ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mattpetre]

LowndesCoFire,

Unless my memory fails me, everyone - including NHC - had a lot of egg on their face after Fay.

Meanwhile, back to Gustav.

I dont know...just seems like JB always has his own thoughts until he sees that he is being left behind by others. Havent been keeping up with his forecasts too much. So.......back to Gustav.

Nothing wrong with being an independent thinker if you have sound logic to back your ideas and are right at least some of the time. JB is a cavalier personality, but he has good reasoning and skills to back up what he thinks.

[Stormcenter]

Yes the forecast is for Cat 2 with 110mph wind. +1mph and its a 3....so what is the point?

That's my point..... your common citizen thinks a category 3 is way worse than a 2 so why not forecast a 3? We here on this forum understand that a weak 3 and a strong 2 are nearly the same, but your average citizen doesn't...... they just want to know what category the storm is.

All I was pointing out was that the TREND has been to decrease the winds on about every other advisory....and if that trend continues, we may not even be talking about a cat 2....It just seems like they've been slowly bringing it down. Perhaps the shear they are forecasting is become more apparent, and also couple with that with the fact that they aren't calling for a hurricane now until Friday Night, but we'll see....

It sounds to me like they might be thinking the trough they keep on talking about off and on in their discussions is going to be pretty strong.

[mvtrucking]

Looking at the change from 0145 to 0215(visible loop), it looks as the WSW movement started W, maybe its from staring at it for so long?

[terrapintransit]

Starting to look as good as 95L now.

[Ivanhater]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

[mattpetre]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

IvanHater, I know this sounds crazy to you, but your Avatar actually give you credibility. It's just funny. Looks like a guy who just realized a huge storm was headed his way and halfway cared.

What do you think? LA/TX/AL/MS/FL/MX?

[Sanibel]

Center refire. Could get windspeed up quicker than expected.

[HurricaneBill]

Latest death toll from Gustav:

Haiti: 15
Dominican Republic: 8

Total: 23

[Praxus]

The heavy convection moved towards the center a lot in the last couple of sat frames. Looking better...

[Ivanhater]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

IvanHater, I know this sounds crazy to you, but your Avatar actually give you credibility. It's just funny. Looks like a guy who just realized a huge storm was headed his way and halfway cared.

What do you think? LA/TX/AL/MS/FL/MX?

Lol..I think the safe bet would be Mississppi coast for now..hopefully the models trend west tonihght..sorry yall

[LSU2001]

Center refire. Could get windspeed up quicker than expected.

I agree Sanibel (not that, that means much). I am seeing some very deep convection firing and such a small circulation could spin up quickly. It seems that the ULL and land are having a reduced effect on ole Gus
Tim

[Furious George]

From the latest NHC discussion:

HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

>>>

It does take more than warm waters to really make a hurricane explode, and that may be what Gustav's going to get, at least for a while. Anyone from Tx to the FL panhandle should be monitoring. There is no gaurantee this is going to be a dangerous storm, but it's looking quite likely.

[Javlin]

The heavy convection moved towards the center a lot in the last couple of sat frames. Looking better...

It is increase convection but not really over the center still some shear at play

[tolakram]

[Texas Snowman]

LowndesCoFire - agreed.

As for getting back to Gustav, I'm thinking that the track forecast should scare the pants off of anyone in SE Louisiana whatever the intensity forecast from several days out might be.

Especially since intensity forecasts can be off by as much as 25 mph (as stated in the NHC's 11 p.m. discussion), potentially turning a Cat 2 into a Cat 4 if the current intensity forecast is on the low side.

With the loop current and a couple of warm eddies in the Gulf, not to mention a sobering track towards the Big Easy, I think that this is one storm that should be hyped up.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just a tid bit from the NHC discussion...
AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER
RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY

The trough (If it even develops and makes it down far enough) will not stick around long at all.It is forecast to move in and out being replaced by another high. So that is the reasoning for mentioning shear but it wont last and restrengthening will just be delayed. As I mentioned another high is forecast to build in behind that so conditions will quickly improve. Also with another high coming there is the chance of another Fay type stall which could lead to more time over water and with light upper level conditions we all know what that could lead to...

[LSU2001]

From the latest NHC discussion:

HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.

>>>

It does take more than warm waters to really make a hurricane explode, and that may be what Gustav's going to get, at least for a while. Anyone from Tx to the FL panhandle should be monitoring. There is no gaurantee this is going to be a dangerous storm, but it's looking quite likely.

Well if the upper level anti-cyclone verifies all the ingredients will be in place for RI in my opinion. Now the possible shear in the gulf could knock down intensity but if it is strong enough it could kinda pump up its own anti-cyclone and help minimize shear. I ain't gonna let my guard down till this one is on land I guess.
Tim

[tolakram]

The heavy convection moved towards the center a lot in the last couple of sat frames. Looking better...

It is increase convection but not really over the center still some shear at play

Wow, the new shortwave format has come up useful for a change.

[TexasSam]

Hey that's cool! kind of like fireworks goes BOOM then slowly burns away...

[yzerfan]

With the LA state of emergency, keep in mind that it doesn't mean the governor is thinking "OMG! We're all gonna die!". A state of emergency is a legal/procedural document that puts certain laws and procedures into play that aren't allowed under normal conditions.

It varies from state to state, but a SoE will typically do things like activate anti price-gouging laws, allow for increased police and fire overtime pay that's outside of normal budgets, and move resources more easily from department to department (example- have a public works department lend a fire department a bucket truck without having to go through masses of paperwork) It's all the little legal administrivia just as much as it's about the big things the public sees like activating contraflow plans.

There are summers where Florida spends four+ months under state of emergency declarations for the mere threat of wildfires, even when not much is actually burning at a given moment.