ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

Heat potential and sea surface temps for potential south of Cuba & GOM track.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The 10,000 foot mountains of Hati/DR await this system. It will likely take about 18 hours to cross it. The powerful mid level cirulation might help it a little, but we will see.

[cycloneye]

Tony,I think that with this track 92L is taking,the threat to the Penninsula lessens.What do you think?

what peninsula are you referring to, Luis?

Florida

[DESTRUCTION5]

Tony,I think that with this track 92L is taking,the threat to the Penninsula lessens.What do you think?

what peninsula are you referring to, Luis?

Florida

Id say in intensity yes but track no...but thats just my opinion..

[weatherguru18]

Certainly looks south of DR to me. If you look at the Sat pic closely, it appears to have taken a wsw jog...

[Stormcenter]

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but this is becoming comical.
We have some on this board who think the "center" is north of DR and others
who think it's south and then there are the ones who can't
find any center or don't care because it still "looks" so good it should be a TS already.
All of that in itself should tell you a lot about the current state of 92L.
There is a ton of smoke but NO fire.

[hurricanefloyd5]

are you saying luis that florida is less of a threat from this system???????????

[GreenSky]

Tony,I think that with this track 92L is taking,the threat to the Penninsula lessens.What do you think?

what peninsula are you referring to, Luis?

Florida

Well the GFS and GFDL are hinting at a Charley like scenario, right?

[Air Force Met]

alright folks please take a minute to look at this vis loop. This should clear up any confusion. I clearly see an "LLC" moving along the northern coast of Dr...possibly on the northern part of the island. All of that deep convection to the south is feeding into it. Check out 18N 68W.....

There is no LLC south of the island.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Maybe you clearly see that...but i sure don't. I see it over the eastern end of the DR...near 18.5/68.5...

and BTW...try this vis loop...its one of the best on the commercial side...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=latlon

[physicx07]

With the system not quite a system yet, I believe that a center will form where it's most favorable. IOW with the mountains there and the system not formed, I think it's a good prospect that it will simply form an LLC either north or south of it. Of course if that gets away from the (edit: I mean MLC, not LLC) LLC it'll take a while to set up again. But in this specific case I don't think the mountains are going to make a cyclone not happen.

The 10,000 foot mountains of Hati/DR await this system. It will likely take about 18 hours to cross it. The powerful mid level cirulation might help it a little, but we will see.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not a pro by a long shot, but it looks to me according to the Punta radar that the storm is still moving WNW rather than WSW.

Looking at a visable loop I have to agree , looks to be on the north coast of the DR

they have a plane out there folks, if there is a center they will find it, don't worry about trying to read sats, that is an art more than anything, trust me

There is no "art" to it. In "Well developed" systems you don't have to rely on the recon to tell where the center is if there is one. It's pretty obvious to naked eye when looking at any satellite loop.

[cheezyWXguy]

Certainly looks south of DR to me. If you look at the Sat pic closely, it appears to have taken a wsw jog...

Its not and I have absolutely no idea what youre talking about.

[physicx07]

I think it's kind of funny too. Particularly the news reporters getting so uppity when it's 4 days away from FL anyway.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but this is becoming comical.
We some who think the "center" is north of DR and others
who think it's south and then there are the ones who can't
find any center or don't care because it still "looks" so good it should be a TS already.
All of that in itself should tell you a lot about the current state of 92L.
There is a ton of smoke but NO fire.

[HURAKAN]

Great loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

[luvstorms]

Here's a pic of this lost bird. If I see her again, I'll ask her where she came from so we can know where "Fay" may be heading!

[seaswing]

I think it's kind of funny too. Particularly the news reporters getting so uppity when it's 4 days away from FL anyway.

I'm sorry if I offend anyone but this is becoming comical.
We some who think the "center" is north of DR and others
who think it's south and then there are the ones who can't
find any center or don't care because it still "looks" so good it should be a TS already.
All of that in itself should tell you a lot about the current state of 92L.
There is a ton of smoke but NO fire.

Well, as far as preparation goes... 4 days away is not really that far away!

[Air Force Met]

AFM:
So if 92L tracks south of of DR what does that say to an expected future track?

I think the Fl panhandle or possibly as far west as AL could have issues. ...but somewhere along the west coast of FL would be my guess...

[weatherguru18]

Certainly looks south of DR to me. If you look at the Sat pic closely, it appears to have taken a wsw jog...

Its not and I have absolutely no idea what youre talking about.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

I think your the one that needs to double check. Any LLC, like Derek said, is due east of the DR...and IMO moving slightly south of due west.

[HURAKAN]