ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

Does anybody really think 92L will survive almost 600 miles oover Hispanola and Cuba?

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
MOVING INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IT.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ALTHOUGH WHEN AND WHERE A DEPRESSION MIGHT FORM IS UNCERTAIN
DUE TO INTERACTIONS WITH THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA. HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF
CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND
JAMAICA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Bolded statement is false. There was abundant evidence for the turn. Additionally, 1933 likely featured more than 21 NS, so I always believed (rare) seasons with more than 21 NS were possible.

I have yet to see any conclusive evidence supporting the possibility of a major hurricane from this one. I'm not condescending; I'm merely asking for proof or possible answers.

[gatorcane]

and Jamaica??? ...NHC giving respect for GFS

Also they imply they think a northward turn will heppen because of the Southern Florida and Bahamas mention.

[dixiebreeze]

Everyone should keep in mind the unpredictability of tropical storms. There was no "good reason" to think Hurricane Charlie would suddenly take a hard right into Punta Gorda, Florida -- but it did.

Actually there was a good reason and why NHC kept Punta Gorda in the cone. So the NHC was right on Charley. Charley should have surprised nobody who was in the cone. Charley was an example of line focusing.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Does anybody really think 92L will survive almost 600 miles oover Hispanola and Cuba?

How sure are you of that path?

[SWFLA_CANE]

That's similar to saying from 1851 to 2004, there has NEVER been more than 21 named storms in the Atlantic basin.

Anyone who expects more than 21 named storms in 2005 is delusional.


I mean, respectfully, weird things do happen and you cannot simply toss it out when there's supporting fact for it.

Can you explain the support for the possibility of a major hurricane from this one? I don't see it. Thanks!

Well the chances are slim of it becoming a major and impacting SFLA (not enough time over water) but if it stays in the Atlantic over the Gulf Stream or if it goes into the warm GOM it will have the time and anything is possible.

[CourierPR]

Does anybody really think 92L will survive almost 600 miles oover Hispanola and Cuba?

Yes, it's progged to turn north.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well the chances are slim of it becoming a major and impacting SFLA (not enough time over water) but if it stays in the Atlantic over the Gulf Stream or if it goes into the warm GOM it will have the time and anything is possible.

Thanks, but anyone offer more evidence than warm waters? I'm not irriated; I'm merely a curious and informed south FL resident. Thanks!

[marcus B]

Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel said last night he thought the models were wrong and 92L would track south of Cuba and into the gulf. looks like he may be right.

[Derek Ortt]

I do have a question, how is it likely to form over the DR?

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Circulation very visible.

Please post a satellite map with a mark showing the location.

HURAKAN, pretty please w/ a cherry on top.

Likely it's closer to the coast.

[canegrl04]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

[AtlanticWind]

Does anybody really think 92L will survive almost 600 miles oover Hispanola and Cuba?

Yes, it's progged to turn north.

It very well may not survive.

[weatherguru18]

Even if "Fay" does make it to the gulf, I don't think it's going to make it very far in before it is grabbed by the winter-like troph over the E. Conus. Take a look at this...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/avnmr.vort.html

[CourierPR]

Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel said last night he thought the models were wrong and 92L would track south of Cuba and into the gulf. looks like he may be right.

Not according to NHC.

[gatorcane]

Well the chances are slim of it becoming a major and impacting SFLA (not enough time over water) but if it stays in the Atlantic over the Gulf Stream or if it goes into the warm GOM it will have the time and anything is possible.

Thanks, but anyone offer more evidence than warm waters? I'm not irriated; I'm merely a curious and informed south FL resident. Thanks!

I don't expect a major hurricane out of this but here is an example of just how fast systems can ramp up in the FL straits:

TS to CAT 5 in about 4 days or so.

[NEXRAD]

Just a climatology note... very few tropical storms have ever formed just south of the Dominican Republic. Storms that did form just south of the Dominican Republic usually moved northwest over Hispaniola and into the SW Atlantic.

- Jay

[HURAKAN]

Fox News Channel already calling it a TD.

Completely, utterly unacceptable.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I do have a question, how is it likely to form over the DR?

Not very, but look where Arthur got named...