H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[Bane]

It seems difficult to find a well-defined LLC:

she has had this issue throughout her trek across the atlantic.

[Thunder44]

Dolly Recon Contests are up for the upcoming flights today:

AF at 18z today:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102048

NOAA at 0z tonight:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102049

[cycloneye]

Yes European,they are flying back to base.

[Chacor]

NOAA flight just issued a VDM I notice.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

There is a new Air force flight just now leaving for Dolly

[cycloneye]

We have a LLC:

URNT12 KWBC 211407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1310Z
B. 22 DEG 04 MIN N
89 DEG 10 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 060 DEG 100 NM
F. 130 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 105 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 22 C/473 M
J. 23 C/481 M
K. 21 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0904A DOLLY OB 09 AL042008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 56 KNOTS NE QUAD 1241Z

[cheezyWXguy]

We have a LLC:

URNT12 KWBC 211407
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1310Z
B. 22 DEG 04 MIN N
89 DEG 10 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 060 DEG 100 NM
F. 130 DEG 56 KT
G. 060 DEG 105 NM
H. EXTRAP 1007 MB
I. 22 C/473 M
J. 23 C/481 M
K. 21 C/27 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0904A DOLLY OB 09 AL042008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 56 KNOTS NE QUAD 1241Z

What is the wind extropolation percentage to the surface?

[Thunder44]

Dolly Recon Contests are up for the upcoming flights today:

AF at 18z today:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102048

NOAA at 0z tonight:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102049

Another reminder for the contests. Entrees for the first one, will close in less than one hour.

Also what's up with the TCPOD for tomorrow. They seemed to have to post it a few times this morning, but it keeps coming out incomplete:


000
NOUS42 KNHC 211520
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1120 AM EDT MON 21 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-051
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 22/18Z,21Z

[Chacor]

Just as you say that, it's out in full.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 211545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
11145 AM EDT MON 21 JULY 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JULY 2008
         TCPOD NUMBER.....08-051
I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

    1. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 22/18Z,21Z, & 23/00Z    A. 23/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1604 DOLLY        B. NOAA9 1704A DOLLY
       C. 22/1515Z                C. 22/1730Z
       D. 24.7N 94.5W             D. NA
       E. 22/1700Z TO 23/0000Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. 41000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43    FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 23/0000Z                A. 23/03Z, 06Z, 09Z
       B. NOAA3 1804A DOLLY       B. AFXXX 1904A DOLLY
       C. 22/2030Z                C. 23/0001Z
       D. 25.2N 95.2 W            D. 25.3N 95.5W
       E. 22/2230Z TO 23/0300Z    E. 23/0200Z TO 23/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42     FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
       A. 23/1200Z                A. 23/12Z,15Z,18Z
       B. NOAA2 2004A DOLLY       B. AFXXX 2104A DOLLY
       C. 23/0900Z                C. 23/0900Z
       D. 25.9N 96.4W             D. 25.9N 96.4W
       E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1530Z    E. 23/1100Z TO 23/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 14,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK; CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES.

    3. REMARKS: TASKING ON CRISTOBAL CANCELED AT 21/07Z

 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                       JWP

[americanrebel]

With the NOAA dropping so many sondes and the other flight already trying to get numbers. Is it safe to assume they are trying to figure out all the pressures and SST's around her to try to figure out where she is going.

[Thunder44]

Last reminder for this afternoon's recon contest. It closes in 15 minutes:

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102048

Also keep checking back in the contest forum for more recon contests to go up, until Dolly makes landfall.

[CrazyC83]

Surprised they are flying low since it could easily strengthen rapidly...

[cpdaman]

don't think this will be strengthening rapidly now. it is a large sprawling area and these things take some time to get their core developed. Also the southerly inflow is going to be distrupted thru the evening thanks to the yucatan peninsula. Rapid intensification will be more likely when

1. it consolidates
2. it reaches the warmer waters
3. gets away from yucatan peninsula
4. it slows down

all in my opinion

[littlevince]

i actually like this graphic better. easier to see the direction of the wind.

Yes, it's nice, I find this google earth hack a few days ago.
You can get it here: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=1206119

Still not the perfect one I'm looking for. Better if we can get one GE with barbs and regular labels with altitude.

[Ed Mahmoud]

i actually like this graphic better. easier to see the direction of the wind.

Yes, it's nice, I find this google earth hack a few days ago.
You can get it here: http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=1206119

Still not the perfect one I'm looking for. Better if we can get one GE with barbs and regular labels with altitude.

That is a cool graphic, but I didn't think they had a WC-141 Starlifter hurricane recon plane.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 211730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 21/17:11:20Z
B. 22 deg 42 min N
090 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 44 kt
E. 072 deg 044 nm
F. 130 deg 043 kt
G. 071 deg 047 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 20 C/ 368 m
J. 23 C/ 368 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. /01
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 1004A DOLLY OB 05
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 16:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
DECENT RADAR BANDING INDICATING CENTER

Possible eyewall forming here?

[txwatcher91]

I thought it interesting the eye temp differential is up to 3C which indicates a healthier Dolly, earlier I believe it was 1C.

[RL3AO]

Recon is getting ready to make a SE-NW pass.

[Aric Dunn]

what was the deal with all those 0 kt obs.. that seemed weird maybe a malfunction

[cycloneye]

Another VDM,pressure down 1 mb:

URNT12 KNHC 211913
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 21/19:01:00Z
B. 22 deg 46 min N
090 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 32 kt
E. 107 deg 32 nm
F. 179 deg 031 kt
G. 108 deg 033 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 22 C/ 365 m
J. 23 C/ 365 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234/1
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF308 1004A DOLLY OB 08
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 16:55:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 87 / 13NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.