ATL: IKE Discussion

[PurdueWx80]

i get the feeling ike is gonna lose a lot of its organization as it passes over cuba, obviously from the interaction with land, but also because of the super dry air wrapping around the north and west side of the storm. it's too early to say if that could be the gulf coast's saving grace, especially since ike will have plenty of time to reorganize over the gulf next week.

[wxman57]

wxman57,how do you have the past 3 hours of movement?

6hr - 264 deg / 70nm = 11.7 kts

3hr - 261 deg / 34.5nm = 11.5 kts

[Sanibel]

HWRF goes way back east taking a strong hurricane 170 miles west of the west coast of Florida.

The right side of the storm is growing meaning Florida could get some rain and conditions from this.

[PauleinHouston]

wxman...fellow member in League City here. Novice, but learning thanks to this board! Would the NWS office locally (only 4 miles from me) have a copy of SLOSH?

[Vortex]

If one looked at the location of the storm this morning and then climatology this storm with ridging to the north would be of grave concern to the fL/keys/SFL.

[6SpeedTA95]

If it takes a path right over cuba as the models show I would be surprised if it emerged into the Gulf as a hurricane. The eastern side of cuba is fairly mountainous and the interaction with land for that long a period would almost certainly drop to a tropical storm especially if there are any other mitigating factors in the environment like wind shear.

[wxman57]

By the way, here are the 12Z model plots, BAMs, NAM, and some experimental models removed. Mostly consensus, GFDL, HWRF, UKMET. Definite bend to NW Gulf, all are in agreement. HWRF and GFDL now the right outliers. Can't rule out an eventual final landfall anywhere from upper TX coast to FL Panhandle. Though my gut is saying Louisiana again.

[wxman57]

If it takes a path right over cuba as the models show I would be surprised if it emerged into the Gulf as a hurricane. The eastern side of cuba is fairly mountainous and the interaction with land for that long a period would almost certainly drop to a tropical storm especially if there are any other mitigating factors in the environment like wind shear.

Oh, I think it'll be a very torn up TS when it emerges. Now way it could cross Cuba for 36 hours and remain intact and a hurricane. NHC is reluctant to indicate this because of track uncertainties, and the fact that they're evacuating the Keys. On the very slim chance that Ike takes a WNW jog and skirts the coast of Cuba then it could still remain a hurricane in the FL Straits. Otherwise, it'll probably be barely holding on to TS strength when it passes Havana and emerges into the Gulf.

[jabber]

i get the feeling ike is gonna lose a lot of its organization as it passes over cuba, obviously from the interaction with land, but also because of the super dry air wrapping around the north and west side of the storm. it's too early to say if that could be the gulf coast's saving grace, especially since ike will have plenty of time to reorganize over the gulf next week.

I agree... stornger well developed storms loose much more organization when interacting with land. I always think of a high speed top, one little disruption and it looses its balance.

[cycloneye]

Ike makes landfall in Gran Inagua island.

[mpic]

Thanks, wxman. If it looks to be a direct hit, I will pm you for it. I did find a link that shows surge for Carly.

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Texas%20City.pdf

Of course, much has changed since then, but it gives me goose bumps. Last time I check a few years ago, I'm 14 ft. above sea level. Not pretty.

I can tell you that a moderate-sized Cat 3 could put a surge 20-25 feet into west Galveston Bay, inundating Dickinson. A larger Cat 3 to smaller Cat 4 could put about 25-30 feet into that area, and over 30 feet up the Houston Ship Channel.

By the way, living in Dickinson, would you happen to know a man named Larry Gregory? He runs the Lone Star Flight Museum next to Moody Gardens.

No, I know some Gregory's, but not Larry...Bill.

Yuck. So if I'm still at 14 ft, I would possibly be sitting in 11-16 ft. of water? Geez! The highest I've ever seen the water was in Allison and it was to my knees. Of course, that wasn't a surge. Off to buy a boat...not really cause I'd be gone, but it wouldn't mean coming home soon. Better check my policy.

[6SpeedTA95]

If it takes a path right over cuba as the models show I would be surprised if it emerged into the Gulf as a hurricane. The eastern side of cuba is fairly mountainous and the interaction with land for that long a period would almost certainly drop to a tropical storm especially if there are any other mitigating factors in the environment like wind shear.

Oh, I think it'll be a very torn up TS when it emerges. Now way it could cross Cuba for 36 hours and remain intact and a hurricane. NHC is reluctant to indicate this because of track uncertainties, and the fact that they're evacuating the Keys. On the very slim chance that Ike takes a WNW jog and skirts the coast of Cuba then it could still remain a hurricane in the FL Straits. Otherwise, it'll probably be barely holding on to TS strength when it passes Havana and emerges into the Gulf.

Yeah, if i were them I'd much rather err on the side of caution. And I agree completely if this thing just sort skirts cuba then it could and probably would quite easily maintain its hurricane status.

[jlauderdal]

wxman57,how do you have the past 3 hours of movement?

6hr - 264 deg / 70nm = 11.7 kts

3hr - 261 deg / 34.5nm = 11.5 kts

ike was around 255 last night i beleive

[6SpeedTA95]

Ike makes landfall in Gran Inagua island.

Ohh my the people on that island should be taking cover, but I just worry about those little islands like that. Poor construction and no building code enforcement can make structures quite weak.

[KWT]

Agreed wxman57 Ike probably will weaken a heck of a lot overland but I think conditions in the gulf look very good, I still would be expecting a major given it has 72-96hrs over very favorable waters again...

[wxman57]

wxman...fellow member in League City here. Novice, but learning thanks to this board! Would the NWS office locally (only 4 miles from me) have a copy of SLOSH?

That's where I got my copy - at their yearly convention they used to have at the Pasadena Convention Center. Talk to Gene (MIC) over there if you can reach him. He may have a copy.

[KWT]

Yeah, if i were them I'd much rather err on the side of caution. And I agree completely if this thing just sort skirts cuba then it could and probably would quite easily maintain its hurricane status.

I think there is a greater chance it'll make it to the Caribbean then the Florida straights, thats what I think anyway but I suspect that a track over Cuba is most likely, I'll guess and say this comes out at 45kts....though given conditions I think there is every chance this gets uypto cat-2/3 in the gulf.

[StJoe]

I almost see it turning slightly more SW to avoid the island its near.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Last 2 frames show up heading wnw over Grand Inagua. I personally think, imho, that Ike is not going to show up in Cuba. I know all the models are pointing that way, but then again, well, then again...

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[cheezyWXguy]

If it takes a path right over cuba as the models show I would be surprised if it emerged into the Gulf as a hurricane. The eastern side of cuba is fairly mountainous and the interaction with land for that long a period would almost certainly drop to a tropical storm especially if there are any other mitigating factors in the environment like wind shear.

Oh, I think it'll be a very torn up TS when it emerges. Now way it could cross Cuba for 36 hours and remain intact and a hurricane. NHC is reluctant to indicate this because of track uncertainties, and the fact that they're evacuating the Keys. On the very slim chance that Ike takes a WNW jog and skirts the coast of Cuba then it could still remain a hurricane in the FL Straits. Otherwise, it'll probably be barely holding on to TS strength when it passes Havana and emerges into the Gulf.

I just have this hunch that its going to just ride the coast up, without really moving very far inland. I mean, if it does that itll probably degrade into a cat1 hurricane, but I worry that if the structure changes significantly while being impacted by land, it may come out being an even bigger problem for the gulf when it reorganizes. ie-gfdl's prediction of doubling in size when it gets into the gulf

[robbielyn]

what makes anyone think this is going to skirt the coast? all the models are showing it going inland? at the current track it would be a miracle for this to ride the coast. Poor cuba. But yeah for fl. boo for la this is a no win situation unfortunately for someone. cant wait for the season to be done sure has been busy.