ATL: IKE Discussion

[funster]

Texas is a possibility but we have a ways to go yet. If it does happen the Texas coast probably won't be in the NHC's three day cone until Monday or Tuesday.

[cape_escape]

???? Is the surge large enough to completely submerge some of those tiny Islands?

I believe the tiny ones are uninhabited. So, perhaps they'll submerge and that would be terrible for the wildlife, but we're not likely to see damage reports from them.

I just read on Wiki that one of them inhabits a bunch of wild horses, donkeys and birds....very sad in my book

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Pressure is now down to 945mb (down 2mb from last VDM)

Lowest Pressure Location: 2108N 07136W (Lowest Pressure: 944.8mb)

Hurricane Ike wind field profile:

NorthEast:
SouthEast: 105kts
NorthWest: 117kts
SouthWest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like I was wrong about the strengthing. It is the same as the last past through 6 hours ago.

[Laser30033003]

wow is it going W now? I hope it doesn't just curve around the bottom of the high. It seem it me to be going right of the NHC path. If it stays North of Cuba what will that mean in the long run?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks like I was wrong about the strengthing. It is the same as the last past through 6 hours ago.

We don't know that yet because it was in the NorthEast quad where they were finding the strongest winds last time. They haven't been to the NorthEast quad yet and the pressure is down 2mb.

[Stratosphere747]

06:32:00Z 21.383N 71.883W
(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,855 meters
(~ 9,367 feet) 972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) - From 50° at 115 knots
(From the NE at ~ 132.2 mph)

[Tom8]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like I was wrong about the strengthing. It is the same as the last past through 6 hours ago.

We don't know that yet because it was in the NorthEast quad where they were finding the strongest winds last time. They haven't been to the NorthEast quad yet and the pressure is down 2mb.

The extrap is the same...Last time confirmed vortex message was 947 with it. We will see what the offical number is. I would also not be suprized if there was winds to support 140 mph...

[physicx07]

06:32:00Z 21.383N 71.883W
(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,855 meters
(~ 9,367 feet) 972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) - From 50° at 115 knots
(From the NE at ~ 132.2 mph)

What's this?

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

06:32:00Z 21.383N 71.883W
(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,855 meters
(~ 9,367 feet) 972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) - From 50° at 115 knots
(From the NE at ~ 132.2 mph)

What's this?

I think thats a dropsonde from the northwest eyewall

[Aric Dunn]

kind of funny looking ...

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Looks like maybe some dry air or shear affecting the northern part of it.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Looking at this map showing the Cuban topography, and seeing some of the models, I have a question.

If Ike misses the mountainous terrain on the Southeastern tip and cruises along the more flattened plains area before emerging from the island nation, will it still be enough to weaken it as much as some were contemplating that it would earlier today? Some folks seemed to indicate that Ike may be disrupted all of the way down to a TS and I know that I saw at least one post that claimed a possible TD even.

I know that land interaction interferes with these storms but, I'm just wondering how much weakening would occur if Ike missed the higher elevations that could possibly be in his path.

Thanks for any input.

~Nikki~

[shawn67]

Looks like the Ike will come in radar view shortly:

[Bunkertor]

Nice Eumetsat-Animation of current depressions

http://www.eumetsat.int/groups/public/documents/multimedia/mpg_homepage_hurricanealley.mpg

or

http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/index.htm

[physicx07]

Looking at this map showing the Cuban topography, and seeing some of the models, I have a question.

If Ike misses the mountainous terrain on the Southeastern tip and cruises along the more flattened plains area before emerging from the island nation, will it still be enough to weaken it as much as some were contemplating that it would earlier today? Some folks seemed to indicate that Ike may be disrupted all of the way down to a TS and I know that I saw at least one post that claimed a possible TD even.

I know that land interaction interferes with these storms but, I'm just wondering how much weakening would occur if Ike missed the higher elevations that could possibly be in his path.

Thanks for any input.

~Nikki~

My personal opinion: Ike should be moving fairly quick. If it moves through flatlands, it shouldn't take too much of a hit. Judging from some other storms this year that have moved over land (not just in Cuba) I would think 6-8 hours over flat land would probably drop it a category, maybe 2. So maybe a cat 2-3. More importantly, the core should remain intact and it should easily reintensify if conditions are good on the other side. So to answer your question, I think it would just be a speed bump under the conditions you've posed.

[Harry Cane]

Please spare a moment to pray for the people of Cuba who live in the affected areas.
Also there are some amazing old towns like sancti spiritus and Trinidad a UNESCO protected national monument. South of cayo Coco there are amazing islands . Also Guardalavaca is absolutely superb.
What a disaster....


Edited by CM to take out political reference.

[Duddy]

You guys think that the NHC will adjust the track south and west at day 5 because of the 00z model's shift?

[Cyclenall]

I just took one last looks at the loop of Ike, and I rarely say this but it could be turning Annular. I can tell based on the evoultion of the convection around the eye and the "dryer" affect where the debris in the eye is spinning around like clothing in a dryer. The eye looks primed for a very round, solid good time! A shame it could hit land though soon .