ATL: IKE Discussion

[Sanibel]

It's playing out in the bottom arc of the curve beneath the ridge. Close to trop points - so we won't know for a few hours if it has a better chance of skimming the coast.

The main thing right now is Turks Caicos is about to get clobbered.

[MGC]

Hopefully Ike's affair with Cuba will disrupt his inner core and he will only be a shadow of himself once he gets in the GOM.....MGC

[El Nino]

Recon reports 944mb, not good at all for Cuba.

[Frank P]

Hopefully Ike's affair with Cuba will disrupt his inner core and he will only be a shadow of himself once he gets in the GOM.....MGC

I can guarantee you a plethora of folks along the GOM coast and Keys are hoping so...

[CaneCharmer]

surely looks like a wnw motion to me, folks.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

resumed WSW motion again

Yeah you can see it on the update GOES

eye clears out a little too on the latest IR pix

Last two vortex messages show an almost due west motion and from where I fix it now I'm sure the next vortex message will also continue that trend.

[Brent]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

[meteorologyman]

I just got back from work for hour break so fill me in quick,

Is there still a possibility of Ridge pulling Ike north?
What is most likelty lanfall
Did the G-IV get data regaurding trough and High pressure, if so what the update
Thankyou for filling my empty spots

[tolakram]

Loop in the eye, still moving W/SW if you compare it to the last VDM.

[robbielyn]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

when time did they actually find that motion? cause I dont see a wsw no matter how hard i look.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The future of this system is so incredibly uncertain. It's alot more uncertain than Gustav. I'm not concerned for NOLA just yet...but, I hope we don't have to evacuate again.

[wxman57]

I measure a 3-hr movement of 272.8 deg. at 10.1 kts. 6hr movement 265.4 deg. at 10.5 kts.

[El Nino]

Is there a possibility that first it went SW, then WNW ?

[tolakram]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

when time did they actually find that motion? cause I dont see a wsw no matter how hard i look.

Just a few minutes ago, see the picture above.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

How do you figure that? The last two fixes were 21.32 minutes north and 23.31 minutes north. Hardly WSW.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully Ike's affair with Cuba will disrupt his inner core and he will only be a shadow of himself once he gets in the GOM.....MGC

MGC, actually, I do believe that if it goes over Cuba, it will take a lot out of it, but honestly, I don't think it matters that much, because the conditions suppose to be ripe in the GOF for immediate strengthening once it moves off the coast. And unlike Gustav, Ike, will be taking it sweet time once it gets in the gulf. So it can easily race to a cat 3 or cat 4 by the time it makes landfall.......The only way that Cuba would have an effect is if it dropped it all the way down to a wave again with no LLC, then we would be in good shape, but the chance of a cat 4 going to a wave(even if it crosses the spine) is very very slim....

[Frank P]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

when time did they actually find that motion? cause I dont see a wsw no matter how hard i look.

Do a GOES IR loop, use about 12 frames...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

eye clears out in the last couple of frames

dang, I just can't post pixs anymore

[tolakram]

Recon CONFIRMS it is WSW, not west, not WNW.

How do you figure that? The last two fixes were 21.32 minutes north and 23.31 minutes north. Hardly WSW.

Can you all not see the pictures I'm posting here and in the recon obs thread? Current center is south and west of the previous.

[robbielyn]

The future of this system is so incredibly uncertain. It's alot more uncertain than Gustav. I'm not concerned for NOLA just yet...but, I hope we don't have to evacuate again.

why aren't you concerned just yet? Its headed toward you no doubt in my mind i wish it wasn't mind you but thats the way these storms head they don't go to the ne gulf from this angle.

[miamijaaz]

It has definitely wobbled NW. All you have to do is click on the forecast points to see it's north of the last forecast point. But it's probably just a wobble, nothing more.