ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

What happened that no obs haved yet been out.Last I saw the plane was at runway.

[HURAKAN]

There is always a confusion about Cuba's terrain.

[HarlequinBoy]

There is always a confusion about Cuba's terrain.

Ah, I didn't realize that the se corner was so mountainous. Thanks.


I wonder how much damage Grand Turk will have when the sun comes up. My guess is a lot.

[VeniceInlet]

I don't know if anyone's posted this tracking site yet but it was created by a guy who works for the Sarasota Herald Tribune. It's VERY cool.

http://ibiseye.com/

[fasterdisaster]

It's really only moutainous in the tail end and Cienfuegos-Santa Clara area? Funny, I always thought there were more mountains in the central area!

[Stormcenter]

I heard from friends that still work in LA that the channel at Port Fourchon silted up during Gustav, and only shallow draft boats, not the big supply boats can get out, so there is still some residual effect in Louisiana.


This won't help, of course.

If it comes close to the La. coast.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center near 21.2 north...So really no real fast southward motion. When it drops below 21 north then things could get more interesting.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know if anyone's posted this tracking site yet but it was created by a guy who works for the Sarasota Herald Tribune. It's VERY cool.

http://ibiseye.com/

Is there a program you need since it's stuck on 'Loading...' for me?

[cycloneye]

Center near 21.2 north...So really no real fast southward motion. When it drops below 21 north then things could get more interesting.

Why more interesting?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://xlr8.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_page ... ema=PORTAL

Models make a Hard West Turn on Day 5... keeping it South
of Louisiana and putting it on a Texas bound heading...still early
to tell and the models can switch back and forth...but a more
ominous trend for the western gulf at this point.

[ConvergenceZone]

My question is, what would prevent Ike from going into Mexico once it gets into the Gulf and bypassing the US States all together???

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Center near 21.2 north...So really no real fast southward motion. When it drops below 21 north then things could get more interesting.

Why more interesting?

Larger chance of it moving into the warmest sst's in the Atlantic south of Cuba after a trip over the eastern Part of Cuba.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

My question is, what would prevent Ike from going into Mexico once it gets into the Gulf and bypassing the US States all together???

The ridge to the north of Ike is strong, but not strong enough to keep it south and push
it into Mexico. Thus the models showing a more northern solution, but day 5 has a hard
west motion returning, continuing the west trend that has been taking place.

[fasterdisaster]

My question is, what would prevent Ike from going into Mexico once it gets into the Gulf and bypassing the US States all together???

a. The ridge is probably not strong enough
b. A trough could lift it up. Even if it didn't it would likely still go to mid-upper TX.

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive. Going to sleep and will be back early this morning.

[fasterdisaster]

I don't know if anyone's posted this tracking site yet but it was created by a guy who works for the Sarasota Herald Tribune. It's VERY cool.

http://ibiseye.com/

Is there a program you need since it's stuck on 'Loading...' for me?

Scratch this, it's working now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, thanx folks for the replies. I was just curious since some of the models depict such a sharp left turn.....but your comments makes sense. Guess we just need to see what happens.

[haml8]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

[Bunkertor]

It's really only moutainous in the tail end and Cienfuegos-Santa Clara area? Funny, I always thought there were more mountains in the central area!

Thanks to the Creator. Mountains are badly needed to grow coffee and tobacco.

[fasterdisaster]

Looks like some dry air on his west side? Not enough to significantly weaken it but anyone else notice some?