NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Ophelia

[RattleMan]

Heheh, the water and land colors are swapped in that image.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 4:28 am CST [3:58 am WDT] Saturday 1 March 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau.

At 3:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be 145 kilometres southwest of
Kalumburu and 140 kilometres east of Kuri Bay and moving southwest at 10
kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west, and be located
off the west Kimberley coast later today. The low may develop into a TROPICAL
CYCLONE late today or Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal
areas between Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque late today or Sunday morning.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.3 degrees South 125.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 7:30 am WDT Saturday 01 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Best Day Ever!!!

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

TOP PRIORITY

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 7:50 am CST [7:20 am WDT] Saturday 1 March 2008

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mitchell
Plateau in Western Australia.

At 6:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was re-located to be 70 kilometres north of Kuri
Bay and 230 kilometres northeast of Cape Leveque and moving west at 20
kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to continue moving towards the west or west
southwest. The low is likely to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE later today or
overnight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later tonight or Sunday morning.

Details of Tropical Low at 6:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 14.9 degrees South 124.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 95 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 20 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued from Perth by 10:00 am WDT Saturday 01 March.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

MEDIA: the following message is only for broadcast in Western Australia

FESA advises there are no community alerts. People between Cape Leveque and the
Mitchell Plateau should listen for the next advice at 10.00am.

[HURAKAN]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0131 UTC 01/03/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 124.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west (263 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (15 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots (45 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 01/1200: 15.2S 123.0E: 055 (100): 035 (065): 990
+24: 02/0000: 15.5S 121.3E: 080 (150): 045 (085): 984
+36: 02/1200: 15.8S 119.9E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 972
+48: 03/0000: 16.0S 118.1E: 120 (220): 060 (110): 970
REMARKS:
The low has moved offshore overnight and is showing immediate signs of developing with
enhanced deep convection to the west of the low level circulation consistent with moderate
E/NE shear. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.0 based on MET and approximate curved band wrap of 0.3 degrees.
Tropical Cyclone intensity is expected to be attained tonight off the west Kimberley coast with a
slightly faster than standard rate of development thereafter on the basis of the system being
smaller than average and with shear likely to remain light to moderate. Model guidance show a
range of intensity forecasts suggesting higher uncertainty than normal in this regard.

Sea surface temperatures, although a few degrees cooler than normal remain above 28C on
the forecast track supporting development to about T4.5 in the longer term.
Consistent Model forecasts are consistent with a forecastt W or WSW movement for next few
days under the influence of a persisting mid-level ridge to the south.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 10:05 am WDT on Saturday, 1 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cape
Leveque including the northern Dampier Peninsula.

At 9:00 am WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
65 kilometres north northwest of Kuri Bay and
205 kilometres northeast of Cape Leveque and
moving west at 15 kilometres per hour

The tropical low is expected to continue moving on a general westerly track and
may develop into a Tropical Cyclone later today or overnight.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later today or Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then decrease from northeastern parts of the warning area as the
system continues to track to the west.

Details of Tropical Low at 9:00 am WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.0 degrees South 124.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Saturday 01 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[HURAKAN]

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 1:00 pm WDT on Saturday, 1 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Mitchell Plateau to Cape
Leveque including the northern Dampier Peninsula

At midday WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
65 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
150 kilometres northeast of Cape Leveque and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour

The tropical low is expected to continue moving on a general west or west
southwesterly track and may develop into a Tropical Cyclone later today or
Sunday morning.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Mitchell Plateau and Cape Leveque later today or Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then decrease from the northeast as the system moves away from the
coast.

Details of Tropical Low at midday WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.4 degrees South 123.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals


The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Saturday 01 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

[HURAKAN]

Pretty good. 01/0230 UTC 15.5S 123.7E T2.5/2.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 4:00 pm WDT on Saturday, 1 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is now current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Broome

At 3:00 pm WDT a Tropical Low was estimated to be
100 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
310 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour

The tropical low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone later today or Sunday
morning as it continues moving on a general west or west southwesterly track.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Kuri Bay and Broome for a period tonight or during Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then decrease from the northeast as the system moves away from the
coast.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 pm WDT:
.Centre located near...... 15.5 degrees South 123.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kuri Bay and Broome should listen to the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WDT Saturday 01 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[G.B.]

[G.B.]

IDW27300
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0659 UTC 01/03/2008
Name: Tropical Low
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.5S
Longitude: 123.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (250 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
Storm Depth: Medium
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 01/1800: 15.8S 122.4E: 050 (095): 040 (075): 988
+24: 02/0600: 15.9S 120.8E: 080 (150): 050 (095): 980
+36: 02/1800: 16.3S 119.3E: 100 (185): 060 (110): 970
+48: 03/0600: 16.7S 117.8E: 120 (220): 065 (120): 966
REMARKS:
Since moving off the west Kimberley coast last night deep convection has increased significantly
and there is evidence of a small but tight low level circulation. Dvorak analysis: DT=2.5 based
on MET and approximate curved band wrap of 0.4 degrees. This is faster than the standard
rate of development consistent with typical small-scale systems. Observations at nearby Adele
Island are yet to indicate strong winds although a rapid strengthening in winds in the next six
hours would also be consistent with the system being a midget.

Tropical Cyclone intensity is expected to be attained tonight with a slightly faster than standard
rate of development thereafter with shear likely to remain light to moderate. Model guidance
show a range of intensity forecasts suggesting higher uncertainty than normal in this regard.

Sea surface temperatures, although a few degrees cooler than normal remain above
28C on the forecast track supporting development to about T4.5 in the next 72 hours.

There is a small range in the model guidance tracks to the west or west southwest for the next few days under the influence of a persisting mid-level ridge to the south.

Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1300 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Chacor]

TC 21S.

[G.B.]

and the way things are going Ophelia won't be far behind

[RattleMan]

Looks interesting.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 122.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
400 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AVAILABLE AGENCIES
SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF
AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 21S
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A DEVELOPING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12, BUT THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE STORM TRACKS WESTWARD.
THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF
THE STORM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF
THE NUMERICAL AIDS, WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DUE
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE INFLUENCES. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 291921Z FEB 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 291930)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z AND 020900Z.//

[G.B.]

IDW24100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 6:45 pm WDT on Saturday, 1 March 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to Broome.

At 6:00 pm WDT a tropical low was relocated to be
175 kilometres west of Kuri Bay and
250 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
moving west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour

The tropical low may develop into a Tropical Cyclone tonight or Sunday morning
as it continues moving on a general west southwesterly track.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop in coastal areas between
Kuri Bay and Broome for a period tonight or during Sunday morning. The risk of
gales should then decrease from the northeast as the system moves away from the
coast.

Details of tropical low at 6:00 pm WDT:
.Centre relocated near.... 15.8 degrees South 122.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 994 hectoPascals

FESA - State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Kuri Bay and Broome should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Saturday 01 March.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone