ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jlauderdal]

If the NHC has not upgraded this system by now, do you really think they will as it is moving into Hispanola and could likely be gone after passing through? What lat/long is the LLC?[/quote]

All I can say is that if 92L was in GOM, the NHC would have upgraded this thing like 2 days ago[/quote]

I really can't see how you can justify a comment like that.

Why would there be a reason to use two different sets of measures for upgrading???[/quote]

cycloneye went down this road yesterday and he was off base

[Derek Ortt]

DR radar is linked form the nwhhc site

[wxman57]

Here's a current surface plot with 1K visible satellite overlay. Not exactly the best-defined low-level wind field. The new GFDL tracks it south of the DR, avoiding every piece of land for the next day or so then cuts it across the narrow part of Cuba and north to the mid FL panhandle as a 94kt hurricane in 5 days. Interesting. Similar to 12Z GFS track but more left. 12Z GFS may be on to something.

[Derek Ortt]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDSD.html

weak NNW wind, not enough to close off a center

also, pressures not significantly lower than this time yesterday

not much to see folks, remains a wave

[GreenSky]

Enough of this questioning the NHC and making assumptions you have no way of proving. This is the final warning to EVERYONE concerning this.

It is one thing to discuss how one thinks the NHC is incorrect and provide support. It is another to make statements that you have no way of proving. Let's stay with the first part of this paragraph please!!

I remember a discussion here on Storm2k about how systems in the GOM are usually handled more aggressively and upgraded sooner than Atlantic invests...this speculative view was shared by many credible posters on Storm2k. I tried looking for it but it is buried somewhere in the annals.
Other pro-mets have also chimed in their surprise, especially yesterday, about 92L not being upgraded. Not bashing the NHC, but just wondering what's on their minds. I think its fine to question as long as it is done respectfully.

I have been wading these pages the last few days and do not remember any Pro Met questioning 92L not being upgraded. Most have been bullish on development and expecting it but I do not recall any saying they were surprised that it had not been upgraded.
Surprise that it had not risen to the level of being upgraded but not questioning the lack of an upgrade.
In fact, the Pros have been voices of reason defending the status of the system as an Invest and not a TD.
Please correct me if I am wrong.[/quote]

You're right. By God, don't wade through these pages...I was talking about something from another page regarding some other invest. Let's let it die and focus on 92L. I like NHC, alright Fci. They are the pros who make fewer mistakes then amateurs like us.

HOLY CRAP! 92L IS EXPANDING LIKE HELL!

[artist]

thanks for posting guys. So is this normal cat behaviour?
greels, your dog as well? Mine don't like the thunder and lightning but they will just go off into a corner if we have a storm. This is like they are glued to me and will not leave for anything. They are big dogs and I am constantly stepping on them today!

[Air Force Met]

Here's a current surface plot with 1K visible satellite overlay. Not exactly the best-defined low-level wind field. The new GFDL tracks it south of the DR, avoiding every piece of land for the next day or so then cuts it across the narrow part of Cuba and north to the mid FL panhandle as a 94kt hurricane in 5 days. Interesting. Similar to 12Z GFS track but more left. 12Z GFS may be on to something.

I tried to mention a possible track south of the DR earlier this morning...but I got laughed at by a few who kept saying this was certainly traveling along the north coast and going to miss the DR.

[Normandy]

I certainly did not expect this to head south of the DR, and it appears it might be doing so. This is one of the most poorly handled systems by the models in recent memory.

[Steve]

>>The new GFDL tracks it south of the DR, avoiding every piece of land for the next day or so then cuts it across the narrow part of Cuba and north to the mid FL panhandle as a 94kt hurricane in 5 days. Interesting. Similar to 12Z GFS track but more left. 12Z GFS may be on to something.

It's amazing how some systems, even those without a well-defined surface circulation will avoid land. Crazy almost that they would just know to stay over the water. Thanks for the info and the output. Interested to see how the evolution of the CONUS trof that I thought bottomed out yesterday goes. Does a surface low or post-frontal trough low spin up and create that weakness? Is it the eastern side of the trough itself with the SW winds ahead of it? IMHO, it still pretty much holds that nothing north of Pasco (or maybe Hernando) or east of Gulf/Franklin/Wakulla Counties ever gets to be a major. There may be 1 (not sure) in all of recorded weather history.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

[gatorcane]

alright folks please take a minute to look at this vis loop. This should clear up any confusion. I clearly see an "LLC" moving along the northern coast of Dr...possibly on the northern part of the island. All of that deep convection to the south is feeding into it. Check out 18N 68W.....

There is no LLC south of the island.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[GreenSky]

Here's a current surface plot with 1K visible satellite overlay. Not exactly the best-defined low-level wind field. The new GFDL tracks it south of the DR, avoiding every piece of land for the next day or so then cuts it across the narrow part of Cuba and north to the mid FL panhandle as a 94kt hurricane in 5 days. Interesting. Similar to 12Z GFS track but more left. 12Z GFS may be on to something.

I tried to mention a possible track south of the DR earlier this morning...but I got laughed at by a few who kept saying this was certainly traveling along the north coast and going to miss the DR.

Even if 92L tracked south of DR, this is still going to be a EGOM concern, right?

I don't see how this could spell problems for LA and TX...too many troughs

[kurtpage]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Thanks for the info...just curious...what is PNJ?

[Ivanhater]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Thanks Derek, I know no one in Pensacola knows about this other than the people I talk to..Thanks for getting the word out

[Blown Away]

alright folks please take a minute to look at this vis loop. This should clear up any confusion. I clearly see an "LLC" moving along the northern coast of Dr...possibly on the northern part of the island. All of that deep convection to the south is feeding into it. Check out 18N 68W.....

There is no LLC south of the island.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

18N is on the S side of the DR.

[Ivanhater]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Thanks for the info...just curious...what is PNJ?

Pensacola News Journal...Derek has a weather blog on it

[Thunder44]

alright folks please take a minute to look at this vis loop. This should clear up any confusion. I clearly see an "LLC" moving along the northern coast of Dr...possibly on the northern part of the island. All of that deep convection to the south is feeding into it. Check out 18N 68W.....

There is no LLC south of the island.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

I saw what you saw too, but the recon just tried to close one off there, and it did not.

[kurtpage]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Thanks for the info...just curious...what is PNJ?

Pensacola News Journal...Derek has a weather blog on it

Thanks Ivan...here in Texas I have never heard of it

[Steve]

>>I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Wow. In that case, even with the Vongfong recurvature, it must signify the nose of the ridge into or just cross the FL Peninsula.

Thanks for the heads up Derek.

Steve

[txwatcher91]

Miami, here is the link for the DR radar.
http://www.onamet.gov.do/?s=web&p=1002