ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

capepoint · #421 Postby **capepoint** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:12 am

Ok, I'm not liking what I am seeing on the models this morning. I don't see any reason to continue watching this show. Can somebody fast forward us to November???? :wink:

#422 Postby **Trader Ron** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:15 am

jlauderdal wrote:
Trader Ron wrote:EURO is scary indeed. Let's hope they are wrong.

did you run the loop on the euro, did you see what is coming after hanna...

I'll worry about 97 L after Hanna. And it's only August 30.

:double:

#423 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:44 am

I think some big track shifts are coming. IMO missing SFL to the E is becoming more likely than missing SW into Cuba. Also, the SHIPS almost has Hanna as a Cat 2.

#424 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:47 am

I want to see a few more runs before I jump on that bandwagon. I think the models are having trouble with the remnants of Gustav and his interaction with the Ridge... we shall see within a couple days, a la monday.
-Eric

edit:

For example... look at the synoptics... I don't see Hannah heading straight north into that ridge/or the ridge eroding that fast.

Bocadude85 · #425 Postby **Bocadude85** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:48 am

will be interesting to see what the 12z runs show

#426 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:49 am

ericinmia wrote:I want to see a few more runs before I jump on that bandwagon. I think the models are having trouble with the remnants of Gustav and his interaction with the Ridge... we shall see within a couple days, a la monday.
-Eric

im with you, these models are struggling to resolve shear and the pattern, honestly no matter what track nhc comes out with or anybody else im not buying, dammit you are all wrong..

#427 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:52 am

No more SW turn predicted, and TS watches for the Bahamas, which means advisories every 3 hours!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

#428 Postby **ericinmia** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:55 am

It is truly interesting to see the progression of this track... where will we be tomorrow!!?!??! lol :double:

#429 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:56 am

and why I warned to not extrapolate past the 5 day cone....assuming the cyclone will keep going in the same direction. :uarrow:

I never bought the SW through Cuba in the Caribbean track at all.

#430 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 9:57 am

Also, no Hurricane predicted at this point!

#431 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:00 am

ericinmia wrote:It is truly interesting to see the progression of this track... where will we be tomorrow!!?!??! lol

if it is still in tact than keys or south florida strike on its way to the gulf..nap time before college football, i will be back to see what resolution everyone has come up with..i suspect the resolution will be like a bowl of spaghetti

Steve H. · #432 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:30 am

Well no hurricane shown now in the advisory, though they are below all the reliable guidance. The ULL will begin to fill and move out (already is doing this) and Gustav will move inland by then (or stall and weaken) so by t=120, under a still strong ridge, Hanna could ramp up quickly. This is what I fear. They are finally smoothing the curve and all the zigs and zags. With models going up the west coast and East coast, is the answer in between??? Perhaps. But we've got a few days to see.

DESTRUCTION5 · #433 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:38 am

Whos running the 12z GFS?

#434 Postby **storms in NC** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:41 am

gatorcane wrote:and why I warned to not extrapolate past the 5 day cone....assuming the cyclone will keep going in the same direction.

I never bought the SW through Cuba in the Caribbean track at all.

I know I didn't. But I do need to look a little better. I go to the eye Dr Tuesday so the new eyes should help :cheesy:

#435 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:44 am

Heading WNW through the first 36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

jinftl · #436 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 10:51 am

true...but as much as the forecast track has a margin of error, the forecast intensity is even more subject to errors. Not to say that it is automatic that the NHC forecast intensity is low...who knows, it could be high.

Track changes probably mean more than intensity forecasts changes at this point as far as assessing the florida risk.

Evil Jeremy wrote:Also, no Hurricane predicted at this point!

DESTRUCTION5 · #437 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:05 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

Hanna just sitting out there 90Hrs Wed...

CalmBeforeStorm · #438 Postby **CalmBeforeStorm** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:09 am

GFS stalls Hanna from 60 Hours through 102 hours but has her steadily increasing in strength.

DESTRUCTION5 · #439 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:11 am

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:GFS stalls Hanna from 60 Hours through 102 hours but has her steadily increasing in strength.

Agree the GFS is not showing a 60 MP storm for sure here Wed.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

DESTRUCTION5 · #440 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Sat Aug 30, 2008 11:21 am

Looking like out to Sea this run...Trend or Flop?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

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