ATL: IKE Discussion

[jcool]

Does it look like Ike will make a NNW, N or NNE turn before landfall on the Gulf Coast? I know this may be too early to tell but frequently happens. Thanks j

[Sabanic]

Does it look like Ike will make a NNW, N or NNE turn before landfall on the Gulf Coast? I know this may be too early to tell but frequently happens. Thanks j

Could happen, and as you said it has before, but too early to tell right now.

[mpic]

wxman...fellow member in League City here. Novice, but learning thanks to this board! Would the NWS office locally (only 4 miles from me) have a copy of SLOSH?

Here's another link ...

http://prtl.uhcl.edu/portal/page/portal/FAO/Student_Tab_Related/Students_Tab_Images/Surge%20Galveston%20Bay%20Clear%20Lake%20Taylor%20Lake_0.pdf

[robbielyn]

If it takes a path right over cuba as the models show I would be surprised if it emerged into the Gulf as a hurricane. The eastern side of cuba is fairly mountainous and the interaction with land for that long a period would almost certainly drop to a tropical storm especially if there are any other mitigating factors in the environment like wind shear.

Oh, I think it'll be a very torn up TS when it emerges. Now way it could cross Cuba for 36 hours and remain intact and a hurricane. NHC is reluctant to indicate this because of track uncertainties, and the fact that they're evacuating the Keys. On the very slim chance that Ike takes a WNW jog and skirts the coast of Cuba then it could still remain a hurricane in the FL Straits. Otherwise, it'll probably be barely holding on to TS strength when it passes Havana and emerges into the Gulf.

I just have this hunch that its going to just ride the coast up, without really moving very far inland. I mean, if it does that itll probably degrade into a cat1 hurricane, but I worry that if the structure changes significantly while being impacted by land, it may come out being an even bigger problem for the gulf when it reorganizes. ie-gfdl's prediction of doubling in size when it gets into the gulf

Doubling in size entering the gulf? youzer. it already doubled in size since i went to bed last night. woke up this morning and said holy moly.

[KWT]

StJoe, looks like due west to me in the last few frames , the northern part of the eye gets a touch distorted making it look like its gaining latitude but the eye itself seems to be heading onland onto the southern side of the island.

Eyewall should be reaching Matthew Town now, hope the damage isn't severe there but no doubt it will be...

[Stephanie]

80% of homes destroyed in Turks;

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080907/ap_ ... al_weather

By BEN FOX, Associated Press Writer
1 hour, 7 minutes ago



PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos - Hurricane Ike damaged most of the homes on Grand Turk island as it roared onto the Bahamas, raked Haiti's flooded cities with rain and threatened the Florida Keys on its way to Cuba as a ferocious Category 4 storm Sunday.

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Turks and Caicos premier Michael Misick said Ike damaged 80 percent of the homes on the main island and that hundreds lost their roofs as the hurricane made a near-direct hit. People have been cowering in closets and under stairwells and "just holding on for life. They got hit really, really bad," he told The Associated Press Sunday morning.

At 8 a.m. EDT, Ike's eye was just east of Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph (215 kph). It was moving west-southwest at 14 mph (24 kph) and was expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches eastern Cuba.

"It's looking terrible," said reserve police officer Henry Nixon from inside a shelter on the Bahamas' Great Inagua Island, where about 85 people huddled around a radio. "All we can do is hunker down and pray."

Great Inagua, which is closer to Haiti than to the Bahamian capital of Nassau, is the southernmost island in the Bahamas archipelago. It has the world's largest breeding colony of West Indian flamingos, and about 1,000 people.

"Everybody is very concerned because of the strength of this one. They want to make sure they survive," administrator Preston Cunningham said after authorities went door-to-door urging residents to seek higher ground. All power was cut as a precaution Sunday morning, and about 135 people took refuge in shelters.

Grand Turk, the capital of the tiny British territory of Turks and Caicos, is home to about 3,000 people, and has little natural protection from the sea and expected storm surge of up to 18 feet (5.5 meters). Rain was driving through in horizontal sheets early Sunday and wind was tearing through some roofs. It was too early to know of any deaths or injuries.

The airport in Providenciales closed after thousands of tourists and residents evacuated from the typically tranquil island chain.

Desiree Adams, along with 11 members of her family, could hear the winds through the storm shutters of her Grand Turk home. The power was out, but they had water and food and battery-powered lanterns if necessary.

"We're all just laying down looking up at the dark ceiling and talking," Adams, a personal adviser to the island chain's chief minister for tourism issues, said by mobile phone.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ike's eye was expected to move over eastern Cuba Sunday night and into central Cuba by late Monday on a track that will likely take it into the Gulf of Mexico.

"These storms have a mind of their own," Florida Gov. Charlie Crist said as tourists were ordered out of the vulnerable Florida Keys Saturday. Authorities planned a phased evacuation for residents Sunday morning, starting with the southernmost islands. "What we have to do is be prepared, be smart, vigilant and alert."

In Louisiana, Gov. Bobby Jindal set up a task force to prepare for the possibility of more havoc after getting slammed by Hurricane Gustav.

Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in southeast Cuba went on "condition of readiness one" early Sunday morning, meaning all ferries were secured, beaches were off limits and private cars were banned from roads at the U.S. base, where some 255 men suspected of links to the Taliban and al-Qaida live in what the military says are hurricane-proof cells.

"People have been forewarned for a day," Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Robert Lamb said. "It's starting to get breezy."

The approach of the hurricane also raised alarm in Haiti, where floods from Tropical Storm Hanna killed at least 167 people by Saturday. Hundreds fled the waterlogged city of Gonaives as Ike approached, and international aid groups were struggling to reach people with little or no access to food or water for days.

"We are very concerned about Ike," said Holly Inurreta of Catholic Relief Services. "Any bit more of rain and Gonaives will be cut off again."

Cuba, which suffered a devastating hit from Gustav, was directly in Ike's projected path, and warned its people to be ready.

Just ahead of Ike's arrival, the Bahamas government had urged tourists to evacuate the sparsely populated southeastern islands and the Royal Bahamas Defence Force dispatched marines to bring food and water to the eastern islands of Mayaguana and San Salvador.

Off Mexico's Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Lowell was moving away from land.

___

Associated Press writer Mike Melia contributed from Nassau, Bahamas

[StJoe]

StJoe, looks like due west to me in the last few frames , the northern part of the eye gets a touch distorted making it look like its gaining latitude but the eye itself seems to be heading onland onto the southern side of the island.

Eyewall should be reaching Matthew Town now, hope the damage isn't severe there but no doubt it will be...

KWT...i'm sure it's just a "wobble", but I just can't see Ike heading more south. Eventually it will turn due w and nw, but for folks living in SoFla, the later the better. Oh, in case anybody is rolling their eyes as they read this, I am not "-removed-", as to speak. Just a single man with 3 boys that is trying to keep them safe...Won't take my eyes off Ike today personally.

[meteorologyman]

wow talk about Deja vu, there is a blow up of moisture in the Yucatan area in the Gulf, could this have an effect on Ikes path
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Thanx Stjoe for the correction I was great with spelling until I took Spanish, and now I got both English and Spanish mixed together for spelling

[Vortex]

Ike's litter sister Josey has certainly awok from her sleep this morning..Models have her following Ike more or less.

[jlauderdal]

StJoe, looks like due west to me in the last few frames , the northern part of the eye gets a touch distorted making it look like its gaining latitude but the eye itself seems to be heading onland onto the southern side of the island.

Eyewall should be reaching Matthew Town now, hope the damage isn't severe there but no doubt it will be...

KWT...i'm sure it's just a "wobble", but I just can't see Ike heading more south. Eventually it will turn due w and nw, but for folks living in SoFla, the later the better. Oh, in case anybody is rolling their eyes as they read this, I am not "-removed-", as to speak. Just a single man with 3 boys that is trying to keep them safe...Won't take my eyes off Ike today personally.

so much for my hurricanes generally hate the land, this thing wants to inflict maximum pain on inagua and lets hope this is a wobble and not something more

[Javlin]

StJoe, looks like due west to me in the last few frames , the northern part of the eye gets a touch distorted making it look like its gaining latitude but the eye itself seems to be heading onland onto the southern side of the island.

Eyewall should be reaching Matthew Town now, hope the damage isn't severe there but no doubt it will be...

KWT...i'm sure it's just a "wobble", but I just can't see Ike heading more south. Eventually it will turn due w and nw, but for folks living in SoFla, the later the better. Oh, in case anybody is rolling their eyes as they read this, I am not "-removed-", as to speak. Just a single man with 3 boys that is trying to keep them safe...Won't take my eyes off Ike today personally.

Looking alittle W to me also just have to see if it should presistn 1KM loop

[PauleinHouston]

wxman...fellow member in League City here. Novice, but learning thanks to this board! Would the NWS office locally (only 4 miles from me) have a copy of SLOSH?

That's where I got my copy - at their yearly convention they used to have at the Pasadena Convention Center. Talk to Gene (MIC) over there if you can reach him. He may have a copy.

wxman...Thanks, will do.

What interests me, the amatuer guy, are the 2 1016Mb highs that are shown in this link. If Ike doesn't gain some latitude quickly, wondering if these highs may keep him skirting southern side of Cuba...more time over water? When you click the link, select NW Fronts. Also of interest is the convergence near the NE tip of Yucatan...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

EDIT: Well, showed 1016 MB highs in NE gulf just south of FL peninsula and one over NW Texas...not no more, lol

[KWT]

Looks like Ike has just made landfall on the southern side of the island, loosk to me like its moving about 265 right now, its lifted up slightly from its track about 3hrs ago thats for sure but still losing a little latitude.

Looks like landfall will be just ENE of Banes, Cuba I reckon.

[KWT]

jacindc, yeah but Gustav got nhit by 20-30kts of shear, thats what really stopped it from strengthening, Ike won't have that hold up.

I think its got every chance given the amount of time over the gulf to get close to major status again...in fact I'll bet this hits as strong as Gustav did...

[cycloneye]

The latest at 9:45 AM EDT. Eye over Grand Inagua island.

[jlauderdal]

South Florida Media Update:

Jim Lushine former NWS Miami forecaster is now working for channel 6, may have been there before today but just saw him now. I believe his specialty is hydro and surge but someone please confirm or correct that. He might be willing to give us more than max on channel 10 but time will tell.

Broward kids rioting in the streets, public school is on for tomorrow which is no surprise, my daughter and friends go private and they are currently looking to the skies for help with a closure tomorrow, i told them to forget it maybe tuesday. I became enemy number 1 with that statement...

[TTheriot1975]

can anyone post a loop for me to see the direction of ike

[Sanibel]

You can see a secondary eyewall slit over Inagua if you look closely:

[expat2carib]

This just in from Caicos Beach Resort on South Caicos as of 8:45AM.

"Most utility poles are down. As far as is known, many of the roofs are off, very strong winds last night. Right now, no one reported hurt. People stayed in shelters or inside. Under strong winds and moderate rain right now. Water level came up high, and its not clear what flooding there may be. Weather still strong so little opportunity to investigate outside. No one in this update has been to town yet. Wind did move some pickup trucks sideways 30-40 feet. Any temporary structures were blown away. Anything that wasn't secured was blown away. The bay side has receded, drawn in to the storm, maybe less than a foot of water left at the moment."

-Jeff

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/tci.shtml

[Vortex]

12Z NAM is even further north. In 18 hours a fair distance of the cuban coast.




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018l.gif