ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[dwg71]

accuweather graphic now shows central LA coast. Being outsid the NHC cone, was too much for JB to risk. he moved east.

I will stick with my original PCB, FL cat 3 prediction. Can't bring myself to ever change my initial projections...

[Brent]

Any news out of Hati?

22 reported dead.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?fi ... rldupdates

[dwg71]

5 day ending point is identical between last two NHC forecasts. 28.5N 88.5W, i guess just a slower path.

Or...we have no idea where its going yet...and we aren't going to show someone getting creamed by a major hurricane...

The cynic in me thought the same, but didn't want to go there. Even a minor extension would have sent NOLA into full panic mode.. I think they backed off a bit on purpose.

[Stormcenter]

Well this excerpt from the 5pm discussion.
It should make everyone along the Gulf
coast feel comfortable.


It is important to note that there still remains significant
uncertainty regarding Gustav's ultimate track at days 3-5...and it
is much too soon to know what impact this system may have on the
northern Gulf Coast.

I'm almost willing to Wager making a bet similar to Ed if anything came towards upper TX Coast. I just don't see that happening. I think the NHC's track for landfall now is dead on give or take 75 miles east or west.

UNOFFICIAL FORECAST

If it were 3 days out I buy into that but not 5 days out.

[Agua]

Many a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. Three days is a long time for a TC forecast, much less 5+. This thing still has to navigate the long windward passage for the track to verify. I wouldn't put $3 on that happening. No basis for that other than the uncertain nature of forecasting these things.

Just an individual opinion with no scientific testing of factual data and offered solely on the basis of limited experience.

[CrazyC83]

With 1000/34, the pressure is probably around 997mb right now.

[cycloneye]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

[Cookiely]

Given the coordinates of the five day track and taking into consideration evacuation time and error of three hundred miles how do they determine the evacuation of the oil platforms? Are the mobile ones mobile enough to get out of the way of Gustav? Which way would you send them - Mexico?
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/ ... 204640.gif

[Ivanhater]

Blow up over center

[gatorcane]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

I don't think there will be too much, if any, of an effect.

What I am going to watch for now is that 95L becomes the main player and actually hinders rapid development of Gustav.....a possible saving grace for those upstream of Gustav.

I don't see Gustav and 95L both deepening quickly at the same time. I think its one or the other unless Gustav can get far enough away from 95L.

[Stormcenter]

Blow up over center

It's looking good on the positive end if you know what I mean.

[RL3AO]

Dropsonde shows a pressure of 998 to 999mb

[pojo]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

[WmE]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

Wouldn't this possible Fujiwhara interaction affect the track of 95L mores since it is weaker?

[jasons2k]

5 day ending point is identical between last two NHC forecasts. 28.5N 88.5W, i guess just a slower path.

Or...we have no idea where its going yet...and we aren't going to show someone getting creamed by a major hurricane...

The cynic in me thought the same, but didn't want to go there. Even a minor extension would have sent NOLA into full panic mode.. I think they backed off a bit on purpose.

The discussion references that steering currents may slow significantly. That will make the ultimate landfall very uncertain, possibly up until the bitter end.

[tolakram]

Good write up by Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[jasons2k]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

I don't think there will be too much, if any, of an effect.

What I am going to watch for now is that 95L becomes the main player and actually hinders rapid development of Gustav.....a possible saving grace for those upstream of Gustav.

I don't see Gustav and 95L both deepening quickly at the same time. I think its one or the other unless Gustav can get far enough away from 95L.

I don't see that happening. And the Euro depiction isn't a pretty one, but you might get your storm after all.

[pojo]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

Wouldn't this possible Fujiwhara interaction affect the track of 95L mores since it is weaker?

most of the time the weaker storm is 'merged' into the stronger storm... in this case Gustav may merge with 95L.

Time will tell.... Heck were still trying to figure out Gustav.

[gatorcane]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

it depends on the distance between Gustav and 95L, the upper level steering currents, and the future tracks. We may see a Fujiwara effect between these storms, but we won't know unless 95L develops.

Wouldn't this possible Fujiwhara interaction affect the track of 95L mores since it is weaker?

At this point I'm not sure which one is stronger, 95L is definitely much larger right now and increasing in organization faster than Gustav but we know things can change.

[Derek Ortt]

A question for the pro mets.If 95L develops into a Tropical Cyclone,will it affect the track of Gustav?

too far apart