ATL: IKE Discussion

[Vortex]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[robbielyn]

I really don't want to evacuate again, but I will if necessary. It is looking like the same areas threatened by Gustav will be threatened by Ike.

I don't know where orange tx is is it the ne coast next to la? I was thinking that ike is alot smaller maybe it won't be that bad in your area.

It's on I-10 at the Louisiana border. Another way to locate it is to look for the intersection of Rita and Humberto.

Gustav caused us to evacuate, but there was no damage as it's winds and heavy rains stayed to our east.

I think this will be east of you by quite a bit so maybe just ts winds. the hurricane winds don't expand too far out. I hope you don't have to evacuate.

[MBryant]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/betsy1965.html

I shouldn't forget Audrey in 1957 either.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like he could actually be south of the next forecast point at this rate.

[stormy1970al]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looks like it is going through the passage between Cuba and the Keys. Not that far off from earlier today, is it? Just one model though so I am going to sit back and just read.

[jinftl]

Trying to speculate if there is an increase in threat to a specific location on the Gulf Coast... for a landfall that is more than 120 hours out...by looking at wobbles Ike is making now, by looking at what the exact heading now is (255 or 265 degrees), by speculating if 12 miles/hour is a significant slowdown in forward speed...is like trying to gauge what the impact is of slightly changing the angle you stand at with a pool cue when hitting the 6-ball to set the 10-ball into motion at an angle so it hits the 4-ball into the left corner pocket.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know where orange tx is is it the ne coast next to la? I was thinking that ike is alot smaller maybe it won't be that bad in your area.

It's on I-10 at the Louisiana border. Another way to locate it is to look for the intersection of Rita and Humberto.

Gustav caused us to evacuate, but there was no damage as it's winds and heavy rains stayed to our east.

I think this will be east of you by quite a bit so maybe just ts winds. the hurricane winds don't expand too far out. I hope you don't have to evacuate.

Friendly request: Please don't say something like this w/o a disclaimer when s/he is well within the cone.

[Frank P]

Now looks to be due east of the gap between Little Inagua Island and Great Inagua Island

[MBryant]

Trying to speculate if there is an increase in threat to a specific location on the Gulf Coast... for a landfall that is more than 120 hours out...by looking at wobbles Ike is making now, by looking at what the exact heading now is (255 or 265 degrees), by speculating if 12 miles/hour is a significant slowdown in forward speed...is like trying to gauge what the impact is of slightly changing the angle you stand at with a pool cue when hitting the 6-ball to set the 10-ball into motion at an angle so it hits the 4-ball into the left corner pocket.

~I do that all the time.~

[fasterdisaster]

Is dry air getting entrained into his core right now?

I don't see it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Are we in an eclipse yet?

1. I could have been imagining it since now I look again it could have just been the rotation of storms from his west to east quadrants.
2. Yes.

[Vortex]

00Z Nam shifts north and misses cuba with a wnw heading and a significant threat to the fl keys..I believe this run is with the information filltered in from recon today.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[fasterdisaster]

When is the next recon mission?

[Derek Ortt]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

its the NAM... no need for concern

[stormy1970al]

Matt Barrentine on Fox Ten in Mobile just commented on Ike. He said it is way too early to know exactly where Ike is going. They will know more when Ike enters the Gulf on Tuesday or Wednesday. Just be prepare and many of us already got our stuff when Gustav was in the Gulf. The main thing I will have to do is gas up my car.

[Sanibel]

Can't imagine what the NAM is seeing with that avoidance of Cuba. Now I'll have to check in over night. We'll once and for all find out if the NAM is always wrong.

[robbielyn]

Trying to speculate if there is an increase in threat to a specific location on the Gulf Coast... for a landfall that is more than 120 hours out...by looking at wobbles Ike is making now, by looking at what the exact heading now is (255 or 265 degrees), by speculating if 12 miles/hour is a significant slowdown in forward speed...is like trying to gauge what the impact is of slightly changing the angle you stand at with a pool cue when hitting the 6-ball to set the 10-ball into motion at an angle so it hits the 4-ball into the left corner pocket.

Man you're good thats an excellent illustration if I say so myself!!

[fasterdisaster]

00Z Nam shifts north and misses cuba with a wnw heading and a significant threat to the fl keys..I believe this run is with the information filltered in from recon today.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Oh goody. Let's hope NAM is an outlier.

[Frank P]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Looks like it is going through the passage between Cuba and the Keys. Not that far off from earlier today, is it? Just one model though so I am going to sit back and just read.

Yeah, NAM never goes over Cuba, it that were to come to fruition Ike better start moving WNW and soon.. Ike looks to be right on the NHC track ATTM

[HURAKAN]

Powerful Ike.

[Stormcenter]

What did the best with Gustav?