ATL: IKE Discussion

[perk]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.

If you go to KHOU.com i think they have some info in their hurricane center on storm surge in the Galveston.

[KWT]

Yep looks like Ike hjas just taken a WSW jog once again, looks more and more likely it will indeed make landfall in eastern Cuba now in that sticky out point of eastern cuba.

[Frank P]

Right on track from last nights forecast points... should be close to bottoming out as far as how low it can go.... NHC lowest Lat forecast is ~21.0... last few pixs hints again of west wobble.. wondering if it can get below 21.0...

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.

If model trends back to the East continue with data from the Gulfstream added to the models, maybe you won't need it.

If Ike does make Cat 3 or 4 after Cuba, even if it does head to LA as shown by 6Z GFS and implied by 6Z GFDL (run ends before landfall), there would still be a significant swell on the beaches at GLS.

[wxman57]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.

You can get a copy of the SLOSH model on CD from your local NWS office, possibly. Ours (HOU-GLS) was giving them out a few years ago at the local hurricane conference. It's a very simple program, though. I was talking to Bill Read (ran into him in New Orleans airport - we were taking the same flight) and he told me that the NHC is in the process of rewriting SLOSH from top to bottom. It's really an old DOS program that barely runs on Windows. The new SLOSH, expected next season, will be able to get regular topography updates online and will be much higher resolution.

In any case, If you'd like to see what a Cat 3-4 could do here in GLS Bay, I can run one for you later.

[Sanibel]

Maybe this is the NAM bump prior to the NAM right outlier? (Doubt it)


Dean was right, this is a weird warm-topped storm for its intensity.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Ike seems to have taken a more westerly wobble, I suspect we will see more and more of those westerly wobbles as the track straightens to a due west.

Wobbles here makes such a big difference to how long Ike spends over Cuba. I'll still be very shocked if this is a hurricane when it emerges from Cuba again.

[gatorcane]

I almost see it turning slightly more SW to avoid the island its near.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

My AccuWx PPV Wave Watch, which, IIRC, generates marine predictions from GFS data, shows 36+ foot seas just South of Port Fourchon as Ike approaches landfall, and while the maximum wind scale is 70 knots, it shows 70 knot + winds from about Morgan City to about Grande Isle.


7 foot seas just offshore GLS.

[mpic]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.

You can get a copy of the SLOSH model on CD from your local NWS office, possibly. Ours (HOU-GLS) was giving them out a few years ago at the local hurricane conference. It's a very simple program, though. I was talking to Bill Read (ran into him in New Orleans airport - we were taking the same flight) and he told me that the NHC is in the process of rewriting SLOSH from top to bottom. It's really an old DOS program that barely runs on Windows. The new SLOSH, expected next season, will be able to get regular topography updates online and will be much higher resolution.

In any case, If you'd like to see what a Cat 3-4 could do here in GLS Bay, I can run one for you later.

Thanks, wxman. If it looks to be a direct hit, I will pm you for it. I did find a link that shows surge for Carly.

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Texas%20City.pdf

Of course, much has changed since then, but it gives me goose bumps. Last time I check a few years ago, I'm 14 ft. above sea level. Not pretty.

[KWT]

Yeah Gatorcane its certainly wobbled to the WSW again as it was coming upto the island.

Anyway high resolution sat imagery suggests the eye is just about to come onto land.

[Cristina]

Can someone please tell me how bad do you think it will it be for the people living in Havana? I have relatives living there and they said it was pretty bad when Gustav passed and had a lot of damages.. I'm sure you all know that is not easy in Cuba to get your home fixed after a hurricane since there's no building supplies.. I'm very concerned for their safety.. If it continues on this path, will they feel cat 3 or 4 winds? I would appreciate any input you can give me. thanks!

I dont see a cat 3 or 4 for Havana unless this moves into the Caribbean

Thank you so much for your response!!

[Sanibel]

The cloud top eye is moving over the surface eye. Ike is moving slightly WSW but not as much as the cloud top makes it look.

Cuba will really weaken Ike to where it becomes talk of another bust.

If this goes to Texas I'll be Ed's hand servant for hurricane charts etc.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,how do you have the past 3 hours of movement?

[wxman57]

Anybody have a link that would show results of storm surge for Galveston Bay using different strangth scenarios? Used to have it, but lost in cyberspace.

You can get a copy of the SLOSH model on CD from your local NWS office, possibly. Ours (HOU-GLS) was giving them out a few years ago at the local hurricane conference. It's a very simple program, though. I was talking to Bill Read (ran into him in New Orleans airport - we were taking the same flight) and he told me that the NHC is in the process of rewriting SLOSH from top to bottom. It's really an old DOS program that barely runs on Windows. The new SLOSH, expected next season, will be able to get regular topography updates online and will be much higher resolution.

In any case, If you'd like to see what a Cat 3-4 could do here in GLS Bay, I can run one for you later.

Thanks, wxman. If it looks to be a direct hit, I will pm you for it. I did find a link that shows surge for Carly.

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Texas%20City.pdf

Of course, much has changed since then, but it gives me goose bumps. Last time I check a few years ago, I'm 14 ft. above sea level. Not pretty.

I can tell you that a moderate-sized Cat 3 could put a surge 20-25 feet into west Galveston Bay, inundating Dickinson. A larger Cat 3 to smaller Cat 4 could put about 25-30 feet into that area, and over 30 feet up the Houston Ship Channel.

By the way, living in Dickinson, would you happen to know a man named Larry Gregory? He runs the Lone Star Flight Museum next to Moody Gardens.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well I dont think your wsw wobble lasted, because in the latest frame or 2, I now see a wobble to the wnw.

[Vortex]

The west motion has commenced as Ike is now making landfall on great Inagua..From this point on Ike's movement will be critical in terms of does Ike go inland or parallel the cuban coast. The ramifications are huge!

[sunnyday]

I'm a bit confused as to why the NHC continues to say that S Fl should watch the progress of Ike. I assume they mean the Keys but not mainland Fl because the mainland is out of the cone. Is there something I'm missing in regards to a possible though unlikely turn toward the SE mainland? . I let my guard down yesterday when Ike turned to the SW a bit.

[sfwx]

Check out advisory #5 from Tuesday at 5:00 p.m.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml