ATL: IKE Discussion

[fasterdisaster]

Anyone else think he will be south of the next forecast point? After that W wobble we were all seeing he looks more SW than WSW. Could be stairstepping but still.

[Dean4Storms]

Well if the NAM is saying a move to the WNW is coming soon better look for a move to the SW instead!

[Sanibel]

My personal opinion is Cuba does a job on Ike. Where do I get GFDL fan material like buttons and t-shirts?

[tpr1967]

IF you draw a line in between those 2 track points, it seems on track to me.

[Vortex]

Actually Nam has ike moving w/wsw through tom morning then bending w then wnw tom evening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think it is strengthing quickly right now. In fact I believe the centeral pressure could be around 942 milibars or so, I also believe it is going to go into the low to mid 930s when that eye comes out clear later....I think this could take a soild run at 130-135 knots.

[tolakram]

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Is dry air getting entrained into his core right now?

I don't see it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Are we in an eclipse yet?

1. I could have been imagining it since now I look again it could have just been the rotation of storms from his west to east quadrants.
2. Yes.

No we are NOT in the eclipse yet. The last image we get is 0345Z.

[stormy1970al]

Is there a chance that Ike could be a 5 by the time he hits Cuba?

[Dean4Storms]

Weird thing is that the convection is not all that impressive.

[dhweather]

What did the best with Gustav?

GFDL - by far

[shah8]

Hannah had great convection and no organization...

[fasterdisaster]

I don't see it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=white

Are we in an eclipse yet?

1. I could have been imagining it since now I look again it could have just been the rotation of storms from his west to east quadrants.
2. Yes.

No we are NOT in the eclipse yet. The last image we get is 0345Z.

Why did GOES go away then? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[dhweather]

Weird thing is that the convection is not all that impressive.

I agree - could tops are not that cold, but the winds are up there.

[fasterdisaster]

Is there a chance that Ike could be a 5 by the time he hits Cuba?

A chance, surely, but I hesitate enormously saying a storm is 'likely' or something to become a 5

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Weird thing is that the convection is not all that impressive.

I have found that when a Hurricane is trying to clear out its eye all the convection around the whole system warms up and then once the eye clears you will get explosive convection development around the eye that will spread out. It seems like its using all its energy at this time to clear its eye out.

[dhweather]

when is recon back in ?

[jinftl]

A Cat 4 making landfall in Cuba would be catastrophic enough....

Is there a chance that Ike could be a 5 by the time he hits Cuba?

A chance, surely, but I hesitate enormously saying a storm is 'likely' or something to become a 5

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Why did GOES go away then? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Well first of all its night so I have no clue why you are trying to use the visible sat image. 2nd even if we were in the eclipse it wouldn't go away it would just not update.

[HURAKAN]