ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Its funny watching the posts in here now..talking about Gustav dying..yeah would be great, but not likely at all...there is not much land around it now after moving off Hati

Ivanhater, go back and read some of Derek's posts...I think he's on to something..Appears to be heading to Eastern Cuba, and it may do a number on whatever is left of the storm.

I've seen Derek call these things before and a few hours later the NHC is saying the same thing...that's why I listen to what he says...

Ive been in class, but after looking Derek has said nothing like that..and it would be irresponsible for him to do that which is why he didnt...this is a potential disaster and with no models showing this going over land and environmental conditions looking great which is why the models showing RI, calling it dead being likely is humorous, but hey Im with yall, Im hoping, but just dont see it happening

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

Gator, don't think its so much the ULL...Its just now moving away from the eastern side of that ridge...

Did the ridge get eroded on the west side?

[deltadog03]

Not yet.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks delta! Do you think the track will shift east or west during the next
few days?

[oyster_reef]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

Gator, don't think its so much the ULL...Its just now moving away from the eastern side of that ridge...

this was expained to him 4 hours ago by a pro met.
keep it honest gator!

[deltadog03]

Thanks delta! Do you think the track will shift east or west during the next
few days?

Don't really know to be honest....

[twister]

DIE, Gustav, DIE!!!

That would be fantastic!

HERE HERE!! With you on that one!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGFXGwHsD_A

ROFLMBO!!! I was thinking about posting something along the lines of Monty! I think we all could use a good laugh about now!!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thanks! Yes this stuff is really tricky to forecast.

[Frank2]

In the most recent VIS photo, Gustav has almost a trough-like appearance:

http://www.geocities.com/floridaweathersummary/gustav

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In the most recent VIS photo, Gustav has almost a trough-like appearance:

http://www.geocities.com/floridaweathersummary/gustav

Yea I see that trough-type shape...this is very confusing to me...
Right now I am in a big fog of confusion...the forecast was intensification
but I have no clue...

[deltadog03]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Actually I see his enviroment becoming better slowly. Ouflow is already improving on the western and especially the northern side...Go ahead and think this might die...

[CrazyC83]

For those thinking it will do nothing if it enters the Gulf or NW Caribbean as nothing, consider these:

1900 Galveston Hurricane - tropical storm entering the Gulf, strong Category 4 in the NW Gulf before possibly weakening a bit

Hurricane Celia - tropical depression off Cuba entering the Gulf, Category 3/4 at landfall in TX

Hurricane Frederic - tropical storm entering the Gulf, Category 4 off the AL coast before weakening slightly

Hurricane Opal - tropical depression entering the Gulf, strong Category 4 in the Loop Current before weakening

Hurricane Lili - tropical storm approaching W Cuba, Category 4 off the LA coast before rapid weakening

Hurricane Wilma - tropical wave entering the NW Caribbean, we know what happened next...

[dwg71]

He's in life support atm, (imo) - no way its at TS strength.

[twister]

In the most recent VIS photo, Gustav has almost a trough-like appearance:

http://www.geocities.com/floridaweathersummary/gustav

Yea I see that trough-type shape...this is very confusing to me...
Right now I am in a big fog of confusion...the forecast was intensification
but I have no clue...

Gus took a beating over DR and Haiti. He is trying to get his composure back.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The fact that one of the recent discussions mentioned slowly getting
better organized now seems to make sense but adds confusion to my
confounded integration of the aforementioned satellite image.

[Brent]

Well it has stopped weakening(however weak it is). Pressure down 1 mb per recon.

[cpdaman]

Funny thing is that I kept mentioning the ULL and the shear possibilities that would affect Gustav yesterday but I didn't get much of a response.....

was right there with you, i like to now cast, especially when a storm has multiple body's of land full of people to hit or dodge first

[CrazyC83]

Last VDM showed a partial eyewall still with Gustav...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh nevermind, delta I see what you're saying.

Gustav is starting to reintensify.
It will likely follow the NHC forecast.

[Ivanhater]

He's in life support atm, (imo) - no way its at TS strength.

Unless I see an exposed center, this is not on life support..of course it has weakened, but this is not in the middle of a big land mass...hot waters around