ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

[physicx07]

I don't believe so. When 2 low pressure systems get close to each other, one tends to dominate the other. The low pressure point is like a stable solution. If you try to split it, it will try to return to its more stable state. OK, it's just a guess, but sounds good, no?

Is there EVER a possibility that the Low could split and form two LLC's? One North and one South?

That would be fun but unlikely.

I figured that it was unlikley, but is it scientifically possible?

[Cat5x]

cloud tops from convection is finally starting to warm.....

Great news if this trend continues...

LOL what system you looking at ? I don't see them warming.

[ConvergenceZone]

:uarrow:

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

of course the weakening trend is just temporary, but you may be right...

[Stormcenter]

Wow very confusing in here with all these opinions, but it does look more south or convection is developin south to make it look like it:

How ironic that its starting to get its act together now as it interacts with land.If it can survive the islands still relatively intact,it could become a hurricane yet.The GOM has plenty of juice

The "juice (warm water) " is only one ingredient in the receipt for development in the tropics. The upper level winds also play a big part.

[Brent]

for the first time, this MAY be a cyclone

LOL

I have to agree, I think it's a tropical storm finally.

[SouthFloridawx]

192900 1800N 06908W 9548 00487 0095 +221 +170 274011 011 038 005 00
192930 1800N 06909W 9546 00489 0096 +219 +170 277012 012 037 006 00

[Cat5x]

:uarrow:

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

but that is not happening right now, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html just as many as there has been for the last 6 hours.

[Stormcenter]

:uarrow:

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

of course the weakening trend is just temporary, but you may be right...

Not if the center (if there finally is one) stays over the islands for a good period of time.

[Vortex]

upgrade all but a sure thing now with plenty of west winds per recon and in fact may have made landfall closer to 50-55 mph

[HURAKAN]

[canejacket]

:uarrow:

If the cloud tops are warming it means there are less deep reds in the IR loop which means its probably on a weakening trend (maybe)

Well, shows how much I know. I assumed that would point towards strengthening. Thanks for the explanation.

[Air Force Met]

A little Bold statment for a pro. From a non pro is par for the corse. That would really up set a few people. Would make some who really don't have the money go out and buy things when they could use it on their bills. Some people don't think like that. I think till NHC knows where the center is I wouldn't say where it could go.

Sorry if I steped out of place.

For you all in the Islands I hope you stay safe.

Someone asked a question in regards to what would happen IF it tracked south of the DR...I answered ...to the best of my ability...what would happen to the future track (IMO) if this did go south of the DR.

If you would rather us not answer those types of questions...then perhaps you are on the wrong forum.

And if someone does go out and buy things this far out...on a system that isn't even ID'd yet...based on a post in a forum...then a fool and their money is soon parted. They should know better and not be so chicken little. I certainly won't feel guilty over someone's bad decision.

Besides...if you live in a hurricane prone area...you should already have stuff bought ANYWAY. We have our hurricane kit. It sits in our closet...and we eat all the food stuffs at the end of the season

[DESTRUCTION5]

As Miami Said eariler...LOTS of People in the DR will probably die in a situation such as this...

[Zip]

for the first time, this MAY be a cyclone

LOL..ANd may be the shortest lived!

One thing I have learned from watching the tropics, is that the really persistent systems are the ones you really have to watch out for.

What is it that causes one system to seem to have a distinct "personality" is surely just a matter of physics, but, it doesn't seem to explain why some systems survive conditions that have shredded more robust systems.

Of course, we may not evev know what all of those conditions are, at this point in the development of meteorology.

I hate bad science, but i can't help thinking this sucker HAS to be taken seriously.
Zip

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not sure they will upgrade yet since it is onshore

[CrazyC83]

The intensity based on Recon I would personally set at 45 kt. I have doubts about the high SFMR (some almost 60 kt) at this point.

[Blown Away]

[img][URL=http://imageshack.us]
TAFB Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

92L seems to be moving in the general direction of the 24 hour TAFB point. 92L should be off the coast in <24 hours if it makes it to that point.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like JB won't get his NC hit yet, that's ok. What a monster of a mess this system is. I really do hope that the drought stricken south gets some rain out of this at least.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

.DISCUSSION...



SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST SAT-SUN
ALLOWS ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE TO START BUILDING WEST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND SUITABLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.

DISTURBANCE NEAR DOMINICAN REPUBLIC CONTINUES ORGANIZATION AND NOAA
AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND 50 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
DIRECTLY INFLUENCE OUR FORECAST AND THE MEDIUM RANGE REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL DIVERGENCE. CURRENT HPC/NHC TRACK
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE INDICATES A TRACK JUST EAST OF THE STATE AND
THIS IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO REVISIONS LATER TODAY AND DURING THE
WEEKEND.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AS WELL AS INFORMATION
FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS AND MEDIA OUTLETS. YOU CAN ALSO
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS...FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE ON
THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE.





SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST