Tropical Storm Fay RECON Discussions

[Aric Dunn]

that last set of minobs .. was at 347.. 20 min ago.. they should be in there now.. unless they are heading north more

doing a NW Se pass ?

[Thunder44]

that last set of minobs .. was at 347.. 20 min ago.. they should be in there now.. unless they are heading north more

doing a NW Se pass ?

Since it's a really research mission, I don't know if they are going to an alpha pattern.

[SouthFloridawx]

What do you guys think they will find?

[Aric Dunn]

they will most likely find some decent winds..

as for a closed low maybe towards the end of the mission..

but who knows it dark and we only have surface obs to go aoff off sat is not suffiecent right now..

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure found so far=1007.5 mbs.

[Aric Dunn]

Lowest pressure found so far=1007.5 mbs.

but they are at 12,000 ft or so..

[HURAKAN]

Did they forget to report? Could they be experiencing technical difficulties?

[Aric Dunn]

they look to be searching for a closed low.... doing circles possible SW side of the convection

why they are at 11,000 ft not known.. but they know what they are doing

[SouthFloridawx]

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor 21.6 knots (~ 24.8 mph)
18.9 knots (~ 21.7 mph)
21.3 knots (~ 24.5 mph)
14.7 knots (~ 16.9 mph)
21.4 knots (~ 24.6 mph)
21.4 knots (~ 24.6 mph)
26.1 knots (~ 30.0 mph)
28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
29.0 knots (~ 33.3 mph)
28.0 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
24.1 knots (~ 27.8 mph)
23.7 knots (~ 27.2 mph)
27.5 knots* (~ 31.6 mph*)
21.9 knots (~ 25.2 mph)
29.5 knots (~ 34.0 mph)
32.7 knots (~ 37.6 mph)
29.6 knots (~ 34.1 mph)
33.3 knots (~ 38.3 mph)
37.6 knots (~ 43.3 mph)
30.9 knots* (~ 35.6 mph*) Tropical Storm
Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well the wind speeds are definitely high enough for an upgrade, the question now though is will they find a well-enough developed LLC?

[RL3AO]

Ignore the SFMR at this height. They are flying at 11,000 feet.

[Aric Dunn]

Ignore the SFMR at this height. They are flying at 11,000 feet.

there is a height limit.. hhhmmmm... they would all be flagged if that was the case can you verify that???

[RL3AO]

Ignore the SFMR at this height. They are flying at 11,000 feet.

there is a height limit.. hhhmmmm... they would all be flagged if that was the case can you verify that???

If you think there is 43kt winds are the surface, then go ahead.

[Aric Dunn]

Ignore the SFMR at this height. They are flying at 11,000 feet.

there is a height limit.. hhhmmmm... they would all be flagged if that was the case can you verify that???

If you think there is 43kt winds are the surface, then go ahead.

i did not say that .. i just asked you to verify when SFMR is not used.. at what level?

[RL3AO]

I'm not using it. You can. Nothing I have to verify what the NHC uses and what they dont.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm not using it. You can. Nothing I have to verify what the NHC uses and what they dont.

huh!!! you said dont use the SFMR cause they are at 11,000 ft that need to be verified dont you think..

if the data is ligit or not ..

[RL3AO]

It was my opinion.

[Aric Dunn]

It was my opinion.

oh ok ..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flight level and SFMR winds support a depression. It just comes down to whether there is a closed LLC. I wish they would fly lower or at least drop a sonde south of the where they expect the LLC to be.

[Stratosphere747]

Flight level and SFMR winds support a depression. It just comes down to whether there is a closed LLC. I wish they would fly lower or at least drop a sonde south of the where they expect the LLC to be.

Agreed...