ATL: IKE Discussion

[deltadog03]

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Please flame me if I am wrong but does that put the Keys and most of all, Key West, on the very worst part of the eyewall?

Well, I know everything has gone west tonigth...It will change many more times...However, the NAM, yes I know not good in tropics, but not bad synoptically over the conus....That new data must see something downstream potentially. I would be interested to see if the GFS looks any different after this new data that has been put into the models.

[jinftl]

Interesting question....to add to that...even though mainland south florida is out of the cone...a track on the right side of the 3 day cone...and the width of that cone is of course narrower...i am talking a track thru the keys...will bring tropical storm conditions to south florida...if not in sustained winds....likely in squally gusts....so being 'out of the cone' doesn't mean we are going to be sunny all week.

00z NAM shifts further North..Not sure if this is a result of the data entered from recon..Not liking this trend.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Please flame me if I am wrong but does that put the Keys and most of all, Key West, on the very worst part of the eyewall?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

[6SpeedTA95]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

We can pray that it weakens, falls apart over cuba or heads somewhere else...but your right the new path is disturbing.

[sunnyday]

So, now SE fl is out of the cone. It's highly improbable (impossible? nearly) that we wake up tomorrow and all eyes are on this area as they were in the recent past, right??

[HURAKAN]

I just received an e-mail from my aunt in Guanajay, Havana Province, Cuba, that because the TV towers in Pinar del Río were toppled by Gustav, there is a large part of Pinar del Río and Havana that are not receiving TV signal and the information about Ike is not being correctly informed by the public. She is asking me to tell her if Ike will affect Cuba or Florida, because a lot of people are saying different things.

[Windy]

I find it interesting that the NHC chooses to go west of the model guidance for the Cuba transit, in order to take it across as quick as possible. I get the feeling that they have no idea how it will transit Cuba, but they'd rather err on a solution that keeps the storm together. You forecast that Cuba will turn the storm into a tropical storm by the time it exits land, and everyone lets their guard down.

[Innotech]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

I can tell you what the gas situation will be like, and trust me, you dont want to know. What we can see developing already is a pretty horrible situation. Im concerned that there may not be enough fuel available in hard hit southeastern La to even evacuate again. I know that two refineries in that area are shut down and must be restarted, which takes days. I also know that several fuel loading racks are basically on fumes, and when thats gone, thats all the gas there is. It is possible that transport companies from up north will come to our aid, but if theres no fuel to even deliver, well you get the picture.

[Sabanic]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

Hey CM there are still a few days ahead where things could change, so just relax for now, and be prepared.

[HURAKAN]

[cape_escape]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

Mike, I feel so bad for you all up there! I remember all to well how that felt after Charley came through here! It was hot hot hot, no electric for almost a week, no generator, no food , standing in line for ice....I honestly feel for you!

You are all in my prayers weather Ike comes there or not!

[stormy1970al]

I think this is going to be a week where we wait and see and wonder where Ike is going.

[cape_escape]

I just received an e-mail from my aunt in Guanajay, Havana Province, Cuba, that because the TV towers in Pinar del Río were toppled by Gustav, there is a large part of Pinar del Río and Havana that are not receiving TV signal and the information about Ike is not being correctly informed by the public. She is asking me to tell her if Ike will affect Cuba or Florida, because a lot of people are saying different things.

That's horrible Hurakan! It's good that she has you! I'm sure you will be a big help to her!

[ROCK]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

I can tell you what the gas situation will be like, and trust me, you dont want to know. What we can see developing already is a pretty horrible situation. Im concerned that there may not be enough fuel available in hard hit southeastern La to even evacuate again. I know that two refineries in that area are shut down and must be restarted, which takes days. I also know that several fuel loading racks are basically on fumes, and when thats gone, thats all the gas there is. It is possible that transport companies from up north will come to our aid, but if theres no fuel to even deliver, well you get the picture.

I think Texas shipped some over if I am not mistaken after the storm......

I hope you guys catch a break this time...

[setxweathergal]

I think this is going to be a week where we wait and see and wonder where Ike is going.

I think that you're right and it's like a de-ja-vue moment from a week ago!

[Jagno]

Once again SE Louisiana seems to be in the center of "The Cone". People around here are going to start freaking out. It has been a horrible week since Gustav with food, electricity, and gas. Half our parish and Baton Rouge are still without power. Gas lines two and three days after were unreal. People were waiting 2-3 hours at a time for gas, ice, and tarps. Can only imagine what next week will bring if Ike continues heading towards the central gulf.

I can tell you what the gas situation will be like, and trust me, you dont want to know. What we can see developing already is a pretty horrible situation. Im concerned that there may not be enough fuel available in hard hit southeastern La to even evacuate again. I know that two refineries in that area are shut down and must be restarted, which takes days. I also know that several fuel loading racks are basically on fumes, and when thats gone, thats all the gas there is. It is possible that transport companies from up north will come to our aid, but if theres no fuel to even deliver, well you get the picture.

Innotech; You must have missed the article posted earlier about Chertoff himself stepping in and saying that they will see to it that gas stations are up and running and/or portable fuel trucks available so that all that need gas to evacuate will have it in these hard hit areas. I hope this helps to put some fears to rest.

[cape_escape]

I think this is going to be a week where we wait and see and wonder where Ike is going.

I think that you're right and it's like a de-ja-vue moment from a week ago!

I know I feel like I'm watching Gustav all over again!

[HurricaneRobert]

Ike hitting anywhere in the Golden Triangle will severely impact everyone in the United States. The economy is really soft, so shutting down refineries, evacuating platforms and the potential for widespread destruction in a major city again is the worst thing that could happen. Plus we're at the end of that dreaded third quarter, where the stock market always takes its biggest dives (and it's been hurting badly during the last week).

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The eye is now almost cleared out. I expect it to be fully cleared with in the next couple of hours prob. sooner rather then later!

[MBryant]

Does anybody else see an irony of a Hurricane named Ike hitting Cuba?