ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[LAwxrgal]

A Cat 2 is dangerous enough.

Darn right. No tropical system, especially no hurricane of any category, should be taken lightly. These things do a lot of damage and are dangerous.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A Cat 2 is dangerous enough.

A cat 2 is sufficient to destroy or roll mobile homes, and Galveston Island, outside the seawall, suffers significant surge flooding from strong tropical storms, let alone hurricanes. There was damage from surge on Galveston Island from strong Cat 1 Claudette, which missed by about 100 miles.


Even a well built home may not be enough if a large tree nearby decides to fall on it...

[canetracker]

it certainly looks like this system is reforming a new center, deep convection is heading N into the MLC

I have to agree, very anxious for recon data.

Not saying it is actually happening, but also noticed it and am glad someone else posted this. I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A Cat 2 is dangerous enough.

Darn right. No tropical system, especially no hurricane of any category, should be taken lightly. These things do a lot of damage and are dangerous.

Allison, a minimal tropical storm, came about half an inch from putting muddy water in my living room, and did flood my yard and garage.

[Ivanhater]

it certainly looks like this system is reforming a new center, deep convection is heading N into the MLC

I have to agree, very anxious for recon data.

Yeah, I suspect the trip over the yucatan will kill off the weaker LLC, while the center couples with the MLC, happens many times over the Yucatan, cant say for sure though, but looking highly possible...

[KWT]

Indeed cat-2's are still pretty hefty...

Anyway deep convection has once again blown up over the center, does look like on the sat.imagery that the LLC has lifted further north with the circulation still tucked into the convection, probably moving around 300-305 still IMO but if the center does tuck even further north then that may be a little to ofr south who knows!

[Recurve]

This is a good view now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[cpdaman]

may not clip as much land, doing very well right now IMO

i think the LLC will become very strong over the next several hours (prior to NE yucatan landfall) and i think she will certainly retain her LLC.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I might not know what the heck I'm talking about. But looking on Dolly's vis. loop. It sure looks like it's heading right for Texas. Right through the Yucatan Channel. Meaning not much or any land interaction of the center.

[Recurve]

Looks like half a doughnut trying to eat a doughnut hole.

[LAwxrgal]

A Cat 2 is dangerous enough.

Darn right. No tropical system, especially no hurricane of any category, should be taken lightly. These things do a lot of damage and are dangerous.

Allison, a minimal tropical storm, came about half an inch from putting muddy water in my living room, and did flood my yard and garage.

Allison is the cause I moved out of my apartment in 2001, well east of where her 'center' came ashore. Now, back to Dolly...

[Rainband]

I think some of you are seeing what you want to see but The ridge will prevent this from going that far north. The NHC is right on point.

[LAwxrgal]

I think some of you are seeing what you want to see but The ridge will prevent this from going that far north. The NHC is right on point.

I agree, I dont think this is going north of Corpus. I think this will clip the Yucatan Peninsula and I think Corpus south to northern Mexico is the target area. NHC is right on here.

[Cape Verde]

This is a good view now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Something is messed up with the tropical forecast points. That map shows it as a Category 1 hurricane right now and a two before it hits Cozumel.

[HURRICANELONNY]

And is the NHC always right on? Forget the models. They will change.

[TTheriot1975]

I thought I read from somewhere...that the high is forcast to weaken about the same time that Dolly enters the gulf. Am I dreaming this?

[funster]

The center is hiding from us. Dolly is so shy.

[KWT]

I'm still seeing low level clouds flowing into that large convective blob so the center must be in there somewhere, probably about half way down. I do think its a little further north tracking then it was before I'd guess around 19.5, not so sure about the longitude.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

This is how it looks to me!

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't see that "Cape Verde."