ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[ericinmia]

For whatever its worth... the FSU mm5 has an interesting track. This is the 18km resolution, they usually only run the higher res on developed storms. I know Derek uses some variation of this over at U of M, and it would be interesting to see what their output was???

[Stratosphere747]

TAFB wind forecast shows 94L moving generally NW or WNW towards Jamaica:

[ROCK]

TAFB wind forecast shows 94L moving generally NW or WNW towards Jamaica:

Yeah, Scott just what WXMN57 said in the other thread. Expect another shift again tonight? I dont know but he made a strong case for more westward run possibly Yucatan.....

[tpr1967]

18z run of gfs some weakness in east gulf 144 hrs and beyond.

144hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
168hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
180hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180l.gif

similar s and sw flow 200-300mb.your thoughts on possible impact on steering on 94L
down the road.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL shoots the channel after barely feelng the weakness..

[SouthFLTropics]

18Z GFDL shoots the channel after barely feelng the weakness..

Link please???

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL shoots the channel after barely feelng the weakness..

Link please???

Should be public any Sec..

[ericinmia]

18Z GFDL shoots the channel after barely feelng the weakness..

Link please???

Should be public any Sec..

Yeah, its been on the accuweather pro site... but sadly we can't post that.

[Stratosphere747]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Good thing Models don't verify 7 days out...

[KWT]

Thats utterly amazing and also pretty scary...however it does have this down to 993mbs in 36hrs so that may well be a little agressive, still that is suggesting some pretty perky conditions for 94L....if that doesn't gain attention nothing will though...

[deltadog03]

I am not saying that the GFDL will happen, we don't know yet, but thats certainly possible...IMO Obviously it can't go into the islands north of where it is now. This run just shows me that conditions look very favorable if it stays in the Carrib...

[DESTRUCTION5]

HWRF humps the whole Country of Cuba in the 18Z and of course is weaker due to land Interaction...

[rockyman]

:uarrow: Good thing Models don't verify 7 days out...

That's in only about 5 days...let's hope they don't verify that far out either...I'll be in New Orleans next weekend...maybe

[SouthFLTropics]

Well now...that run will get Texas and Louisiana's attention won't it?

SFT

[KWT]

Well all depends on how the shear is deltadog, of course the heat content is easily there for such a system to form but we shall see, lets hope it doesn't do that!

[Wx_Warrior]

Floridans don't want EURO model...it all pans out in the long run

[Sanibel]

GFDL has been a little aggressive lately. So split the difference and make it 99KTS and 968 in the Channel.

[Clipper96]

Well all depends on how the shear

What it really depends on is Fay getting out of the way like she was told.

GFDL has been a little aggressive lately. So split the difference and make it 99KTS and 968 in the Channel.

If it's a cat-1 before Jamaica, it could easily be a cat-5 before the Channel. It is the place where weaker storms with existing closed eyewalls undergo explosive intensification.

[RL3AO]

Is that the first GFDL run to hit cat 5 this year?