ATL: IKE Discussion

[Vortex]

I noticed on the 00z the BAMD has not budged from the 18z and moves Ike over the central Keys..When if ever is the bamd good?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think over the next 6 hours a nice clear eye should pop out and red bands should wrap around it. I think the next recon could find flight level winds of 140 knots=126 knots at the surface by 5-6 hours. I also feel that the pressure could drop below 938 millibars tonight.

I believe that Ike was more like 135 knots at its peak. I don't believe a soild red CDO 80-100 nmi thick, with a clear eye, makes for this being at tops 125 knots. If this is 115 knots then that was stronger then 125 knots.

[CrazyC83]

Wasn't there suppose to be AF303 in there right now? What happened to it?

High-level environment flight.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

Can you post a pic to back up your suggestion please?

IR loop

[physicx07]

I noticed on the 00z the BAMD has not budged from the 18z and moves Ike over the central Keys..When if ever is the bamd good?

Pretty much never IMHO

[gtalum]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

Can you post a pic to back up your suggestion please?

IR loop

Those are just wobbles. It's still averaging ~260.

[lonelymike]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

Can you post a pic to back up your suggestion please?

IR loop

Actually according to the new 00z model runs(once with the gulfstream data) I'd be paying attention to yourself in TX

[Cyclenall]

Wasn't there suppose to be AF303 in there right now? What happened to it?

High-level environment flight.

I recall you posted that you were only going to post the data when it got to operational height.

[MiamiensisWx]

Climatology for September major hurricanes passing within 100 nmi of Ike's 8 p.m. (AST) coordinates:

http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/1708/ike2008atlclimo1ac1.png

Data set encompasses 1851 to 2007. Data clearly indicates that Ike is entering uncharted territory in the available historical records.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW. I think the Southward component of motion might be almost over, and a West or even West-Northwest motion may be about to commence. I'd still pay attention in South Florida.


I could be completely wrong, however.

Can you post a pic to back up your suggestion please?

IR loop

Those are just wobbles. It's still averaging ~260.

Not the eye, the outflow on the Western side, it is bulging a little WNW...

[canetracker]

Climatology for September major hurricanes passing within 100 nmi of Ike's 8 p.m. (AST) coordinates:

http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/1708/ike2008atlclimo1ac1.png

Data set encompasses 1851 to 2007.

Great graphic. I also like the heading of: Ike enters uncharted territory.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Which of the 0Z runs that started less than two hours ago do you have access to? If it is the BAMs, I'm not concerned...

[El Nino]

Wow Derek Ortt forecast goes to C-GOM with a 120kts cane. Scary for Texas !

[cpdaman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

miami i think that may be why max is not letting his guard down yet......

[Nimbus]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW.

It does not look like the steering has come around that much yet. The ridge is moving east and it does look the steering will be toward the WNW fairly soon.

With Ike slowing down that could mean a WNW motion could begin before landfall in Cuba.

The slowdown obviously makes a difference since it gives the ridge longer to move east.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agee about the post regarding Texas...Based upon the latest model plots, this very well may be a Texas storm, with lots of Warm Juicy Gulf air to fuel the fire..... Yikes!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

[Rainband]

timing is everything.

[Vortex]

I remeber in 1999 a storm called Irene was forecasted to make landfall Tampa north while over the NW carribean..This was october and I looked through history with a storm in the exact location of Irene and based on direction and time of year I could find less than handfull of storms that even came close to what the models indicated..Irene made landfall over the keys and extreme SE Florida..The point is if you live in the keys and/or south florida pay attention until the storm has passes south and west..I suppose there is a first time for everything but climatology would argue strongly against the models but this is the here and now..

[Sanibel]

I think I see a suggestion of a bulge of the outflow to the WNW

I see what he means. Even better watch the linear thin cloud band in the NW part of the frame slide west like an upside down indicator needle. Hmm. If it stays closer to the coast you'll know why. It could be nothing or it could be the ridge reaching its limit and rotating its orientation.

[robbielyn]

baynews9 met states that the ridge is currently keeping ike from increasing in latitude and that the trough in the northeast would normally pick it up but then the ridge builds in west enough and slows ike down so that the second trough misses that and thats why it will spin in the gulf and then will head nw toward la but take a sharp curve to the mobile area. that ridge will be floridas saving grace but whoa for mobile or la.

Could you post the link to baynews 9 please. I would like to see that since I live in the Mobile area and I am very concern about where Ike is going since several people see to think it could hit near my area. Thank you!

To be fair to you stormy1970al: I just watched his repeat forecast for ike and i want to clarify what he said. Theres the ridge keeping it south for now, and the ne trough would pick it up on wed but the ridge builds in just enough in the carolinas to block the trough from lifting it and the second trough on sat will bring it north toward la and then you but he said this is not written in stone at all don't pay attention to the landfall it could come possibly closer to the panhandle so dont ring the alarm just be vigilant as we all are.