ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Chacor]

Quite a large windfield.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

[Jagno]

Do you think the MGC/AL coasts are in the clear?

I think we are in the clear right now according to the track but with any storm entering the GOM anyone along the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on it because things can change in a second.

...and there is some magical force that makes GOM TCs more "unpredictable" than others in the other (non-special) regions of the Atlantic basin. Gotcha.

This is not going to Louisiana or points east.

Pretty bold statement considering even the pro's don't make these types of assumptions before a system has even entered the GOM; even if I do pray you are correct.

[rockyman]

Probabilities:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ml#a_topad

[weatherguru18]

I suspect the track will be pretty close to what the models have. I'm not looking for any big surprises. If they had a recurve to Tampa, that would be a surprise (or my roomate putting down a cupcake), but I think the cone of destruction will be from Freeport to northern Mexico.

[cycloneye]

[deltadog03]

I would be shocked if this came in at 60kts.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm so tired of some people assuming that this may become a major hurricane. Intensity will depend on the structure as it enters the SW Gulf of Mexico.

[Just Joshing You]

I would be shocked if this came in at 60kts.

Do you mean you think it will be stronger, or weaker?

And this track is eerily similar to Emily of 05.

[cycloneye]

I would be shocked if this came in at 60kts.

What do you mean delta?

[cpdaman]

i think this llc had better get strong, to survive a trip across the yucatan in about 10 hours

[Ivanhater]

Time and time again we have seen center relocations, especially with the weak LLC it has now will be disrupted by land tonight and most of the energy it to the NE, classic example of center relocation...

[deltadog03]

I would be suprised if it came in that weak. Sure, it can happen, but give the conditions that are forecasted...should be a cane.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah, but number of storms overall, we're not that far behind. As far as Dolly goes, I would think that she'd be a major threat if she shot the channel. But being she will spend a decent amount of time over the yucatan, I'm not sure if she is going to gear up into a powerhouse storm. Not saying she won't, but this is likely to be a Claudette if you ask me.

...and Claudette was still a very substantial Category 1 at landfall. Some people tend to underestimate the effects of those HURRICANE force winds.

I rescind my previous comments, but I'm a little peeved at the "doom and gloom" today (as well as the fact that some may be underestimating the effects of a Cat 1-2 TC).

[Aric Dunn]

I would be shocked if this came in at 60kts.

What do you mean delta?

he probably means that rapid intensification is a high probability!

[CrazyC83]

i think this llc had better get strong, to survive a trip across the yucatan in about 10 hours

Bret in 1999 was nothing when it came out of the Yucatan, and exploded to 125 kt in the BOC.

[deltadog03]

Time and time again we have seen center relocations, especially with the weak LLC it has now will be disrupted by land tonight and most of the energy it to the NE, classic example of center relocation...

Great points!! As others have said this morning, I think we could either it reform (doubtfull) or it sucked into the deep convection. likely imo.

[funster]

NHC is forecasting 72 hours in the GOM, but that it will not be able to become a hurricane. Perhaps they see hostile conditions preventing it from doing so? 60kts is puzzling to me.

Me too. Obviously something is bugging them about this storm's potential.

[lrak]

Time and time again we have seen center relocations, especially with the weak LLC it has now will be disrupted by land tonight and most of the energy it to the NE, classic example of center relocation...

its not weak though.

[deltadog03]

Conservative....BUT smart for now

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I think Dolly is in the process of relacting to the north in the convection and will miss much of the Yucatan thus enabling more strengthening.