ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[gatorcane]

Latest:

[cheezyWXguy]

That LLC looks to be getting stronger by the minute. Ever since we had that big blow up over the center, the mass of deep convection has begun to weaken and swirl around the LLC. I dont know where it will make its second landfall, but for the first one Im going to guess just south of Cozumel at 60-70mph.

[KWT]

Yep thats a pretty powerful blow up of convection over the center right now, should help to give a short term higher burst of wind for recon I'd have thought.

I think the bottom line is Texas really needs to keep a very close eye on this system, may well be the strongest US landfalling system since Wilma if it does get those good conditions sadly.

[gatorcane]

this is a really nice close-up visible loop of this developing system:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[ronjon]

Here's a look at the ridge and approaching troph. This may help turn Dolly more NW.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

Boy, that's quite a trough amplifying over the midwest and then eastern US in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. It really weakens the 591 dm ridge over the gulf coast. If there are any future track adjustments, I suspect they may be more to the right or northward.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Too bad the NHC doesn't have the forecast pts ready on the satellite loops, I find it easier to track it that way. On another note, Dolly looks very well organized this afternoon and I doubt she's 45 mph anymore. More along the lines of 50 - 65mph.

[gatorcane]

Here's a look at the ridge and approaching troph. This may help turn Dolly more NW.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

Boy, that's quite a trough amplifying over the midwest and then eastern US in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe. It really weakens the 591 dm ridge over the gulf coast. If there are any future track adjustments, I suspect they may be more to the right or northward.

Yes, I am thinking the same thing. It will be interesting to see how the NHC wants to bend the cone down the road. Right now there is a small bend but it could be more if you look at how amplified that trough becomes.

[Smurfwicked]

I agree, the new models will most likely have a emphasis of Texas coast landfall.

I think probably closer to the center of the Texas coast too, with the highest probability of whats east of that location. JMO and my best guess!

I don't think the models were initialized so far south to make THAT huge of an impact on track. I *think* we're ok over here.

I'm not making this assumption soley on that difference, but also and more so the current direction of travel. To my understanding those models was intialized when the Dolly had WNW movement, now its more true to a direct NW. Just what I see, like I say im not a pro met.

[KWT]

I suspect if it reaches the Gulf this will have a good chance of at strengthening quickly. I think the NHC want to see how it handles landfall before making a call of getting much higher in the Gulf, if it comes out as a wlel organsied weak TS then I think you will see the NHC raise their forecast quite a lot.

[txwatcher91]

I was away this morning when this was upgraded, so was recon in there and found a closed LLC, or did a buoy support an upgrade? What showed a closed LLC?
Thanks

[Brent]

I was away this morning when this was upgraded, so was recon in there and found a closed LLC, or did a buoy support an upgrade? What showed a closed LLC?
Thanks

Yep, recon was there:

URNT12 KWBC 201404
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1353Z
B. 17 DEG 58 MIN N
83 DEG 51 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 080 DEG 80 NM
F. 130 DEG 50 KT
G. 080 DEG 85 NM
H. EXTRAP 1009 MB
I. 23 C/450 M
J. 24 C/463 M
K. 22 C/28 C
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05AAA INVEST OB 12 AL052008
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
MAX FL WIND 50 KTS E QUAD 1324Z

[RainWind]

Recon made the call to Dolly!

[weatherguru18]

I suspect if it reaches the Gulf this will have a good chance of at strengthening quickly. I think the NHC want to see how it handles landfall before making a call of getting much higher in the Gulf, if it comes out as a wlel organsied weak TS then I think you will see the NHC raise their forecast quite a lot.

Well it certainly is a catch 22. Voluntary evacuations may get underway for somebody in the next 24 hrs. Will people take the evacuation seriously if it's only a lil' ol' ts or cat. 1, or do you forecast a monster, evacuate a million people and it be nothing. I certainly don't want to have to make that decision.

[txwatcher91]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Alright, thanks. Now that this has an LLC I think the potential for a hurricane is very high once it gets into the GOM and it could become a major hurricane, although we will have to wait and see.

[Yankeegirl]

time for the roller coaster model ride!

[KWT]

weatherguru18, its crertainly not easy to know but you don't take the risk if there is a chance it could do something. Lets not forget cat-1's can be pretty dangerous as well, esp if they come in strengthening.

Also that burst over the center is really impressive, looks like its trying to burst convectivly which can mean some quick strengthening.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Will the ULL in front of Dolly cause a more north movement of her center? Not -removed-, just asking.

[weatherguru18]

this is racing along right now...it will not spend much time at all over the yucatan.

The further north it treks, the less time it will spend anyway. The Yucatan narrows rapidly.

[weatherguru18]

weatherguru18, its crertainly not easy to know but you don't take the risk if there is a chance it could do something. Lets not forget cat-1's can be pretty dangerous as well, esp if they come in strengthening.

Also that burst over the center is really impressive, looks like its trying to burst convectivly which can mean some quick strengthening.

Oh I know...I'm just putting myself in the position of hard heads along the coast who have never seen a hurricane and have no clue what a true cat. 1 can do. I think there is a big misconception there. That's why I said lil' ol'...

[KWT]

Also that burst over the center is really impressive, looks like its trying to burst convectivly which can mean some quick strengthening.

I suspect that it won't spend much time over the Yucatan regardless whether it heads WNW or NW, certainly not enough to weaken it hugely.