ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

well McIdas or standard GOES imagery still shows it's there. I'll grant it's thinning (the dry air) but the ULL will take a while to fill in. the battle goes on

[txwatcher91]

well McIdas or standard GOES imagery still shows it's there. I'll grant it's thinning (the dry air) but the ULL will take a while to fill in. the battle goes on

Yeah, I don't expect the ULL to go away, but as Hanna moves more N she MAY have less shear from it, but it is hard to tell, at least for me.

Notice the outflow on the S, SE, and E quads beginning to form? That is a sign of an organizing TS IMO.

[BensonTCwatcher]

yeah king of watching the se edge of the center cloud tops to get feathery. she might have the gas to push out the dry air. I think the factor is the changing angle of the shear . we'll see what happened when we wake up tomorrow i guess

[cpdaman]

benson before you go

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

how does this thing turn north? or NNW or why would it change from wnw

never mind i can see the SE periphery of the mid level ridge off mid atlantic pivoting , creating more se-NW flow to hanna's NE , instead of the e-w flow from 3 hours ago

however the big atlantic ridge may be sliding west and push hanna with it :O

[txwatcher91]

benson before you go

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

how does this thing turn north? or NNW or why would it change from wnw

I believe the high will slide east some and allow more NNW or N tomorrow afternoon, or either a weakness will be created by the cold front, not sure which.

Outflow beginning to develop. Question is, will she eliminate the dry air? I say yes.

[cpdaman]

hanna recon just took off!

the bad news is it took off from biloxi, MS cue the snickers commercial "not going anywhere for a while"

[BensonTCwatcher]

maybe so, if it does it should start by the morning

[bree4bryce]

They closed schools tomorrow for my area (beaufort county, SC)and I think they are way off base.

Beufort closing seemed a little overdone considering Berkely is only closing schools 90 min early and Dorchester staggered closings. Chas and Georgetown co. voluntary evac east of 17.
As for Hanna's flare up, I've been watching the IR every night and I know that I'm a big amateur but she usually sucks in the eve not flares.
Question: why the disclaimer? If you read the rules then you know that no matter what people write we ALL know it's not official no matter what unless it comes from a .gov website (even then it's a dartboard shot).
I've been lurking for about 5 years or so...'listening' to ya'll has REALLY helped with Hubby calling me a dork.

[cpdaman]

ummm............

txwatcher (sorry anyone)

check out this radar and tell me if you can make out a center about 4/5 of the way east

between fort pierce and west palm beach

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

recon gonna be muy interestanto

[BensonTCwatcher]

we'll see if this convection holds ( i hope it doesn't) but the convective band to the east is holding and I do see evidence of a little better outflow. an organizing TS.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For those interested. I'm now bloging about Hanna's threat to my general area, powerful Ike (just it case he pulls a "Floyd"), and the nor'easter like system that caused weekend flooding in parts of Nova Scotia:

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/

[tolakram]

[txwatcher91]

ummm............

txwatcher (sorry anyone)

check out this radar and tell me if you can make out a center about 4/5 of the way east

between fort pierce and west palm beach

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... X&loop=yes

recon gonna be muy interestanto

On GR2 high resolution, I don't see any evidence of a circulation there, I think it is the shear pushing clouds two different ways. The far eastern part has 45K storm tops.

EDIT: Look at the northernmost island, I see some 60K tops there and that may be close to the center, hard to tell.

[cpdaman]

that convective burst is still going strong

and we have a marine advisory for the waters in E coastal florida (appears we are getting on the periphery of the gusty winds)

[baitism]

Dry air intrusion should be over by morning. It will be interesting to see where Hanna goes from there.

[LarryWx]

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 27.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90 KM...NORTH OF
GREAT ABACO ISLAND AND ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...SOUTH OF
WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA.

So, Hanna has moved 0.9 W vs. only 0.7 N since 11 PM. This clearly is moving SW of the 11 PM track and continues the tendency to do this since THU afternoon. I'm now expecting a landfall of the center further SW than the current ~NC/SC border projection.

11 AM advisory had it at 28.7 N, 77.2 W as of 8 AM Fri. So, it is a whopping 1.5 degrees further south than projected then at the 77.2 W longitude!!

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET, GFDL and CMC are all well SW of their prior runs. The 0Z UKMET and GFDL now hit all of the way down near Charleston vs. their 18Z respective runs near the NC/SC border. This is a solid 100 mile SW path change.
I'm expecting the 5 AM NHC track to be shifted well to the SW from the 11 PM track, which hits near the NC/SC border.

[jinftl]

3 am sky and wind observations across south florida:
(from nws miami)

W PALM BEACH RAIN NW22G31
FTLAUDERDALE RAIN W16G24
POMPANO BEACH HVY RAIN W22G29

[jhpigott]

3 am sky and wind observations across south florida:
(from nws miami)

W PALM BEACH RAIN NW22G31
FTLAUDERDALE RAIN W16G24
POMPANO BEACH HVY RAIN W22G29

this is wild - here in south florida we've been under the influence of tropical weather for almost the past 2 or 3 weeks. Fay gave us a good soaking and hung around awhile. Then we were under the influence of Gustav's outer periphery for a number of days (had a real good feeder band come thru last saturday). Catching the western periphery of Hanna as she scoots off to the NW and then, obviously, all eyes on Ike

[gatorcane]

Here in West Palm Beach, I'm seeing near Tropical Storm Force wind gusts and *alot* of rain.

Maybe TS Warnings should have been issued?