ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RevDodd]

Cape Point: I can relate to seeing those models in your sleep!

So, are you figuring the high will stop builing from the west?

I feel it's coming up the coast...whether its on the water side or land side depends on when it makes that turn to the north.

Got a feeling there will be a LOT of additions to this topic come Sunday morning.

[storms in NC]

While I agreed earlier that I saw a more west motion, I have got to say that after looking at this loop a little longer, it now appears that there is more of a WNW motion to the "center" of 92L...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Am I just seeing things?

No I just was looking at the loop myself and it seem to me it is moving more to the WNW now.

And No I don't think this is going into the gulf.That is me saying this not any one Else. But I have read all Pros and all say different. So who do you go with? Well not hard to figure out the NHC would be the one. But it has to become a TD first before saying it will be going any where. I may not do any thing more than it is right now.

[Stormcenter]

Just throwing this out there...the track of Frederic 1979:

I was waiting for someone to post that. I hope that doesn't pan for the good folks of AL.
sake.

[Sanibel]

No comparison to those storms since they started so far out in the Atlantic and have a totally different steering pattern.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I sure hope this thing doesn't head over to Texas. I really think the next big storm that hits the Houston area will be bad. There are still many people who claim they will never evacuate again after Rita (10-20+ hours in the car and the storm ended up going east).

I'm sure that's common, but I just have to think tropical weather isn't taken as serious here as it is in other locations such as Florida.

Oh, Houstonians take it plenty seriously. We get a rain filled tropical storm (Allison! Two different sets of my wife's relatives- a weekend tearing up soaked muddy carpets and carpet pads) or low end hurricane landfalling nearby every few years, and Rita was a near enough miss, that I learned just sustained tropical storm winds can kill my electricity, break branches, knock down a few weak fences, and twist around some traffic signal lights.


But actually, Suffolk County, New York, has more recent experience with a borderline Cat 2/Cat 3 hurricane (Gloria) than the immediate Houston metro does. A major hurricane can hit anywhere in the mainland US form the Mexican Border to New England, but we're in better shape here than in South Florida or the coastal Carolinas.

[rockyman]

Just throwing this out there...the track of Frederic 1979:

I was waiting for someone to post that. I hope that doesn't pan for the good folks of AL.
sake.

Me neither (!)...I was mainly throwing the tracks of Freddy and David out there to show how their Hispaniola interactions

[KWT]

Agreed Gatorcane, just not got enough time to really work its way down to the center.

Will be interesting to see if the old eddy that was south of PR re-strengthens again as the dominant center goes overland?

[Comanche]

Ed,

What is JB's cuurent thinking, he still married to the east coast, or is he talking of GOM possibilities?

As of early AM, still a near miss on Florida and very possibly a major, hitting the Carolinas.

Not implying he willbe wrong, but I have been asubscriber for many years of his until recently (we spend on another service now), his biggest downfall over the years is having an early solution and sticking to it regardless of changes. I have watched him go down in flames too many times by being stubborn. That said, again he may be right but things are looking to be changing against that outcome at the moment.

[Dean4Storms]

Everything hangs in the balance as to where 92L develops a Closed LLC and begins to strengthen. If it can develop in very close proximity (DR, Cuba) to land I can see the trip up to the Bahamas as the GFDL indicates and I don't know if the GFDL takes into account mountains on islands with its development of the LLC. If it doesn't develop by the time it gets to eastern Cuba or develops south of eastern Cuba this system becomes a GOM threat.

[deltadog03]

I see a "center" just NW of the western PR and just NE of the coast of DR. Moving generally WNW. Thats the ONLY possible center out there that I see. The spin south of the islands, as of now, totally looks to be the MLC.

[Sanibel]

Will be interesting to see if the old eddy that was south of PR re-strengthens again as the dominant center goes overland?

Doubt it. That would break a physical rule of poleward gravity. More likely the center would reform more north. The southern center is most likely an inflow eddy enhanced by synoptic tilting of the convection under the ridge.

[gatorcane]

agreed DeltaDog, the "center" is moving WNW and may just skirt the island or traverse the extreme Northern part of it. I also think to watch out for a major blowup of convection just NE of the Dominican Republic.

Look how organized it looks

[Aric Dunn]

I see a "center" just NW of the western PR and just NE of the coast of DR. Moving generally WNW. Thats the ONLY possible center out there that I see. The spin south of the islands, as of now, totally looks to be the MLC.

agreed

[Chacor]

515
WONT41 KNHC 151500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[DESTRUCTION5]

I see a "center" just NW of the western PR and just NE of the coast of DR. Moving generally WNW. Thats the ONLY possible center out there that I see. The spin south of the islands, as of now, totally looks to be the MLC.

Ok we have one Promet agreeing..

[gatorcane]

Here we go and note WNW movement folks.

[NEXRAD]

Everything hangs in the balance as to where 92L develops a Closed LLC and begins to strengthen. If it can develop in very close proximity (DR, Cuba) to land I can see the trip up to the Bahamas as the GFDL indicates and I don't know if the GFDL takes into account mountains on islands with its development of the LLC. If it doesn't develop by the time it gets to eastern Cuba or develops south of eastern Cuba this system becomes a GOM threat.

I agree with this, Dean. In order for the disturbance to steer northward in the Bahamas/offshore Florida region, it will need to be deep enough to have more influence from the mid and upper level ridge weakness (H50 and above). Otherwise, the lower-level ridging seems prone to hold in place, which would favor a more westward track. Then, too, a system that is farther south would likewise fall left of the model guidance.

- Jay

[Aric Dunn]

515
WONT41 KNHC 151500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

radar in DR .. where.. i want it..

[txwatcher91]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[cycloneye]

000
WONT41 KNHC 151500
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN