ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jlauderdal]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

How is that? Maybe I'm missing something, but I've yet to see any sort of west wind.

the navy has dispatched a fleet of ships to the area to do recon but didn't tell anybody,

[gatorcane]

continues to organize EVEN going over Hispaniola.....not a good sign I have to admit. This thing's best chance to weaken is in the next 12-24 hours or so, after that I just don't see much that could really damage it unfortunately (maybe the mountains of Eastern Cuba??)

[senorpepr]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

How is that? Maybe I'm missing something, but I've yet to see any sort of west wind.

[Steve]

>>Not particularly responsible journalism
I will avoid further comment to preclude me from getting "political" at all.

Agreed. I watch Fox (aka Faux News) as often as I watch the other major outlets - when I'm clicking the channels. Hype & fear sells television time, and they've got a great formula to keep people glued. No political comment there, just a casual observation from a "moderate" political mind.



For any of you in the DR or Haiti, looks like the TPC/NHC is advising you for the potential of heavy rainfall. Be careful if you are in an area prone to flash flooding just in case.

Steve

[txwatcher91]

Does anyone think there is some type of LLC near the "o" in Romana in this radar?
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

[GreenSky]

continues to organize EVEN going over Hispaniola.....not a good sign I have to admit:

Gator, what is the official word about where a LLC might be trying to develop...and what is the official heading? 275, 280, 290?

There is 10,000+ foot mountain peak in the DR...if 92L gets close enough, expect it to go bye bye!

[NEXRAD]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does anyone think there is some type of LLC near the "o" in Romana in this radar?
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002

Very possible. Hopefully the Recon will get down there and check it out.

[gatorcane]

general movement is WNW I agree with the NHC --- the 10,000ft mountain won't matter when the "bulk" of the energy of the weak system moves far above it at the H5 500MB levels...so should remain nicely in tact (although it shouldn't strengthen much more than you see now until departing the big island)

[JonathanBelles]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My Florida Thoughts:

The disturbance that we have been watching has not intensified or even got its act together to intensify in the last 24hrs. The track has changed a tad bit. Last night the disturbance went over the island of PR, and is moving in the island of Hispaniola as I type. This will keep the disturbance on land much longer than expected before, but the intensity at the end of the forecast near Florida has not changed. The chances for effects in Florida, however, have risen. I still expect a curve to the north, but that curve is looking to be right around the northernmost Keys with the possibility of being 100 miles to the left or right. This system has the ability to impact the entire state of Florida. The system has not yet become a TD, and may not for another day or two because of the interaction with the DR. Again, my first complete amateur forecast will be done when a Tropical Depression declared.Those here in Florida should expect the effects of this system in the middle of next week.

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports 45 kt winds right now if we have a center. (Even if we don't, the effects are the same for those in line)

[Blown Away]

OFFICIAL MESSAGE: Nobody has a clue where that circulation center is, let's wait for recon.

[lonelymike]

I know WX57 said he didn't think this would get west of 85 because of the winds blowing west in the atmosphere Any other pro mets have any thoughts on that?

Anyone, Anyone

[artist]

I don't know where it is going to go, or when, but I do know it is going to be a big storm for someone near by. My 2 dogs that sense these biggies will not leave my side, and when they have to are hiding under things and are refusing to go outside without me right next to them, even then hesitantly. This has only happened with Frances, Jeanne, Charlie and Wilma. They are driving me nuts!

[MiamiensisWx]

Residents along mountainous regions and elevated terrain in the Dominican Republic should be prepared for locally copious rainfall... this is a serious precip threat in regards to mudslides/rockslides and flooding.

[vbhoutex]

This is likely TS Fay now per reconnaissance data. Data seems to confirm a center and TS winds at the surface. We merely need an upgrade.

If the NHC has not upgraded this system by now, do you really think they will as it is moving into Hispanola and could likely be gone after passing through? What lat/long is the LLC?

All I can say is that if 92L was in GOM, the NHC would have upgraded this thing like 2 days ago

Enough of this questioning the NHC and making assumptions you have no way of proving. This is the final warning to EVERYONE concerning this.

It is one thing to discuss how one thinks the NHC is incorrect and provide support. It is another to make statements that you have no way of proving. Let's stay with the first part of this paragraph please!!

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:

general movement is WNW I agree with the NHC --- the 10,000ft mountain won't matter when the "bulk" of the energy of the weak system moves far above it at the H5 500MB levels...so should remain nicely in tact (although it shouldn't strengthen much more than you see now until departing the big island)

That WNW was before the latest model run, I think they will change that to W for now which will put 92L into the mountains.

[Category 5]

If they do find a closed LLC, this will be fay.

17:49:00Z 18.75N 67.77W 962.3 mb
(~ 28.42 inHg) 435 meters
(~ 1,427 feet) 1011.7 mb
(~ 29.88 inHg) - From 139° at 35 knots
(From the SE at ~ 40.2 mph) 21.9°C
(~ 71.4°F) 17.0°C
(~ 62.6°F) 36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph) 45 knots
(~ 51.7 mph) 0 mm/hr
(~ 0 in/hr) 43.8 knots (~ 50.3 mph)
Tropical Storm 125.0%

[GreenSky]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

So with that current position and its current heading, 92L should be skirmishing the northern coast of DR...not the southern coast, right?

Or do you think it is going to be going right through DR's spine, like FOX13WEATHER suggested?

I take your analysis seriously NexRad, always a pleasure reading your analysis.

[hurricanefloyd5]

My best radar-estimated possible LLC is near 18.8N, 68.7W. On visible imagery, though, it seems like it might be a little north and west of this position, though.

- Jay

why dose every here think that the llcc is south of the island and north north, I mean they(NHC) already told us where the MLC is and where the llc is possible am I right???????