ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

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LSU2001
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Re: Re:

#4001 Postby LSU2001 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:14 pm

mvtrucking wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:Just spoke with some good pro mets...explaining different scenarios and what I got out of it was Galv-NOLA.


Wow. They must be really GOOD pro mets to narrow down a zone with confidence, especially considering the highly respected pro mets on S2K and our National Hurricane Center are all saying right now that the landfall forecast at day 5 and beyond remains highly speculative.

I'll put Stewart, or Franklin, or Wxman57, or Air Force Met, or Derek Ortt up against them any day!


And is it possible that behind the scenes the NHC may have had a talk with officials in NOLA indicating it may be a good time to at least start thinking about putting emergency plans in motion?


I talked to a EOC officer this afternoon and the current thinking is that NOLA will begin Contraflow around 2:00pm Sat. if the forecast does not significantly change prior to that. NOLA and in fact all of south La. are slowly grinding into action.
Tim

PS There is supposed to be another conference call at 8:00 am tomorrow so I should know more then.
TIm
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4002 Postby MHurricanes » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:17 pm

We -- those of in Florida -- already are looking at the 95L thread. That's a storm that seems interesting.

- MHurricanes
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#4003 Postby hiflyer » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:17 pm

If...big if....the center of circulation has drifted south a bit...wsw....then Jamaica is far more near resumed westward path than ever before.....as is Grand Cayman.
:double:
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Re:

#4004 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:Matt yeah you are right.

My interest is continuing to decrease with Gustav as convection continues to fizzle. In 24 hours I may regain some interest.



I don't blame you gator...I'm in a "believe it when I see it" mode regarding the intensification......Once I see it, I'll believe, but I don't see anything to believe at the moment..
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Re: Re:

#4005 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:20 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Matt yeah you are right.

My interest is continuing to decrease with Gustav as convection continues to fizzle. In 24 hours I may regain some interest.



I don't blame you gator...I'm in a "believe it when I see it" mode regarding the intensification......Once I see it, I'll believe, but I don't see anything to believe at the moment..


I'm starting to have doubts too but I know better than to discount a storm moving into the NW Caribbean. However, the next 24-36 hours will be very crucial. I certainly didn't expect this storm to be a mess today.
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#4006 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:22 pm

no reason to doubt it will strengthen, I think the reason its weakened is clear, its become decoupled over Haiti. Once the convection gets clear of the mountions I think this will start to get better organised again.

Does argue against a super strong hurricane if it doesn't stack itself up well in the next 18hrs or so.
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#4007 Postby RL3AO » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:22 pm

Anyone who is writting this off, is a complete moron.

No offense.
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#4008 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:23 pm

I think the NHC forecast is a bit bullish, we've seen some hurricanes that never really get their inner core back after a Hispaniola trip. I think this could be a Cat 1-2 in the GOM (assuming it makes it there), but probably not any stronger. I agree that 95L will likely be a much more interesting entity to track in the coming days. Of course both are still major threats to be taken seriously.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4009 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:25 pm

I didnt really expect much to happen today anywaz.... I think this will get its act back together in the next 24-36hrs as the Track and Intesity forcast shows.. If you look at the latest IR Sat it looks convextion is starting to get better organized over the center.
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#4010 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:26 pm

Totally agree RL3AO, i keep saying this has 96hrs in waters which has powered up cat-1's into 4/5's in the space of 24-36hrs in the past fairly often, whilst it wil ltake longer to get to that possible stage given what a mess this system is to write it off now is stupid.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4011 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:29 pm

Our local met just said we need to watch it but that is is more likely not to affect us at this point.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4012 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:29 pm

What is that massive blob of convection south of Jamaica from? Can it actually be sucking energy away from Gustav or possibilty it can merge and jumpstart Gustav?
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Re:

#4013 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:30 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:I think the NHC forecast is a bit bullish, we've seen some hurricanes that never really get their inner core back after a Hispaniola trip. I think this could be a Cat 1-2 in the GOM (assuming it makes it there), but probably not any stronger. I agree that 95L will likely be a much more interesting entity to track in the coming days. Of course both are still major threats to be taken seriously.

Haha u kidding? Thats what Id expect in about 60 hours. As long as this begins restrengthening in the next 12-18 hours, which it should, significant intensification is a pretty good bet. Notice that the usually pessimistic Derek Ortt is forecasting a 120kt hurricane in the gulf in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4014 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:30 pm

Keep on Topic, Posts will be deleted without warning and suspensions will be issued
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4015 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:31 pm

the last frame of the shortwave satellite loop shows a doughnut shaped pattern in the area of the last center fix. If that's it, it's right back on the coast of Haiti.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Last edited by AL Chili Pepper on Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4016 Postby sfwx » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:31 pm

Louisiana eyes Gustav, activates Guard troops

By MICHAEL KUNZELMAN and TAMARA LUSH, Associated Press Writers
5 minutes ago



On the eve of Hurricane Katrina's third anniversary, a nervous New Orleans watched Wednesday as another storm threatened to test everything the city has rebuilt, and officials made preliminary plans to evacuate people, pets and hospitals in an attempt to avoid a Katrina-style chaos.

Forecasters warned that Gustav could grow into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane in the next several days and hit somewhere along a swath of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas — with New Orleans smack in the middle.

"I'm panicking," said Evelyn Fuselier of Chalmette, whose home was submerged in 14 feet of floodwater when Katrina hit. Fuselier said she's been back in her home one year this month, and called watching Gustav swirl toward the Gulf of Mexico indescribable. "I keep thinking, 'Did the Corps fix the levees?', 'Is my house going to flood again?' ... 'Am I going to have to go through all this again?'"

Taking no chances, city officials began preliminary planning to evacuate and lock down the city in hopes of avoiding the catastrophe that followed the 2005 storm. Mayor Ray Nagin left the Democratic National Convention in Denver to return home for the preparations. Gov. Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency to lay the groundwork for federal assistance, and put 3,000 National Guard troops on standby.

If a Category 3 or stronger hurricane comes within 60 hours of the city, New Orleans plans to institute a mandatory evacuation order. Unlike Katrina, there will be no massive shelter at the Superdome, a plan designed to encourage residents to leave. Instead, the state has arranged for buses and trains to take people to safety.

It was unclear what would happen to stragglers. Jerry Sneed, the city's emergency preparedness director, said officials are ready to move about 30,000 people. Nearly 8,000 people had signed up for transportation help by late Wednesday.

At a suburban Lowe's store, employees said portable generators, gasoline cans, bottled water and batteries were selling briskly. Hotels across south Louisiana reported taking many reservations as coastal residents looked inland for possible refuge.

Steve Weaver, 82, and his wife stayed for Katrina — and were plucked off the roof of their house by a Coast Guard helicopter. This time, Weaver has no inclination to ride out the storm.

"Everybody learned a lesson about staying, so the highways will be twice as packed this time," Weaver said.

Katrina struck New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005, and its storm surge blasted through the levees that protect the city. Eighty percent of the city was flooded.

Though pockets of the New Orleans are well on the way to recovery, many neighborhoods have struggled to recover. Many residents still live in temporary trailers, and shuttered homes still bear the 'X' that was painted to help rescue teams looking for the dead.

Many people never returned, and the city's population, around 310,000 people, is roughly two-thirds what it was before the storm, though various estimates vary wildly.

Since the storm, the Army Corps of Engineers has spent billions of dollars to improve the levee system, but because of two quiet hurricane seasons, the flood walls have never been tested.

Floodgates have been installed on drainage canals to stop any storm surge from entering the city, and levees have been raised and in many places strengthened with concrete. But they are not built to withstand a storm stronger than Katrina.

Gustav formed Monday and roared ashore Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane near the southern Haitian city of Jacmel with top winds near 90 mph, toppling palm trees and flooding the city's Victorian buildings.

The storm triggered flooding and landslides that killed 22 people in the Caribbean. It weakened into a tropical storm and appeared headed for Cuba, though it is likely to grow stronger in the coming days by drawing energy from warm open water.

Scientists cautioned that the storm's track and intensity were difficult to predict several days in advance.

But in New Orleans, there was little else to do except prepare as if it were Katrina. The Louisiana Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals was set to begin moving animals inland to shelters in Baton Rouge on Thursday, and more would go to Texas shelters on Friday and Saturday.

"We definitely don't want to wait until Saturday or Sunday to decide what to do," said Ana Zorrilla, director of the pet-rescue group.

In Grand Isle, tractor loads of dirt and clay mud were being hauled in to fill portions of the levee system damaged by Hurricane Katrina, said Grand Isle Mayor David Camardelle. The coastal community south of New Orleans historically is one of the first to evacuate when tropical weather threatens and was hard-hit by Katrina.

"I couldn't sleep last night," Carmardelle said. "We just came back from so much."

Emergency preparations also were under way along Mississippi's coast. The eye of Hurricane Katrina pushed ashore near the small towns of Waveland and Bay St. Louis, Miss., and along the 70-mile coastline, roughly 65,000 homes were destroyed, and thousands of businesses and hulking casino barges were wiped out.

"We don't need anything of this magnitude to come here," said Biloxi Mayor A. J. Holloway. "Katrina just devastated us."

The oil market also reacted to the threat. Oil prices jumped above $119 a barrel as workers began to evacuate from the offshore rigs responsible for a quarter of U.S. crude production. Any damage to the oil infrastructure or Gulf Coast refineries could send U.S. pump prices spiking, possibly before the busy Labor Day weekend.

"A bad storm churning in the Gulf could be a nightmare scenario," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "We might see oil prices spike $5 to $8 if it really rips into platforms."

Many residents hadn't yet made a decision about leaving. Lawson "Sonny" Brannan, a construction company owner, was busy renovating a client's home Wednesday, just blocks from where a levee was breached in the Lakeview neighborhood. A wall of water up to 15 feet deep wiped out the home.

Brannan calmly went about his business, but nonetheless kept a watchful eye on the weather.

"I'm not going to worry about it until I see it in the Gulf," he said. "Then I'll make my decisions."

___

Associated Press Writer Tamara Lush reported from Miami. AP writers Cain Burdeau, Mary Foster and Alan Sayre contributed to this report from New Orleans.
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#4017 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:32 pm

I think we should expect Gustav to do a huge amount in the ext 24hrs really, its weak and exposed right now and has to rebuild itself up again but if it can do that then no reason why this won't be a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4018 Postby Nederlander » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:32 pm

Image


Whats up with the blowup of convection south of Jamaica?
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Gustav between Cuba and Haiti

#4019 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:33 pm

If i was in that area I would behave the same way. I hope the same areas affected by katrina are spared. I hope this thing just fizzles.
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Re: Re:

#4020 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 27, 2008 6:34 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
wxmann_91 wrote:I think the NHC forecast is a bit bullish, we've seen some hurricanes that never really get their inner core back after a Hispaniola trip. I think this could be a Cat 1-2 in the GOM (assuming it makes it there), but probably not any stronger. I agree that 95L will likely be a much more interesting entity to track in the coming days. Of course both are still major threats to be taken seriously.

Haha u kidding? Thats what Id expect in about 60 hours. As long as this begins restrengthening in the next 12-18 hours, which it should, significant intensification is a pretty good bet. Notice that the usually pessimistic Derek Ortt is forecasting a 120kt hurricane in the gulf in 5 days.

Derek Ortt is not pessimistic. He calls as he sees.

I'm not kidding. I don't recall a single mature, well-formed storm that has gone over Hispaniola, especially for such a long time, and recovered fully back to its original strength. Not one. If this hadn't stalled yesterday night, I'd forecast a major, but right now, I cannot see how its inner core can possibly fully recover from a 48hr stay over 8000 ft mountains. JMO. Do I think this shouldn't be watched? No, this still poses a major threat of course. Do I think the threat for a major hurricane is significantly less than 24 hr ago? Yes.
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