ATL: IKE Discussion

[cpdaman]

usuallly with model concenus taking this well south of miami-wpb i would have my guard down all the way

lots of people don't give much cred to climo but when there wasn't a storm in 150 years in the position ike is that has missed effecting south fl to the south west i will happilly await him going away per satelite.

[robbielyn]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html OK I am ready to concede it was a wobble that was happening. I saw this just now and at the forecast point it went a sliver north and everyone said that it looked like it was going wnw. Right after the slight north it jumps the forecast point. it's almost like it saw the forecast point and went north around it like it was in its way or something and now its headed wsw towards the next forecast point. looks to be on target with the next forecast point actually. So it was just a wobble that was all. wow i learned something tonight.

[bucman1]

I have to respectfully disagree with the poster who said Brian Mcclure of

baynews 9 said the high will be Florida's saving grace.

What he did say and I am paraprasing is that in the short term the forecast is pretty straight

forward and Ike will be in the central gulf around Weds and may meander for a few days and

wait for the 2nd trough to pick it up by causing the high to retreat.

He said it could go to LA but don't extrapolite the models as meaning it will.

It could go NW ,North or east as timing will be the determining factor.

[robbielyn]

I have to respectfully disagree with the poster who said Brian Mcclure of

baynews 9 said the high will be Florida's saving grace.

What he did say and I am paraprasing is that in the short term the forecast is pretty straight

forward and Ike will be in the central gulf around Weds and may meander for a few days and

wait for the 2nd trough to pick it up by causing the high to retreat.

He said it could go to LA but don't extrapolite the models as meaning it will.

It could go NW ,North or east as timing will be the determining factor.

That would be me and a few posts above i did an edit as i missed a few things the first time. but the peninsula should be ok and that i heard him say for next weeks forecast on wednesday.

[MBryant]

I really don't want to evacuate again, but I will if necessary. It is looking like the same areas threatened by Gustav will be threatened by Ike.

[tolakram]

My daily climatology opinion.

The way I look at those history maps is that you can make only one statement.

It's rare for a cat 3+ hurricane to be where Ike is today. In aprox 150 years of hurricane tracking there have only been 17 (is that what I count?) storms of cat3 or greater near where Ike is now. Stop.

Since we've only seen 17 storms you can't really say it's rare for Ike to travel the way he is. It might be, but we've only witnessed 17 storms. Earlier today that number was only 9. 150 years is nothing in climatology, the earths systems work over a much longer scale. I get the same feeling that this is a rare one, but I'm not so sure we can actually say it's rare for a hurricane to move SW around a strong ridge in early September. We just don't have enough data. Just think how unfun hurricane tracking will be 150 years from now. They'll know where one will form, what track it will take, and who to evacuate and when.

[robbielyn]

I really don't want to evacuate again, but I will if necessary. It is looking like the same areas threatened by Gustav will be threatened by Ike.

I don't know where orange tx is is it the ne coast next to la? I was thinking that ike is alot smaller maybe it won't be that bad in your area.

[robbielyn]

My daily climatology opinion.

The way I look at those history maps is that you can make only one statement.

It's rare for a cat 3+ hurricane to be where Ike is today. In aprox 150 years of hurricane tracking there have only been 17 (is that what I count?) storms of cat3 or greater near where Ike is now. Stop.

Since we've only seen 17 storms you can't really say it's rare for Ike to travel the way he is. It might be, but we've only witnessed 17 storms. Earlier today that number was only 9. 150 years is nothing in climatology, the earths systems work over a much longer scale. I get the same feeling that this is a rare one, but I'm not so sure we can actually say it's rare for a hurricane to move SW around a strong ridge in early September. We just don't have enough data. Just think how unfun hurricane tracking will be 150 years from now. They'll know where one will form, what track it will take, and who to evacuate and when.

Ike looks like a betsy track no? what year was betsy?

[Frank P]

1965

Betsy never crossed Cuba if my memory serves me correct

[stormy1970al]

I think this Betsy was 1956. Or should that be 1965 (edited to change the year)

[fasterdisaster]

Is dry air getting entrained into his core right now?

[robbielyn]

1965

Did I ask what year betsy was? No I didn't do that did I Dah me. hey i have been staring at this all week long my eyes are bugging out on me lol

[tolakram]

1965

Betsy never crossed Cuba if my memory serves me correct

None of those storms crossed Cuba and none hit Texas.

[stormy1970al]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... y1965.html

[MBryant]

I really don't want to evacuate again, but I will if necessary. It is looking like the same areas threatened by Gustav will be threatened by Ike.

I don't know where orange tx is is it the ne coast next to la? I was thinking that ike is alot smaller maybe it won't be that bad in your area.

It's on I-10 at the Louisiana border. Another way to locate it is to look for the intersection of Rita and Humberto.

Gustav caused us to evacuate, but there was no damage as it's winds and heavy rains stayed to our east.

[robbielyn]

1965

Betsy never crossed Cuba if my memory serves me correct

According to the above spaghetti models no it didn't but its the closest one to ike's track so far i think.

[Diva]

I don't know where orange tx is is it the ne coast next to la?

Orange, Texas is in Southeast Texas, right on the border with Louisiana. Lake Charles is our neighbor to the east by about 40 miles or so.

[tpr1967]

Note though that trough in 48-72 hrs is a proggressive trough not a digging trough. Thats
way most likely Ike gets left behind to go westward.

[tolakram]

Is dry air getting entrained into his core right now?

I don't see it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Are we in an eclipse yet?

[HouTXmetro]

Iv'e seen some weird things in this area, anyone think this could make it through the windward passage between Cuba and Haiti?