ATL: IKE Discussion

[HenkL]

Something I'd like explained while the board isn't so busy. Why is the right side always the dirty side? For instance, someone said the Turks will be on the dirty side. If they are hit dead on, wouldn't every side be dirty since there is water all around? I thought what made the right side dirty was the cane picking up water...all sides will pickup water. Or do I have it all wrong? Trying to learn.

If a storm isn't moving and is well formed, you could have equal winds on all sides, say 100 kt, on the N side from east to west, on the south side from west to east. But when the storm is moving, say with 15 kt from east to west, on the N side the winds will be 100 + 15 = 115 kt, and on the south side it will be 100 - 15 = 85 kt.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Well recon keeps finding slightly lower pressures each pass Matt, now extrap pressure down to 944mbs which have to admit is quite impressive.

But they find slightly lower winds so far. Is this really a CAT-4 at this time?

Based on recon data this is a CAT3!

[jinftl]

The report of a 99 kt...114 mph sustained wind at a reporting station on the Turks & Caicos....and then the station stopped reporting....seems to suggest sustained cat 4 winds are not so unreasonable...and may well have taken place in the eyewall. The NHC makes mention of the 99 kt wind even in their discussion so i tend to buy into it.

Well recon keeps finding slightly lower pressures each pass Matt, now extrap pressure down to 944mbs which have to admit is quite impressive.

But they find slightly lower winds so far. Is this really a CAT-4 at this time?

[mpic]

Something I'd like explained while the board isn't so busy. Why is the right side always the dirty side? For instance, someone said the Turks will be on the dirty side. If they are hit dead on, wouldn't every side be dirty since there is water all around? I thought what made the right side dirty was the cane picking up water...all sides will pickup water. Or do I have it all wrong? Trying to learn.

If a storm isn't moving and is well formed, you could have equal winds on all sides, say 100 kt, on the N side from east to west, on the south side from west to east. But when the storm is moving, say with 15 kt from east to west, on the N side the winds will be 100 + 15 = 115 kt, and on the south side it will be 100 - 15 = 85 kt.

I think the reference was Haiti. If Ike passes to the north of Haiti and is close enough, the left side would be the dirty side in that scenario? There's something my brain isn't catching...more coffee maybe?

Oh, duh! I see the wind difference! I was referring, though, to why it rains more on the right side.

[hiflyer]

Looks like Grand Turk...where the 99 was reported...was about 10 miles north of track....Provo (PLS) looks to have been as much as 40 north....however Salt Cay and the Ambergris group were about 5-10 north...and they are substantially smaller and flatter land masses. The Royal Navy has two ships riding out the storm in the area for post storm assistance. Coming up within hours is Great Inagua....only about 1000 folks normally and salt is the industry...fairly empty island and minimal infrastructure so reports out of there should be quite slow.

[TampaFl]

8:00am postion.

[cycloneye]

[jlauderdal]

I would suspect that some of this model 'shift' may be related to the G4 flight yesterday....takes awhile to get the data in. More flts today

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND
HWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST
EVENING.

[caneman]

Lots of damage

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080907/tropical ... .html?.v=2

[mpic]

Lots of damage

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080907/tropical ... .html?.v=2

From that article: "Great Inagua, which is closer to Haiti than to the Bahamian capital of Nassau, is the southernmost island in the Bahamas archipelago. It is sparsely populated but has the world's largest breeding colony of West Indian flamingos, which migrate through the Caribbean."

I wonder if they left. I find it really interesting that it seems all the birds here leave when hurricanes approach. Noticed that too with Gustav even though it never really made it here.

[TampaFl]

Latest steering for Ike - Notice the ridge axis extending across Central FL into the Central GOM to Texas. That is one big high!

[caneman]

HWRF now considerably EAst
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Emmett_Brown]

SW component of motion is still evident on the loops. Very stubborn... i thought it had finally straightened out to W, but still just S of W.

[jusforsean]

HWRF now considerably EAst
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

The more east this heads will be that much more crappy weather for the south east coast ike is like a headache that just wont go away I am curious to see if this east trend continues when do the other model runs come out? Everyone here was worried about a north west turn i am starting to worry about an east trend can be nasty as well the more east it goes i would believe.

[expat2carib]

Poor Haiti

The pictures are from a town called Hinche in the central plateau of Haiti. This flooding was from Hanna. With everything already soaked more flooding is for sure.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/haiti.shtml

[Ed Mahmoud]

Since 6Z guidance seems back on track with G-IV data in it, I imagine the evacs for the people that just returned to Lousiana probably start again late tomorrow. Today and early tomorrow might be a good time for residents from about Lake Charles to Panama City Beach to beat the rush and stock up on storm essentials. Especially gasoline.

[StJoe]

If math were to come into play to determine Ike's future path, well, let's just say that the law of averages would not be in SoFla's favor. Ike, imo, will finish his wsw-sw current drive by the 5pm advisory, and will start his wnw-nw drive this evening. He will also slow down to about 10-12mph.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hial2]

If math were to come into play to determine Ike's future path, well, let's just say that the law of averages would not be in SoFla's favor. Ike, imo, will finish his wsw-sw current drive by the 5pm advisory, and will start his wnw-nw drive this evening. He will also slow down to about 10-12mph.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

StJoe,can you please elaborate on your thoughts?..may be too early in the a.m. on a Sunday,but I don't follow the logic..

[perk]

HWRF now considerably EAst
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

Even bigger than the GFDL.

[mpic]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.