ATL: IKE Discussion

[bucman1]

Robbielyn,meant no harm by my comments,please keep sending that info.

[ROCK]

Eye almost over the T&C.

where do people go on these islands to get out of the way? Do they have bunkers or something? just curious.....

[6SpeedTA95]

The NHC path basically has Ike moving right over Cuba....bad for Cuba but should disrupt the storm considerably.

It touches the Caribbean this track and if it keeps shifting south...

Yeah thats true, its shifted south steadily the last 24 hours.

[bahamaswx]

where do people go on these islands to get out of the way? Do they have bunkers or something? just curious.....

We throw up the shutters, and stay in our homes.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I'm surprised nobody has commented about the reported speed remaining the same as before...14. Haven't we seen a big slowdown lately? I thought everyone was discussing that fact just a little bit ago? Did the NHC not see that? Or was it faster earlier, then slowed down a bit, so they posted the average?

[ROCK]

where do people go on these islands to get out of the way? Do they have bunkers or something? just curious.....

We stay in our homes.

really strong construction I imagine.....

[otowntiger]

Was it just me or did the 11:00 discussion by Avilla sound almost smug? They are very confident in what the models are saying. I guess their record has been pretty good at track forcasting but of course intensity wise, their forecasts are still woefully lacking. I just hope they aren't putting too much confidence in computer models.

[Sanibel]

Yeah, it's roaring outside NOW in the Turks Caicos. That little island Salt Caye will have the center of the eye pass over it and see stars above. Then they'll get the south winds.

[tpr1967]

What other confidence do they put it in.

Was it just me or did the 11:00 discussion by Avilla sound almost smug? They are very confident in what the models are saying. I guess their record has been pretty good at track forcasting but of course intensity wise, their forecasts are still woefully lacking. I just hope they aren't putting too much confidence in computer models.

[jinftl]

Rest-assured, the NHC is on top of things....sometimes there is a bit of 'reconciliation' required between storm2k chat and the nhc updates....i love this board and learn alot...but sometimes we run the risk of being a whole lot of arm-chair (and pros too) forecasters overanlayzing things......no harm in that, but no need for us to call the nhc to let them know our findings either...


;p

I'm surprised nobody has commented about the reported speed remaining the same as before...14. Haven't we seen a big slowdown lately? I thought everyone was discussing that fact just a little bit ago? Did the NHC not see that? Or was it faster earlier, then slowed down a bit, so they posted the average?

[tpr1967]

From the 11:00pm nhc discussion.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

I'm surprised nobody has commented about the reported speed remaining the same as before...14. Haven't we seen a big slowdown lately? I thought everyone was discussing that fact just a little bit ago? Did the NHC not see that? Or was it faster earlier, then slowed down a bit, so they posted the average?

[bahamaswx]

where do people go on these islands to get out of the way? Do they have bunkers or something? just curious.....

We stay in our homes.

really strong construction I imagine.....

Mobile homes are completely disallowed here, and wooden homes are strongly discouraged; almost all buildings are cinder block. We have strict building codes that are enforced pretty well on the bigger islands, but the less inhabited are pretty much anything goes.

[carversteve]

Really looks like at the present motion Ike could shoot the gap between hati and cuba or go just over the eastern tip of cuba..Comments please!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_and_Caicos_Islands

Looks like it is part of Briton. So if this hits those islands as a cat4, then they will request its retirement.

[Sanibel]

Now I worry about it being under New Orleans poised for a strike.

[jaxfladude]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Please flame me if I am wrong but does that put the Keys and most of all, Key West, on the very worst part of the eyewall?


Latest NHC track puts LA/Texas on even more of an alert, not looking good for GOM states...have to hope the Cuba does weaken Ike a lot and hope also for our friend shear to help out as well...or else Ike could really be considered for retirement come next year's spring WHO gathering...

[MGC]

Ike looks to be slowly intensifying tonight. Outflow looks good, and Ike has shaken off the dry air that was earlier injested into his circulation. Cloudtops continue to cool and an impressive CDO is developing. Ike is on top of the NHC track. Ike might make a run at Cat-5 but currently I'm thinking he will be a strong Cat-4 at landfall in Cuba.

Currently Forecaster Avila expects a large hurricane in the central GOM in 5 days. And, with the westward trend in both the models and official NHC forecast, a north GOM landfall is looking probable next week. Looks like the same area that Gustav affected. Hate to see New Orleans have to evacuate again. I'm sure there is considerable evacuation fatigue there and many may not leave because of the expense and false reliance on the levee system that was nearly overtopped by Gustav....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[CrazyC83]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turks_and_Caicos_Islands

Looks like it is part of Briton. So if this hits those islands as a cat4, then they will request its retirement.

Are they on the committee for retiring names though?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

From the 11:00pm nhc discussion.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

I'm surprised nobody has commented about the reported speed remaining the same as before...14. Haven't we seen a big slowdown lately? I thought everyone was discussing that fact just a little bit ago? Did the NHC not see that? Or was it faster earlier, then slowed down a bit, so they posted the average?

haha! Thanks for posting their discussion! Good to see we did see that right. Just a momentary hiccup by Ike.

[artist]

From the 11:00pm nhc discussion.

IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

I'm surprised nobody has commented about the reported speed remaining the same as before...14. Haven't we seen a big slowdown lately? I thought everyone was discussing that fact just a little bit ago? Did the NHC not see that? Or was it faster earlier, then slowed down a bit, so they posted the average?

If I am wrong forgive me but I do agree. It seems as though the models are it and nothing else environmentally matters. No mention whatsoever regarding conditions as they are or could be to change the models, etc.