ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[LowndesCoFire]

Spoke with a big wig earlier...Looks like it will be a Galveston - NOLA cone soon enough.

Putting NOLA on the east side of the storm? When and where will we see this cone?

Is that big wig a pro met or just someone with a home weather station? Just curious!

[canegrl04]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

[WmE]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

Yeah but Katrina had the Loop Current to work with.

[HouTXmetro]

So is the NHC 5 day not connecting the dots to a landfall at any particular place for fear of creating chaos?

IMO it's close enough to NOLA to create panick now.

1,200 miles away (from N.O.) does not sound that close to me when the
error cone is 300 miles to each side.

All I'm saying is that when people see that NHC line headed towards them panick follows wether justified or not.

[txwatcher91]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

Yeah but Katrina had the Loop Current to work with.

And so will Gustav.

[cheezyWXguy]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

Yeah but Katrina had the Loop Current to work with.

If the track is correct, so will this one.

[Just Joshing You]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

Yeah but Katrina had the Loop Current to work with.

And Gustav would like to remind you that he has the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic basin to work with.

[gboudx]

Spoke with a big wig earlier...Looks like it will be a Galveston - NOLA cone soon enough.

Putting NOLA on the east side of the storm? When and where will we see this cone?

Not only would that cone be a pretty major shift west, but also a substantial decrease in margin of error.

[canegrl04]

Nevermind the NHC...The Weather Channel is talking about the future effects NOLA. Maybe just a little premature?

Ratings would be higher to paint another New Orleans doomsday scenario and hypothesize what would happen.

CNN,FNC and Headline News channel are dragging up Katrina,too.Wait till Gustav officially enters the Gulf.Even CNN political talking heads are talking about it live from the DNC convention

[LowndesCoFire]

How do SSTs differ for the GOM currently versus Katrina three years ago?

[jinftl]

The reality is that unless there is a huge change to the forecast track or forecast strength we are going to end up in a situation where 72 hours out, the threat is stil great enough that New Orelans is in the cone. Plans for evacuation and preparation are likely to commence once we get in that timeframe, even if the threat does not pan out.

[mutley]

Spoke with a big wig earlier...Looks like it will be a Galveston - NOLA cone soon enough.

Putting NOLA on the east side of the storm? When and where will we see this cone?

Is that big wig a pro met or just someone with a home weather station? Just curious!

I would say that any big wigs are much less informed than many posters and followers of this forum. Their comments, and official statements, will be behind the curve, as contrasted with observers here.

[WmE]

If Gustav becomes a cat 3 by the time he enters the GOM,I fear this one could become a cat 4,possibly a cat 5.Look what Katrina did.She went from cat 1 after crossing Florida to cat 5 at one point before landfall over NOLA as a 3

Yeah but Katrina had the Loop Current to work with.

If the track is correct, so will this one.

Yeah I was just looking it up. I need to remember to just think before I write.

[southerngale]

Spoke with a big wig earlier...Looks like it will be a Galveston - NOLA cone soon enough.

Who?

[Wx_Warrior]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

[LAwxrgal]

State of emergency just declared for Louisiana by the governor. He's on local TV right now.

[HouTXmetro]

I would say that any big wigs are much less informed than many posters and followers of this forum. Their comments, and official statements, will be behind the curve, as contrasted with observers here.

I'm going to have to agree... I think the dedicated posters and promets on this board are ahead of the curve when it comes to anticipating storm changes.

[KWT]

Yep the loop current may well give this another boost, though I suspect this will be upto major status before Gulf of Mexico fairly easily in the NW Caribbean.

[gboudx]

Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.

Any reason why they feel this way? This is fairly different from the current model output, so just curious.

[RL3AO]

Current track avoids the warm water eddy, but puts it over an even warmer and deeper water than the warm water eddy.