TC Bertha

[ekal]

That inner eyewall just does not want to give up, does it? Keeping the storm weaker and keeping it from organizing, which is both good and bad.

Indeed. This is the eyewall replacement cycle that never ends!

[cpdaman]

upwelling tick tick tick

think she will be borderline hurricane in 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 JUL 2008 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 29:15:45 N Lon : 62:14:22 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 975.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
4.6 4.9 4.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : -1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -24.0C Cloud Region Temp : -53.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
HURRICANE BERTHA
Friday 11jul08 Time: 2055 UTC
Latitude: 29.03 Longitude: -62.42
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 19 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 968 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 82 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 8mb +/- 9kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 2.42
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 3.78
RMW: 28 km
RMW Source is: TPC
Environmental Pressure: 1014 (TPC)
Satellite: NOAA-15
ATCF data for Month: 07 Day: 11 Time (UTC): 1800

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/atl42.html
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu

[ggg]

this is annular...it will not undergo anymore eyewall replacement cycles while annular. It will also resist weakening in a hostile environment.

[Scorpion]

this is annular...it will not undergo anymore eyewall replacement cycles while annular. It will also resist weakening in a hostile environment.

Yea, perhaps thats why the models have her spinning for the next week.

[HurricaneRobert]

This looks like Epsilon.

[cycloneye]

ATCF latest best track for Bertha: Mantains at 80 kts

AL, 02, 2008071200, , BEST, 0, 293N, 623W, 80, 977, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 15, 30,

[cpdaman]

this is annular...it will not undergo anymore eyewall replacement cycles while annular. It will also resist weakening in a hostile environment.

so are you telling me that this will not weaken due to upwelling because it has annular characteristics (serious question)

i was thinking the effects (due do possible upwelling) would be minimal since it's not like she is a 135 mph storm but still about a 10-15 mph possible weakening.

[MiamiensisWx]

It appears that the center (wind center?) is still moving NW. Long term movement has remained NW as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

TS Warning may be eventually warranted for Bermuda, especially when the large TS wind radii is taken into considerations.

I can still decipher a NW/NNW movement through the latest frame with close scrutiny:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I expect a TS Warning by tomorrow for Bermuda. Note that the latest advisory did not indicate a N movement.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF BERMUDA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO BRING WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THAT ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/112348.shtml

[Chacor]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Bertha is not annular. She still has bands wrapping into her. Until those bands are gone Bertha will not be annular.

[HURAKAN]

Another possible record:

Using "Eye of the Storm" I found nine major hurricanes in the month of July. Storm #4 1909, Storm #1 1916, Storm #2 1916, Storm #1 1926, Anna 1961, Bertha 1996, Dennis 2005, Emily 2005, & Bertha 2008. But I wanted to find which went faster from hurricane to major hurricane and Bertha 2008 takes the flag with just 12 hours. Can anyone confirm this?

[MiamiensisWx]

Another possible record:

Using "Eye of the Storm" I found nine major hurricanes in the month of July. Storm #4 1909, Storm #1 1916, Storm #2 1916, Storm #1 1926, Anna 1961, Bertha 1996, Dennis 2005, Emily 2005, & Bertha 2008. But I wanted to find which went faster from hurricane to major hurricane and Bertha 2008 takes the flag with just 12 hours. Can anyone confirm this?

Storm #4 of 1916 was recently reanalyzed, and it was determined to have reached major hurricane status (100 kt) as well. It struck South Carolina as a strong Cat 2 in July. Interestingly, 1916 featured two major hurricanes in July, both of which struck the CONUS. Storm #2 hit Mississippi at Cat 3 intensity per NOAA's list of United States hurricanes.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1916/2/track.gif

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1916/4/track.gif

Anna 1961 was likely not a major hurricane based on personal research, so it will likely be downgraded in the future.

Based on my analysis, it appears that Bertha 2008 does take the cake in regards to the bolded question.

[HURAKAN]

Thanks for the research, insights, and time.

[gotoman38]

Looks to me that she has stalled in movement.

Bad news for Bermuda, although it's relatively good news for them that they are only catching the outer bands - for now. I hope she drifts E -> S for their sake!

[ggg]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Don't be fooled. This is an annular hurricane. There is no doubt about it. This is also the best category 1 hurricane I have ever seen. This even looks better than a lot of cat 3 hurricanes.

[Chacor]

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008 BERTHA 07/12/08 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

Don't be fooled. This is an annular hurricane. There is no doubt about it. This is also the best category 1 hurricane I have ever seen. This even looks better than a lot of cat 3 hurricanes.

You have no proof for it, so how can there be "no doubt" when the index is saying it's not annular? Provide some proof please.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Still has rainbands, which means not annular.