ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Blown Away]

a weaker system likely will go more north in the short term. This likely now will bring it over SE Cuba

it is also making me root for 95L to develop, I am quite sick and tired of running high resolution models over high mountains! It is blowing up the tracking algorithm. I'll bail out immediately and switch to 95L if it develops soon

If Gustav jogs a bit more WNW or NW because its weak --- and hits the big mountains of Eastern Cuba its gone for sure.

But we won't be so lucky I'm afraid. Still, its a mess at this point. I'm gradually shifting my attention to 95L which has no 10,000 ft mountains that are wrecking it at the moment.

After watching land lover Fay I will never assume a system is dead until the NHC writes it's last advisory.

[ColdFusion]

This is fantastic news thanks Derek!I'm sure everyone is breathing a sigh of relief now......Phew......... The intensity forecast should be brought down gradually over the next couple of updates...I guess it's always possible though for it to restrengthen into a cane before it hits the gulf states, but at least now it's looking less likely.

Dude, NO

[duris]

Seriously, though, each system is unique from the next, so, all need to be cautious not to compare this to Katrina (I wish the media would read this - every 5 minutes)...

Frank

The media can't even be bothered with facts. Case in point, Reuters story linked on Drudge re: New Orleans considering evacuations. It says "Not since Katrina struck on August 29, 2005, have residents faced a forced departure from their homes and businesses...." Wrong. I was back in the City working on cleaning up my house when Nagin ordered mandatory evacuations when Rita (I think, though for some reason I think it may have even have been Wilma, though it didn't come close) threatened.

[gatorcane]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Andy_L]

Seriously people....Are we really starting the its dead jim chants??? Like Really??? Come on, what do yall expect, it SAT over mountains..

No kidding!! Some of the posts are SO predictable with each storm!!

[Sanibel]

That last Cuban radar makes it look still WNW maybe even 300 degrees.

[BigB0882]

I am getting quite frustrated at everyone claiming this thing is dead. An hour ago everyone was watching as normal and now suddenly its going to amount to nothing? I'm not a professional but I know that a storm doesn't die in an hour! Not when it is sitting over water again. The NHC track doesn't even have it getting back to hurricane strength until tomorrow sometime. Why is anyone going to be shocked that it is still a TS or even a TD today? Tomorrow afternoon if it looks dead, then we can start talking and predicting. People sure are jumpy!

[dwg71]

If he gets anywhere near 20N 75W, I think he's toast over Cuba. He can survive if he stays south. I have my doubts that this is a TS, but doubt NHC would downgrade to a depression - unless it went complete fizzle in the next two hours.

[tolakram]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I can't see any movement in any direction.

I think everyone needs to walk away for a few hours and check back later.

[Wx_Warrior]

NO ONE is predicting anything dead....One person said it looked ragged and the next thing you know, pro wrestling is real.

Who in the heck wants a Cat 4-5? Let Gustav get sheared or hindered.

[Stormcenter]

It almost sounds like some are getting defensive because Gustav looks poor right now. It's a fact and recon confirms it.

[stormy1970al]

Well I am going to have to walk away for about 10 hours because I have to get ready for work and then work till closing tonight. I wonder if people are preparing on the Gulf Coast. If they are we are going to be busy!

[Sanibel]

The convection-less flat edge to the NW side is probably the outline of the High on the storm. What I don't understand is why the High isn't pulling Gus WSW now? Is there a feature to Gus's NE that is puting equal pull on it causing it to even out and drift?

[cpdaman]

thanks for the clarifaction derek i appreciate it

also should it go over SE cuba and die i will win the forecast challenge ha ha ha (actually i really care less about the challenge, in the sense that i will continue to post what i believe this storm will do, and gladly let current conditons and outlooks change my opinion) although i can't speak for others...........

[ConvergenceZone]

a weaker system likely will go more north in the short term. This likely now will bring it over SE Cuba

If it goes over east Cuba, it's *POOF* for sure, especially considering the state it's in now......

[TexasStorm]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I can't see any movement in any direction.

I think everyone needs to walk away for a few hours and check back later.

Yup, everyone wait about 12 hours and let's see what happens. Nothing is going to be solved by arguing about if it is dead or not.

[dwg71]

Latest VM doesnt even support TS strength. 31KT flight level. so maybe 25KTS or so.

[Javlin]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I can't see any movement in any direction.

I think everyone needs to walk away for a few hours and check back later.

That I would have to agree with also a bad angle to judge movement also even the floater is off some to the south.

[cpdaman]

You can clearly see in this loop that it was drifting west and now seems to be more WNW heading for the big mountains of Eastern Cuba.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I can't see any movement in any direction.

I think everyone needs to walk away for a few hours and check back later.

i think this is the best advice, if i didn't take a break for the last 18 hours with this storm, i would be in a very agitated frame of mind

[ConvergenceZone]

Seriously people....Are we really starting the its dead jim chants??? Like Really??? Come on, what do yall expect, it SAT over mountains..

No kidding!! Some of the posts are SO predictable with each storm!!

Hey, when a MET speaks, I listen......They work with these storms on a day in day out basis.....