ATL: IKE Discussion

[HurricaneQueen]

The first direct victims. The Turks and Caicos.

It looks as if Gretchen (greels) will be having a long night as they (Providenciales) are still well west of the first direct hit by about 40 miles. Thinking of them as a Cat 4 barrels in, as I know many others on the board are as well.

Lynn

[jinftl]

Be curious if hurricane warning issued for haiti in next update.

It is a bit funny to see Central Bahamas outside of cone but in hurricane warning...could be a precautionary thing or even a breakpoint issue based on how standard warnings are placed in the Bahamas. Or the storm is somewhat south of where he was expected to be by this point.

Why are there hurricane warnings for the central Bahamas but not northern Haiti? The central Bahamas are a lot further north from the storm then Haiti!

[haml8]

So, in about the span of 24-hours Ike has been said to re-curve off the eat coast of Fla, hit Miami, Plow through the Keys, sat right off the West Coast of Fla, gone to the Panhandle, LA/ Al and now is headed to Tx....some are even suggesting Mexico!

Wow! I'm dizzy! Whose to say at this rate, Ike doesn't go further south, do a loop-de-loop around cuba and head back East across the whole bottom of Fla? I'm joking of course, but at this point I'm wore out and delusional...lol

Is that an official forescat from you? Now if it does do that you will be able to say you were the first one that suggested it

[cape_escape]

So, in about the span of 24-hours Ike has been said to re-curve off the eat coast of Fla, hit Miami, Plow through the Keys, sat right off the West Coast of Fla, gone to the Panhandle, LA/ Al and now is headed to Tx....some are even suggesting Mexico!

Wow! I'm dizzy! Whose to say at this rate, Ike doesn't go further south, do a loop-de-loop around cuba and head back East across the whole bottom of Fla? I'm joking of course, but at this point I'm wore out and delusional...lol

Is that an official forescat from you? Now if it does do that you will be able to say you were the first one that suggested it

Now that would be wild...lol! Def not a forecast, just words from a weary mind...

[TampaFl]

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

[haml8]

K I dont like the long term 00z GFS trend...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

With the NHC plots they don't do it based on wobbles unless its a very long wobble! They average their motion out over a 5 or 6 hour (or more) time frame.

[HouTXmetro]

???? Is the surge large enough to completely submerge some of those tiny Islands?

[Brent]

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

Gained .1 since 11pm. Very interesting.

12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT

[jinftl]

In any other instance, seeing a map like that would scare the you know what out of me...and the rest...of south florida...

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

With the NHC plots they don't do it based on wobbles unless its a very long wobble! They average their motion out over a 5 or 6 hour (or more) time frame.

[cape_escape]

In any other instance, seeing a map like that would scare the you know what out of me...and the rest...of south florida...

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

With the NHC plots they don't do it based on wobbles unless its a very long wobble! They average their motion out over a 5 or 6 hour (or more) time frame.

Are you sure we shouldn't worry? With Ike....who knows anymore!

I won't be happy until he's on land somewhere in the US, and even then well inland....although I feel for whoever does get him!

[jinftl]

Knowing the forecast, the reasoning behind it, the model runs....yes, it is still disturbing to see

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

With the NHC plots they don't do it based on wobbles unless its a very long wobble! They average their motion out over a 5 or 6 hour (or more) time frame.

Are you sure we shouldn't worry? With Ike....who knows anymore!

I won't be happy until he's on land somewhere in the US, and even then well inland....although I feel for whoever does get him![/quote]

[cape_escape]

[quote="jinftl"]Knowing the forecast, the reasoning behind it, the model runs....yes, it is still disturbing to see



Thats good to know.... I guess I'm still a bit hurricane shy after the great Charley incident....

[ravyrn]

I live in Lake Charles, Louisiana --- and we got real lucky with Gustav and only got a mild brush of its rains and winds. We still had a mandatory evacuation and I missed out on my 4 cash days at the restaurant I work which equaled out to no onhand income plus spent money for those 3 days we had to stay out of town. At this point in time, I really can't afford another evacuation. What are the chances of the storm affecting us at this point? Is a SW Louisiana landfall possibe, or even a SE Texas landfall that would still affect us? What is a pro met's opinion at this point? Because I will need to start working 2 shifts a day to cover expenses and lost income if we have to redo this last weekend/early week again next week. I appreciate any insight that can be offered and very much appreciate what you guys do here. My roommate showed me this website pre-Gustav and it was very informative and helpful w/ making decisions regarding Gustav.

[txag2005]

Crazy...looks like Houston has another storm to watch.

[HouTXmetro]

I live in Lake Charles, Louisiana --- and we got real lucky with Gustav and only got a mild brush of its rains and winds. We still had a mandatory evacuation and I missed out on my 4 cash days at the restaurant I work which equaled out to no onhand income plus spent money for those 3 days we had to stay out of town. At this point in time, I really can't afford another evacuation. What are the chances of the storm affecting us at this point? Is a SW Louisiana landfall possibe, or even a SE Texas landfall that would still affect us? What is a pro met's opinion at this point? Because I will need to start working 2 shifts a day to cover expenses and lost income if we have to redo this last weekend/early week again next week. I appreciate any insight that can be offered and very much appreciate what you guys do here. My roommate showed me this website pre-Gustav and it was very informative and helpful w/ making decisions regarding Gustav.

It's just too early to know.

[bob rulz]

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AUTOMATED OBSERVING SITE IN THE TURKS ISLANDS
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 114 MPH.

I hate to see the damage reports that come out of this. That island is getting a direct strike from a ridiculously powerful Ike.

And to whoever asked, yes the surge is definitely high enough to submerge some of these tiny islands. However, unless it's a direct strike (which of course it is on this one; not sure which one?), surge tends to move around a lot of them. I'm guessing that's one reason we don't see more casualties in the Bahamas?

[jinftl]

What is clear is that the Turks & Caicos and soon the se bahamas....are in the thick of ike....no glancing blow, fringe effects, or anything like thta for the T&C tonight. God bless them.

2:00am poistiom - starting to move west now? Will see if this is a wooble or trend.

Gained .1 since 11pm. Very interesting.

12HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 73.0W 120 KT

[Jagno]

Ravyrn check your Private Messages.

[opera ghost]

???? Is the surge large enough to completely submerge some of those tiny Islands?

I believe the tiny ones are uninhabited. So, perhaps they'll submerge and that would be terrible for the wildlife, but we're not likely to see damage reports from them.