ATL IKE: Models Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6677
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4021 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:54 am

jimguru wrote:SORRY FOR THE BAD POST.. HERE IS THE LATEST



WHXX04 KWBC 110530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 11
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 24.7 86.3 315./ 6.0
6 24.9 87.1 286./ 7.8
12 25.2 88.0 291./ 8.3
18 25.5 88.8 284./ 7.9
24 25.7 89.8 286./ 9.3
30 26.0 90.9 285./10.7
36 26.6 92.0 299./11.2
42 27.3 93.3 297./12.9
48 28.1 94.2 310./11.4
54 28.9 95.2 311./12.3
60 30.1 96.0 326./13.3
66 31.4 96.5 340./13.3
72 32.9 96.3 7./15.2
78 34.5 95.6 23./17.7
84 36.5 93.9 40./23.4
90 38.2 91.1 59./28.6
96 39.4 87.5 71./30.0
102 40.6 83.4 74./33.9
108 41.5 78.9 79./35.0
114 42.6 73.6 78./40.9
120 43.6 68.7 78./37.0
126 44.9 63.9 75./37.0


Here is the link to go with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4022 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:56 am

That's the HWRF and that looks like Corpus to me.
0 likes   

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4023 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:59 am

Stormcenter wrote:Here is the link to go with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation


That's the HWRF animation. He posted the GFDL plots.

GFDL Animation
0 likes   

superfly

#4024 Postby superfly » Thu Sep 11, 2008 12:59 am

Concensus looks like it's back to Matagorda, let's see what the 00Z Euro says.
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

#4025 Postby shah8 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:00 am

There is something seriously wrong with the HWRF. Path and intensity dooooonnnn't quite look right. I'm not quite sure what makes me want to throw this one out to trash...
0 likes   

shah8
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:36 pm

#4026 Postby shah8 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:01 am

The GFDL is saying Cat 4 or 5 at landfall.

All I can say is hot damn. Election or no, this will be the story of the year, if that pans out.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4027 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:03 am

That's your GFDL replacement!!

I got real tired about hearing how great it was during earlier runs with IKE and runs with GUSTAV. :roll:
0 likes   

jimguru
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 50
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2008 12:50 am
Location: Centralia, Washington
Contact:

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4028 Postby jimguru » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:03 am

SORRY FOR THE BAD POST.. HERE IS THE LATEST

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 110530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE       09L
INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP 11
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)
   0            24.7             86.3           315./ 6.0
   6            24.9             87.1           286./ 7.8
  12            25.2             88.0           291./ 8.3
  18            25.5             88.8           284./ 7.9
  24            25.7             89.8           286./ 9.3
  30            26.0             90.9           285./10.7
  36            26.6             92.0           299./11.2
  42            27.3             93.3           297./12.9
  48            28.1             94.2           310./11.4
  54            28.9             95.2           311./12.3
  60            30.1             96.0           326./13.3
  66            31.4             96.5           340./13.3
  72            32.9             96.3             7./15.2
  78            34.5             95.6            23./17.7
  84            36.5             93.9            40./23.4
  90            38.2             91.1            59./28.6
  96            39.4             87.5            71./30.0
 102            40.6             83.4            74./33.9
 108            41.5             78.9            79./35.0
 114            42.6             73.6            78./40.9
 120            43.6             68.7            78./37.0
 126            44.9             63.9            75./37.0

[/quote]

Here is the link to go with it.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation[/quote]




I know this is a little off topic, but what happen to my nice neat numbers and columns? It got all jammed up. Maybe someone could message me or let me know how to fix that for the future. - Thanks in advance.
Last edited by jimguru on Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:22 am, edited 3 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
JessRomero
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Age: 42
Joined: Fri Aug 17, 2007 10:34 am
Location: Port Neches Texas

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4029 Postby JessRomero » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:04 am

I think once recon gets out of the storm and they enter the new stuff the models will change in the morning... Which worries me alot because I really think some counties in Texas seem to be taking this storm WAY to lightly... I sure hoped they learned from Rita but I really don't think they have..
0 likes   

User avatar
Duddy
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 363
Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4030 Postby Duddy » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:09 am

JessRomero wrote:I think once recon gets out of the storm and they enter the new stuff the models will change in the morning... Which worries me alot because I really think some counties in Texas seem to be taking this storm WAY to lightly... I sure hoped they learned from Rita but I really don't think they have..


I work at an AT&T Wireless Store. I talked with EVERYONE today about their plans. Out of nearly 280 customers, only 3 were leaving. Even some people on Matagorda beach were staying!

No, I would say they learned something. They learned not to evacuate, which is not good.

Since the consensus seems to be Matagorda still, except for the GFDL which has almost Galveston, I will be leaving inland tomorrow morning around 8AM. Right after the 7AM intermediate advisory.

I just don't think this one will pull the Rita scenario. I think we are looking at Carla II.

Gonna be hard for me to sleep tonight.
0 likes   

I-wall
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2008 5:24 pm

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4031 Postby I-wall » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:28 am

I have a question for those of you who know more about this than I do:

Without waiting for the next advisory....does it still look like this is going just south of Galveston? I dont know how to check all the models so i'm hoping someone can help me out. Thanks!
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4032 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:29 am

Refresher: when do the 06z GFDL/HWRF come out?
0 likes   

dwg71
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2349
Joined: Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4033 Postby dwg71 » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:31 am

Wx_Warrior wrote:Refresher: when do the 06z GFDL/HWRF come out?


after next advisory, almost 630am cst
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4034 Postby Nederlander » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:38 am

GFDL is showing 160+ mph winds at landfall :eek:
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4035 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:40 am

IMHO, not happening.
0 likes   

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1703
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4036 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:42 am

Nederlander wrote:GFDL is showing 160+ mph winds at landfall :eek:


Looks to me like it's got 120 knots at landfall. However, it does have 140 knots right BEFORE landfall.
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4037 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:43 am

0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1248
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4038 Postby Nederlander » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:43 am

bob rulz wrote:
Nederlander wrote:GFDL is showing 160+ mph winds at landfall :eek:


Looks to me like it's got 120 knots at landfall. However, it does have 140 knots right BEFORE landfall.


you are right bob... i stand corrected...
0 likes   

Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4039 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:46 am

Thoughts on the EURO? A west movement near corpus then goes due north left of Galveston...?
0 likes   

bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1703
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#4040 Postby bob rulz » Thu Sep 11, 2008 1:48 am

I-wall wrote:I have a question for those of you who know more about this than I do:

Without waiting for the next advisory....does it still look like this is going just south of Galveston? I dont know how to check all the models so i'm hoping someone can help me out. Thanks!


Looks to me like GFDL has it at 140mph at Matagorda Bay and HWRF has 130mph at Corpus Christi. The links to both of these models are posted further up the page. Just keep watching this page (and search back a few pages) and all the model links should be posted.
0 likes   


Return to “2008”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 48 guests