ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Circulation very visible.

Please post a satellite map with a mark showing the location.

HURAKAN, pretty please w/ a cherry on top.

[Derek Ortt]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

From 1851 to 2007, there have been NO major hurricane landfalls on Florida via systems that crossed Hispaniola within ~65 nmi of 92L's current position in August.

Anyone who expects a TC stronger than Cat 1/2 intensity is delusional.

There were very good reasons for prediction a major yesterday

[AtlanticWind]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Pretty sure we have a tropical storm near the tip of the DR.

Hey Bob. I think your right. It's just NE of that little Island. I think it's moving west and could very well travel down the south side of the DR.

Hey gary. I think its at he tip of the Dr and may may go over most of the Dr.

[hurricanefloyd5]

So where is the llcc??????? I am having a hard time picking out the LLCC now?????

Possibly NNW of the DR radar.

so it's still a lopsided storm????????? Fox news just called it a TD and i think thats an unconfirm report from Foxnews

[dixiebreeze]

I picked up our hurricane reentry stickers this morning, so we're all set.

[CrazyC83]

Recon has not found a center yet. I doubt they will call it a TD (actually TS Fay since winds support 35-40 kt) until they find one.

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami, that was uncalled for. There are very good reasons for prediction a major yesterday

I wasn't criticising the forecasts. Personally, I never anticipated a major hurricane from this one, so I was expressing my views.

There aren't many good reasons (today) to a forecast a major hurricane down the line.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Hey Bob. I think your right. It's just NE of that little Island. I think it's moving west and could very well travel down the south side of the DR.[/quote]

Hey gary. I think its at he tip of the Dr and may may go over most of the Dr.[/quote]

Could be but most of the activity is to the south so I think it gets drawn there. Either way it's not going above the islands. What'd you think of the GFDL run?

[Category 5]

So where is the llcc??????? I am having a hard time picking out the LLCC now?????

Possibly NNW of the DR radar.

so it's still a lopsided storm????????? Fox news just called it a TD and i think thats an unconfirm report from Foxnews

It's not lopsided, it doesn't have a closed LLC that we know of yet. And Just a tip, don't trust cable news reports.

[GreenSky]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

From 1851 to 2007, there have been NO major hurricane landfalls on Florida via systems that crossed Hispaniola within ~65 nmi of 92L's current position in August.

Anyone who expects a TC stronger than Cat 1/2 intensity is delusional.

Miami, that was uncalled for. There are very good reasons for prediction a major yesterday

Derek, I think Miami's got a point. Miami is talking about TODAY, not yesterday...sure yesterday there were good reasons for predicting a major TC. However, TODAY 92L has been moving farther south than expected and according to one pro met (FOX13WEATHER) should go down the spine of DR and should make it almost impossible for there to be a major hurricane approaching Southeast Florida.

[robbielyn]

For all the doomsayers out there include some pro mets, this season we have systems that can't seem to get their act together and then suddenly bam!. They have endurance. Look at 93L. It was a player then it wasn't and now it's back again. I think some people put to much emphasis on models and climatology and forget to just watch the storm as it unfolds. Each storm is different. They are individuals and like people, they have a mind of their own even if other storms have similarities. We may have come a long way in the science of weather but she is not one to be tamed or fully understood. We're still just scratching the system of understanding weather and our planet for that much. Just my 2 cents. I say fay develops into something with a name. She won't be torn apart and if she does she will be reborn again.

[weatherguru18]

Fox just made the correction. By the way, the just said that somebody (the phone rang and didn't hear exactly who...I think the City of Miami) is going to hold a special meeting today at 2:30 ET to talk preperation. Just thought I'd pass that along.

[senorpepr]

From 1851 to 2007, there have been NO major hurricane landfalls on Florida via systems that crossed Hispaniola within ~65 nmi of 92L's current position in August.

Anyone who expects a TC stronger than Cat 1/2 intensity is delusional.

That's similar to saying from 1851 to 2004, there has NEVER been more than 21 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Anyone who expects more than 21 named storms in 2005 is delusional.


I mean, respectfully, weird things do happen and you cannot simply toss it out when there's supporting fact for it.

[txag2005]

Unbelievable this thing has dragged on as long as it has.

Any chance of development in the next 24-48 hours?

[CrazyC83]

I say fay develops into something with a name. She won't be torn apart and if she does she will be reborn again.

Winds support a tropical storm, so it is either TS Fay or a wave.

[MiamiensisWx]

That's similar to saying from 1851 to 2004, there has NEVER been more than 21 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Anyone who expects more than 21 named storms in 2005 is delusional.


I mean, respectfully, weird things do happen and you cannot simply toss it out when there's supporting fact for it.

Can you explain the support for the possibility of a major hurricane from this one? I don't see it. Thanks!

[dixiebreeze]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

[vbhoutex]

looks more and more likely this gets into the gulf either via a florida or cuba connection and from there need i say more in mid august...

I don't think so. I am pretty sure from staring at visible the LLC is on or North of the Northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic.


The exact path isn't certain yet, but I'm unofficially leaning the way JB has been, Bahamas, close to Florida but no landfall, and a Carolinas threat.

Right now I put it at about 50/50 GOM or East Coast. Until a strong LLCC can be established, and it definitely has not been yet, those are the odds I would place.
The possible LLCC is just off the N coast NW of Punta Cana, but it sure does appear to be weak. And contrary to no disruption to a weak storm people, if you watch a zoomed in visible you can see the mountains in the middle of Hispaniola definitely disrupting the lower clouds that are streaming over them. Granted, there is not a strong core at the surface to disrupt, but I certainly believe there will be a little bit of struggle as the MLC runs through Hispaniola. If that MLC makes it off the Southern coast then we will have a different story as to how fast this system could ramp up.JMHO

[gatorcane]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Actually there was a good reason and why NHC kept Punta Gorda in the cone. So the NHC was right on Charley. Charley should have surprised nobody who was in the cone. Charley was an example of line focusing.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That's similar to saying from 1851 to 2004, there has NEVER been more than 21 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Anyone who expects more than 21 named storms in 2005 is delusional.


I mean, respectfully, weird things do happen and you cannot simply toss it out when there's supporting fact for it.

Can you explain the support for the possibility of a major hurricane from this one? I don't see it. Thanks!

im no expert but I think a trip between Cuba and FL is plenty enough roo mto get it there with no shear