ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Annie Oakley]

No-one posted the 8 o'clock NHC advisories? Highly unusual for S2k unless I missed it....

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

center was very close to the mountains again today

Jeanne (which had a well-defined inner-core when it struck Santo Domingo) looked like this after it was hung up in the mountains. It took several days to recover

[Stephanie]

I don't think so sunnyday. Gustav is headed for better conditions to strengthen.

[Brent]

No-one posted the 8 o'clock NHC advisories? Highly unusual for S2k unless I missed it....

I posted it in the advisory thread.

As for Gustav dissipating, well it's definitely possible but I don't think it's likely right now. I really think this will strengthen again even though it might take 24-36 hours.

[Just Joshing You]

I just feel I need to say this.

Remember how fast it ramped from a Depression to a Hurricane? Like 12 hours. The NHC is forecasting this to be a Hurricane again in like 24-36 hours. You have to be kidding yourself if you don't think it can organize in 24-36 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Is Gustav likely to dissipate since its wind speed is half of what it was last night?

Not likely, still a lot of moisture, low shear and very warm seas and still has a LLC with a warm core. This should re-strengthen gradually over the next 24 hours and then RI is possible once it gets west of Jamaica.

[cycloneye]

No-one posted the 8 o'clock NHC advisories? Highly unusual for S2k unless I missed it....

Every advisory is posted in the Advisories thread.

[MGC]

Those of you ready to write Gustav's obituary had better brush up on their hurricane history. One memorable hurricane that directly struck Hispaniola and later regrouped to become a major hurricane was Fredrick in 1979. Fredrick did the grand tour of the Greater Antillies only to become a major hurricane in the GOM shortly after moving off the Cuban coast. Of course, I'm hopeing Gustav is the biggest bust of the season....MGC

[Just Joshing You]

It would be very irresponsible for anyone to mention the possibility of it dissipating or not being anything but a catastrophic storm in the Gulf. Until the NHC says otherwise, you should prepare for what they are forecasting.

[Annie Oakley]

No-one posted the 8 o'clock NHC advisories? Highly unusual for S2k unless I missed it....

I posted it in the advisory thread.

As for Gustav dissipating, well it's definitely possible but I don't think it's likely right now.

Oops! Sorry-jumped the gun..Thanks!

[deltadog03]

I am def. not sending this to the grave yet, but goodness he looks horrible right now.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Posted earlier but got no response. What if anything has the blob south of Jamaica got to do with Gustav. Looks to be pulling energy away IMO. Just wondering if it could absorb him or the other way around and help jumpstart the strengthening process.

[mvtrucking]

No-one posted the 8 o'clock NHC advisories? Highly unusual for S2k unless I missed it....

From the 8:00 pm advisory:


AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR 65
MILES...100 KM...SOUTH OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TRACK TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GUSTAV SHOULD PASS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GUSTAV
VERY NEAR JAMAICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ONCE GUSTAV MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM HAITI...AND THE STORM COULD
REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

[KWT]

Well as Derek said its a ruined system, its pretty good much got to start over again, thats not to say this can't become a powerful hurricane still, but just means its more likely to occur down the line rather then now, indeed Lili at this stage was'nt all that strong neither and I think the strength forecast is also looking more reasonable to compare with Lili as well as the track.

[Cape Verde]

I don't know where this 8000 foot legend of Haiti mountains comes from. Where the storm crossed the island, they're at like 2000 feet or less.

They are that high about 20-30 miles south of the center now. The storm crossed in a less mountainous area but the point area is higher. The highest in that region are about 7,000 feet.

They're not. You have to get on the outskirts of Port au Prince to find where they're even 5000 feet.

This really isn't a subject of debate. It is what it is.

[expat2carib]

What is that big blob on Gustav's tail?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Lots of rain and thunder here.(Dominica)

[RL3AO]

Well as Derek said its a ruined system, its pretty good much got to start over again, thats not to say this can't become a powerful hurricane still, but just means its more likely to occur down the line rather then now, indeed Lili at this stage was'nt all that strong neither and I think the strength forecast is also looking more reasonable to compare with Lili as well as the track.

His new forecast is still a cat 3 in the GOM.

[tolakram]

Is this interesting?



Circulation around Jamaica?

[RL3AO]

Is this interesting?

Circulation around Jamaica?

So much land and such poor resolution its hard to take anything from it, IMO.

And its 12 hours old.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Maybe the GFS is gonna pull one out of the basket after all. It's been insistent on keeping Gustav at minimal strength from the onset and that stock is going up a little.