ATL: IKE Discussion

[MBryant]

Negatives for strengthening.
Eye diameter
cloudy eye

Positives for strengthening.
Warm water
little land interaction
little shear
good outflow in all quadrants
approaching ridge (more isobars)?

Anyone is welcome to add or correct this amateur analysis.

[stormy1970al]

A Cat 4 making landfall in Cuba would be catastrophic enough....

Is there a chance that Ike could be a 5 by the time he hits Cuba?

A chance, surely, but I hesitate enormously saying a storm is 'likely' or something to become a 5

Oh by no means am I trying to wish a 5 on Cuba. My heart goes out to the people of Cuba. Twice in two weeks they get hit by a Strong Hurricane. I wish this storm would fizzle out honestly but was wondering if it intensify or would it just stay near the strength it is now.

[Sanibel]

The eye circle is becoming apparent on IR and should help with direction.

Starting slow pull-out to west.

Turks Caicos should get into outer core in about an hour.

I think it's peaked at strong 3 low 4.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Negatives for strengthening.
Eye diameter
cloudy eye

Positives for strengthening.
Warm water
little land interaction
little shear
good outflow in all quadrants
approaching ridge (more isobars)?

Anyone is welcome to add or correct this amateur analysis.

Once the eye clears out, which is happening, the eye will start to contract as it strengthens. Also the eye isn't really ALL that big its about the 25 to 30 miles according to the last VDM which is about normal size for a Hurricane.

[jinftl]

totally got that you weren't wishing a storm on anyone...sorry if my reply came across like i was implying that!

;p

Is there a chance that Ike could be a 5 by the time he hits Cuba?

[physicx07]

I think it is strengthing quickly right now. In fact I believe the centeral pressure could be around 942 milibars or so, I also believe it is going to go into the low to mid 930s when that eye comes out clear later....I think this could take a soild run at 130-135 knots.

Dvorak has increased from 5.0 to 5.5 over the last few hours:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The eye circle is becoming apparent on IR and should help with direction.

Starting slow pull-out to west.

Turks Caicos should get into outer core in about an hour.

I think it's peaked at strong 3 low 4.

I really don't think it has peaked yet! Still has about another 24 hours or so before Cuba thats plenty of time for it to continue to strengthen. Once that eye clears out later tonight watch for a ring of deep -70C to -80C cloud tops to form right around the eye.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My unoffical strength of the storm thinking as of 11pm est...

140 mph
943 millibars


I think this will strengthen to 150-155 mph within the next 12 hours. with pressures odwn to 935 millibars. I expect a west-northwest track after 18-24 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[6SpeedTA95]

Man guys I hang out with a friend for the day, watch some football and Ike blew up again

I hope everyone in the path of this storm is staying safe.

[MBryant]

I suppose I just don't remember a Cat 5 with an eye larger than about 15 miles diameter while it was at Cat 5 strength.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Man guys I hang out with a friend for the day, watch some football and Ike blew up again

I hope everyone in the path of this storm is staying safe.

I am currently out of its path up here in Portland Maine but might be headed into its path as early as Monday!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I suppose I just don't remember a Cat 5 with an eye larger than about 15 miles diameter while it was at Cat 5 strength.

Katrina had a Huge eye while a Cat 5, Isabel had a huge eye as a cat 5 so didn't Rita.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I know it is extremely rare, but should Ike clear his eye out, and since the very warm waters and low shear are in front of him, and since he has very little in the way of banding features...

I think Ike may try to become an annular hurricane.

Cuba may tear him up a bit, whcih would cause a weakening and widening of his windfield for later...so that seems less likely in the gulf, but until then, it may be possible.

[Dean4Storms]

I believe the dry air is beginning to get to Ike a bit. You can clearly see it to his north and west getting drawn in on WV imagery. He'll either retain where he is at or begin to lose strength in the short term. On top of that he appears to be wobbling or stepping a good bit as if the ridge is keeping him from getting vertically stacked completely. About every time his eye looks to be clearing it gets ragged looking and at times almost looks like 2 eyes as someone alluded to earlier. You can tell it wants to go poleward but that ridge is just bouncing him around it and he is not getting along to well with that situation otherwise I would see no reason why he isn't exploding with deep convection and reaching a Cat. 5

[Brent]

From the discussion:

THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

[6SpeedTA95]

The NHC path basically has Ike moving right over Cuba....bad for Cuba but should disrupt the storm considerably.

[baitism]

Everyone keeps mentioning dry air, but the core has been established, and I don't see it being a big factor unless it gets alot dryer than it is now.

[Brent]

The NHC path basically has Ike moving right over Cuba....bad for Cuba but should disrupt the storm considerably.

It touches the Caribbean this track and if it keeps shifting south...

[HURAKAN]

Eye almost over the T&C.

[dhweather]

Hurrince conditions across cuba would be a very bad thing