ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Please correct me if I'm wrong but does the HPC show a weaker Gustav in the GOM
compared to a strong hurricane in NW Carribean?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.html

[shawn67]

I can see now where the center is on this radar. Its a half curved band just north of the tip of the island. It actually looks like it slowly getting more defined:



Thoughts?

Nice Catch!!! Congratulations for helping to bring sanity back to the board.

[dwg71]

NHC 10AM coordinates 18.8N 74.4W, latest vortex 19.1N 74.2W... where is my mistake??? Thats NNE isnt it?

[CrazyC83]

Right now, based on earlier SFMR readings, I'd say 40 kt for the intensity.

[Nexus]

[CrazyC83]

NHC 10AM coordinates 18.8N 74.4W, latest vortex 19.1N 74.2W... where is my mistake??? Thats NNE isnt it?

That is because they didn't place the center correctly - it was a guess before Recon came in.

[TideJoe]

I can see now where the center is on this radar. Its a half curved band just north of the tip of the island. It actually looks like it slowly getting more defined:



Thoughts?

Nice Catch!!! Congratulations for helping to bring sanity back to the board.

Looks like it's moving just north of due west.

[dwg71]

Right now, based on earlier SFMR readings, I'd say 40 kt for the intensity.

I would go 35Kts, for the sake of not going down below TS strength at next advisory. Just my uniformed opinion.

[gatorcane]

There is a funnel of dry stable air being ushered in on the NW side of Gustav -- it should only further limit intensification for the time being.

[dwg71]

Its not due west, VM clearly shows a WNW direction 305 or so.

[SoupBone]

Who said Gustav is dead.

000
URNT12 KNHC 271957
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 27/19:24:30Z
B. 19 deg 04 min N
074 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1433 m
D. 25 kt
E. 225 deg 35 nm
F. 306 deg 017 kt
G. 233 deg 071 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1525 m
J. 19 C/ 1528 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0507A GUSTAV OB 08
MAX FL WIND 32 KT E QUAD 18:07:10 Z
CURVED BAND N-SE INDICATED ON RADAR

nobody, but should he go 305 degrees for another 24 hours he maybe found dead over cuba (35% chance IM amateur idiotic opinion )

i think he will re-strenghen enough just prior to cuban landfall to feel the deep layer ridge and move due west (in about 6 or so hours)

Ok now here is what I don't understand and don't take this as an attack. Why would you say he might die over Cuba, give no evidence to support it, then give a disclaimer that you are an idiot? I mean why even post at all if this is what you have to offer? I just don't get it. Again I'm not bashing you at all I'm just trying to figure some of you guys out.

[Air Force Met]

NHC 10AM coordinates 18.8N 74.4W, latest vortex 19.1N 74.2W... where is my mistake??? Thats NNE isnt it?

I think what we may have is a loose low level circulation with some vortices rotating around. The radar and 1KM vis don't show the 310 motion...so there may still be some low level interaction with Haiti going on and the low level center.

It is also possible that the 10am estimate was off a bit.

[mutley]

I can see now where the center is on this radar. Its a half curved band just north of the tip of the island. It actually looks like it slowly getting more defined:



Thoughts?

Well, it's either that one, or the other one on the western tip that shows up at the end of the loop. It doesn't seem to be moving as much.

Never mind, it disappeared.

[hiflyer]

I can see now where the center is on this radar. Its a half curved band just north of the tip of the island. It actually looks like it slowly getting more defined:

Thoughts?

Immediate thought is that I am unsure how much attenuation the Cuban radar site is under....they have been showing that same 'reflection' right at the site all day which just may be blocking a clearer image of what you are referencing....I suspect the close in false returns may be due to they are just as curious as anyone else and are running that site 'hot' going for max long range returns.

Does anyone know if the Gitmo site is back on the web for public use? Can't find a link....arrrggghhh

[Air Force Met]

Its not due west, VM clearly shows a WNW direction 305 or so.

Remember...sometimes you can't get a true motion based on the vortex from a loose low level center. Sometimes the vorticee will swirl around the main circulation center...going NW..then W...then sometimes WSW....while the main LLC goes west.

Not saying this is what is happening...but it is a possibility.

[tolakram]

Can we all agree that it should be moving W/NW according to the NHC?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Gitmo radar looks useless...


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[tolakram]

Gitmo radar looks useless...


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

That may have been the weather on the 10th of June, 2008.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Back later, but unofficially, I'm feeling better now that all reliable models keep Gustav well clear of Texas.

[ColdFusion]

New popping occuring near center, see if it continues...