ATL: IKE Discussion

[njweather]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

A Texas threat is definitely possible...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow. Somewhere ballpark CRP, but if the ridge is really that strong, it could just as well cruise all the way to Tampico.


Canadian is near Destin, so it is still a big mystery.

[haml8]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow. Somewhere ballpark CRP, but if the ridge is really that strong, it could just as well cruise all the way to Tampico.


Canadian is near Destin, so it is still a big mystery.

Thanks for the feedback guys! That ridge turned out to be more powerful than everyone thought huh? I looked at the models earlier today and thought I saw there was an anticipated weakness in the ridge that would recurve this to Florida (Tampa/panhandle) guess that was shot down? Any chance that it still does that?

[Stormcenter]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow. Somewhere ballpark CRP, but if the ridge is really that strong, it could just as well cruise all the way to Tampico.


Canadian is near Destin, so it is still a big mystery.

IS the CMC seeing a stronger trough possibly?

[vaffie]

Dvorak numbers back up to 5.5/5.5 for the 0Z. What a mess this week could turn out to be for Texas. I almost feel like staying awake to see what the Euro says. Will it still show that strong high over Mexico/S. Texas that pushes Ike south at the last minute? I doubt it. With this latest run and no doubt the GFDL/HWRF/EURO will still be pointing at Texas, the NHC will undoubtedly have to shift their official forecast track south again, and it will then be pointing unmistakeably at SE Texas. Not a good place to be, even considering the error rates at 5 days, all jokes aside about it being good to be the 5 day target.

06/2345 UTC 21.4N 70.2W T5.5/5.5 IKE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 4:30z image shows soild ring of red all the way around, but a much smaller and mostly clouded eye. That could clear out and this could be a sign of strengthing.

[vaffie]

Ed,

What is the bottom line here, I just had a look and there are some 30 pages since I last looked. What is the skinny on the storm, looks like the models have move a bit in the last 24 and the GOM is a reality. Any Texas threat at all?

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow. Somewhere ballpark CRP, but if the ridge is really that strong, it could just as well cruise all the way to Tampico.


Canadian is near Destin, so it is still a big mystery.

IS the CMC seeing a stronger trough possibly?

The Canadian is dreadful at forecasting hurricane tracks. It had Gustav bumping into Tampa...that should tell you something.

[fasterdisaster]

Dvorak numbers back up to 5.5/5.5 for the 0Z. What a mess this week could turn out to be for Texas. I almost feel like staying awake to see what the Euro says. Will it still show that strong high over Mexico/S. Texas that pushes Ike south at the last minute? I doubt it. With this latest run and no doubt the GFDL/HWRF/EURO will still be pointing at Texas, the NHC will undoubtedly have to shift their official forecast track south again, and it will then be pointing unmistakeably at SE Texas. Not a good place to be, even considering the error rates at 5 days, all jokes aside about it being good to be the 5 day target.

06/2345 UTC 21.4N 70.2W T5.5/5.5 IKE

It would also bring this south of Cuba longer, giving it less time to weaken.

[Sanibel]

Just a hair north of trop point and more west now. See where it comes in on the next trop point. Sanibel need sleep now:

[Wx_Warrior]

CMC and UKMET are the worst IMHO...Still a ways out so we could see models trend as far south as Brownsville, IF, that 'trough' doesn't pick him up. I'm thinking Monday most questions will be answered.

[Ad Novoxium]

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow. Somewhere ballpark CRP, but if the ridge is really that strong, it could just as well cruise all the way to Tampico.


Canadian is near Destin, so it is still a big mystery.

IS the CMC seeing a stronger trough possibly?

The Canadian is dreadful at forecasting hurricane tracks. It had Gustav bumping into Tampa...that should tell you something.

Let's not forget that in 2005, CMC took Beta all the way into Florida.

[Over my head]

The new GFS will have the Texas posters all over the board tomorrow.

Have been all along. I still have that "nada" chance in my pocket I was given by a poster a couple days ago.

[Sanibel]

Last frames were west on the 21 latitude.

[haml8]

Anyone have a good snap shot before the lights went out? RGB hi res? Looking VERY impressive on IR and WV.. The eye has grown considerably since yesterday.

[jinftl]

What could be an interesting developement in the next few days is that if the tracks stays more on the southern side of the cone, tropical storm warnings may be needed for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands. That would be remarkable from a storm now north of both of those locations in latitude.

Not having a hurricane warning for north coast of haiti is a close call as well.




(Posted in Models thread by mistake...apologize for double post...not quick enough to delete post from there)

[pablolopez26]

I agree this storm does look very impressive. Lets hope that Cuba keeps this thing in check before he traverses the GOM. Not that its going to matter if it stays on its West/NW course.

[fasterdisaster]

Last frames were west on the 21 latitude.

I believe he's been stairstepping, west wobbles followed by southwest wobbles.

[Cyclenall]

Why are there hurricane warnings for the central Bahamas but not northern Haiti? The central Bahamas are a lot further north from the storm then Haiti!

[HouTXmetro]

Why are there hurricane warnings for the central Bahamas but not northern Haiti? The central Bahamas are a lot further north from the storm then Haiti!

Bahamas will be on the dirty side.

[cape_escape]

So, in about the span of 24-hours Ike has been said to re-curve off the eat coast of Fla, hit Miami, Plow through the Keys, sat right off the West Coast of Fla, gone to the Panhandle, LA/ Al and now is headed to Tx....some are even suggesting Mexico!

Wow! I'm dizzy! Whose to say at this rate, Ike doesn't go further south, do a loop-de-loop around cuba and head back East across the whole bottom of Fla? I'm joking of course, but at this point I'm wore out and delusional...lol