ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Derek Ortt]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Thanks Derek, I know no one in Pensacola knows about this other than the people I talk to..Thanks for getting the word out

I'll be updating the column in a few minutes

[GreenSky]

I've already sent out word to PNJ to expect this in the Gulf of Mexico

Derek, do you think that the threat to the Florida peninsula is going down?
Maybe FL panhandle or Alabama might have to deal with 92L or whatever remains of it.

Lastly, in your opinion, do you think 92L will stay south of DR avoiding land interactions for the most part?
I really respect your analysis and look forward to seeing your thoughts.

[cycloneye]

Tony,I think that with this track 92L is taking,the threat to the Penninsula lessens.What do you think?

[luvstorms]

2 days ago, there was a bright pink bird in our tree that was colored like a flamingo. I learned that it was a Roseate Spoonbill. I've lived here 15 yrs and have never seen one here on Hilton Head. I read they are mostly found on the Gulf Coast and Bahamas. Maybe it knew to get out of the way of future Fay???

[ftolmsteen]

Question about the terrain of DR. Where exactly are the high mountain tops located on in the DR? Looks like the center is heading somewhere on the southern or central portion of the island. Or would even general location even matter at this point?

[oyster_reef]

we have a grasshopper hopping around on the ledge outside my 3rd story office.
Big green guy. He keeps looking to the Southest.

[alan1961]

with all that convection going into the caribbean regardless of a center (and where it is supposed to be, and no disrespect to aric) i can see 92L forming a center in the caribbean, theres enough heat in there to boil an egg and not a great deal of shear either, i dont think you can ignore some of those dark reds that are firing up with this mess, ok they might die away again but i think somethings really going to take off in the coming hours once 92L gets a good shot of that cauldron of heat in front of it.. slate me if you want..but JMO

[Canelaw99]

The Roseate Spoonbill (Platalea ajaja, sometimes separated in the monotypic genus Ajaja) is a wading bird of the ibis and spoonbill family Threskiornithidae. It is a mainly resident breeder in South America, the Caribbean, and the Gulf coast of the USA.

The roseate spoonbill often nests in mangrove trees, laying 2-5 eggs.

Though often mistaken for a flamingo by the inexperienced, this species is unmistakable once you know how to identify it. It is 80cm tall, with a 120cm wingspan. It is long-legged, long-necked and has a long, spatulate bill. Adults have a bare greenish head, white neck, breast and back, and are otherwise a deep pink. The bill is grey.

Does make you wonder what it was doing up there....

[canejacket]

I'm not a pro by a long shot, but it looks to me according to the Punta radar that the storm is still moving WNW rather than WSW.

[CrazyC83]

I do agree that if there is a center (a big if), it is either inland or just south of Hispaniola.

[AtlanticWind]

I'm not a pro by a long shot, but it looks to me according to the Punta radar that the storm is still moving WNW rather than WSW.

Looking at a visable loop I have to agree , looks to be on the north coast of the DR

[artist]

interesting, so now we need to know whether it abandoned the Bahamas or the gulf?

[cycloneye]

Best track at 18:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 686W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ,

Position is inland.

[fci]

Here's a current surface plot with 1K visible satellite overlay. Not exactly the best-defined low-level wind field. The new GFDL tracks it south of the DR, avoiding every piece of land for the next day or so then cuts it across the narrow part of Cuba and north to the mid FL panhandle as a 94kt hurricane in 5 days. Interesting. Similar to 12Z GFS track but more left. 12Z GFS may be on to something.

I tried to mention a possible track south of the DR earlier this morning...but I got laughed at by a few who kept saying this was certainly traveling along the north coast and going to miss the DR.

AFM:
So if 92L tracks south of of DR what does that say to an expected future track?

[HURAKAN]

This is becoming a melodrama:

"Stay tuned as the danger to the Yucatan Peninsula intensifies."

[canejacket]

Is it possible that interaction with land/mountains is tearing up the northern half of the storm giving the appearance of a jump to the south?

[GreenSky]

Tony,I think that with this track 92L is taking,the threat to the Penninsula lessens.What do you think?

what peninsula are you referring to, Luis?

[CrazyC83]

Best track at 18:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 686W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ,

Position is inland.

30 kt, based on what? The Recon easily supports at least 45 kt.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Best track at 18:00 UTC:

AL, 92, 2008081518, , BEST, 0, 186N, 686W, 30, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ,

Position is inland.

how far is it inland? If this is inland then it's going to be gone im sure!!!!!!!!

[jlauderdal]

I'm not a pro by a long shot, but it looks to me according to the Punta radar that the storm is still moving WNW rather than WSW.

Looking at a visable loop I have to agree , looks to be on the north coast of the DR

they have a plane out there folks, if there is a center they will find it, don't worry about trying to read sats, that is an art more than anything, trust me