ATL: IKE Discussion

[vortex100]

Forgot to mention, the 18Z forecast output from the BAMM, BAMS, and BAMD models indicate the storm's eye will just brush the north coast of Cuba or stay a few miles off shore to the north of Cuba before heading into the GOM.

[Vortex]

I think we've officially worked up to 265 as Ike is stradelling 21.5...

[terrapintransit]

Will this be a chute storm to the Gulf without a significant land interaction?

Let's hope not because if that were the case IKE could just become....well.......

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Please be a wobble cause it looks like north of west

[jaxfladude]

"I Don't Like Ike '08"
A lot of peoples will unfortunately will be saying that from the islands that Ike is forecast to hit/brush by and the GOM landfall wherever that may be.....
Who knows maybe the slogan can be used to raised need cash for Hurricane Ike Relief efforts....

............and the waiting/watching/responding/praying for mode continues...

[abajan]

Winds gusting to storm force now in Turks & Caicos: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78114.html

[jinftl]

Ike is going to be a really tough storm to get a handle of over the next few days....the long-term forecasts are based on subtle changes in heading that aren't set to materialize for some time. Simple geometry will play a role..a heading of 280 degrees vs a heading of 295 degrees commencing over cuba would have huge implications as far as time over land...and eventual landfall in the U.S.

Even something as minor as Ike beginning a slight wnw turn 50 or 75 miles east or west of where he was forecast to could be huge as far as who is in his sights down the road.

Tricky ticky.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html

Please be a wobble cause it looks like north of west

Noticed that.

[carversteve]

I slowed the movement of Ike way down and it looks like he could miss the next forecast point to the north..not a lot..but it won't take much for Ike to miss or just brush the northern coast of cuba.

[Sanibel]

Much better upper presentation with a stronger outflow combined with intensification wobbles. Not good for Turks Caicos.

[tolakram]

Dry air getting in again?

[Vortex]

turks and caicos webcam as the sun is setting 5 minutes ago..what a night there about to never forget.



http://www.wunderground.com/webcams/wpns/1/show.html

[Dean4Storms]

Does appear Ike wobbled to the west, we'll have to wait and see what he does from here.

[mvtrucking]

Texas Division of Emergency Management has an Ike planning conference call scheduled 4:30 Sunday afternoon.

Texas treats any storm within the GOM as a threat to coastal TX. If nothing else, we spin up the shelters and ready the aircraft to transport and receive evacuees from other areas.

I could understand why Texas does that, having what 350-400 miles of coastline? Alot to worry about when these storms get into the gulf.

[PTPatrick]

I think its still West after looking at all the different views...the NW wobble appears to be most likely a lack of convection within the overall eye structure that is much larger and appears to be moving straight west on the not so sensative views. Shortwave shows only a minor wobble north of west while some these enahnced infrared make it look like an actual NW jump.

[AtlanticWind]

I think its still West after looking at all the different views...the NW wobble appears to be most likely a lack of convection within the overall eye structure that is much larger and appears to be moving straight west on the not so sensative views. Shortwave shows only a minor wobble north of west while some these enahnced infrared make it look like an actual NW jump.

Agree , but the south of west movement may have ended

[robbielyn]

I think its still West after looking at all the different views...the NW wobble appears to be most likely a lack of convection within the overall eye structure that is much larger and appears to be moving straight west on the not so sensative views. Shortwave shows only a minor wobble north of west while some these enahnced infrared make it look like an actual NW jump.

totally agree due west and unless it were to start a wnw turn it will plow into cuba through the spine.

[cpdaman]

well that nw jump was tempered by a SW jump in the frames of 22:25/ 22:32/22:40 so far

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... itype=irbw

[PTPatrick]

thats the one bad thing about all the new views the NHC offers such as Rainbow and Funktop...I think in storms without clear eyes they can cause illusions.

[MBryant]

I know I'm fearcasting a little with intensity which is hard in the first place, but it was expected to lose 40 knots due to land interaction and still be 120 knots in 5 days. Could it hit the chute and be 160 knots realistically?