ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[cpdaman]

It would be very irresponsible for anyone to mention the possibility of it dissipating or not being anything but a catastrophic storm in the Gulf. Until the NHC says otherwise, you should prepare for what they are forecasting.

i understand you are concerned, but please don't tell me what i can and can't post about

posts like this (may have good intentions) but limit discussion of possibilities and do nothing but except add furthe alarm (though not your intention)

[latemodel25]

Maybe the GFS is gonna pull one out of the basket after all. It's been insistent on keeping Gustav at minimal strength from the onset and that stock is going up a little.

That would be good because if not somewhere is going to have some major issues to deal with at the strength most are predicting..

[gerrit]

center was very close to the mountains again today

Plenty of mountains over 2,000 meters (6,500') in that area. There's a 7,700 peak in the west most mountain range (massif de la hotte)

[ConvergenceZone]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

Yep, and to think of all of the people who were screaming at us earlier for saying that this doesn't look good at all....I also wouldn't be suprised to wake up tomorrow to an open wave....
There may not be anything left of it to get together...



95L should keep us busy though regardless what this does...

[Annie Oakley]

Well as Derek said its a ruined system, its pretty good much got to start over again, thats not to say this can't become a powerful hurricane still, but just means its more likely to occur down the line rather then now, indeed Lili at this stage was'nt all that strong neither and I think the strength forecast is also looking more reasonable to compare with Lili as well as the track.

His new forecast is still a cat 3 in the GOM.

Ha!!! Gotta love it! He is great!

[LAwxrgal]

I so hope you guys are right and this storm is falling apart at the seams..... there are a lot of frayed nerves here, and in my house as well.

[bigGbear]

Cuba needs to drop the hurricane warning immediately

Yep, and to think of all of the people who were screaming at us earlier for saying that this doesn't look good at all....I also wouldn't be suprised to wake up tomorrow to an open wave....
There may not be anything left of it to get together...



95L should keep us busy though regardless what this does...

MLC pulled back toward Haiti - perhaps relocating near 18.9 and 74.5?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've seen it before--I posted it in this thread. I've seen the mountains of Haiti really do numbers on these systems. They are big mountains. Do I think it is dead? Not likely. But, it could be in trouble. The mountains of Haiti can completely dismantle the low level circulation of a tropical system. We'll know by morning what damage these mountains did.

[Cape Verde]

center was very close to the mountains again today

Plenty of mountains over 2,000 meters (6,500') in that area. There's a 7,700 peak in the west most mountain range (massif de la hotte)

If that's accurate, and it's probably more reliable that Google Earth, then I stand corrected. When I run my pointer over the terrain of the peninsula using that program, I can't find anything approaching that.

[latemodel25]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

Hard to say. Tomorrow morning will tell us a lot more.

[dwg71]

no way this is a tropical storm atm. what will nhc do at 10PM?

[RL3AO]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

No. Not really.

[Squarethecircle]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

Did you or did you not see the wind prob table?

[LAwxrgal]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

Hard to say. Tomorrow morning will tell us a lot more.

For everyone's sake I hope he does. Die Gustav Die....

But... I'm listening to the NHC on this and preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. I do hope the GFS is onto something.

[AL Chili Pepper]

so good possibility gustav might fizzle out?

I'd say it still has a better chance of developing. I agree that tomorrow should tell us a lot.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Good God...I rarely watch TWC, but, they clock winds around the center of circulation at 12mph. Geez.....

[dwg71]

Good God...I rarely watch TWC, but, they clock winds around the center of circulation at 12mph. Geez.....

probably pretty accurate atm...

[Brent]

Good God...I rarely watch TWC, but, they clock winds around the center of circulation at 12mph. Geez.....

Actually that's probably right. Pathetic.

[ConvergenceZone]

no way this is a tropical storm atm. what will nhc do at 10PM?

That's a good question dwg71. I think that there's a chance it's an open wave right now, but I'm not too sure if the NHC will declare it an open wave or just go with the "depression" status on the next update, but because the media is all over this... I think they will let it down slowly....

Now I know, open waves can still still rebuild and this can still be a storm in the Gulf, but if it does develop down the road, the intensity won't be near as bad.....but I do agree with the MET on here that it looks absolutely horrible. Doesn't even look like a tropical storm anymore at all...I've seen waves look better than this....