ATL: IKE Discussion

[wxman57]

How well can the Galveston sea wall protect the city from storm surge? Im thinking it could withstand a Cat.2 direct hit right?

This huge westerly shift in Ikes track does not bode well for CC or Houston for that matter. A hit on Freeport would be bad!

Houston may not be so lucky this time around with Ike. We're due for a hit anyways.

Houston area had a hurricane hit last year.

I must have missed that one. Unless you mean Humberto that hit Port Arthur, about 90 miles east of here.

[VeniceInlet]

Is it fairly safe to say that the Central and down W.coast of Fl.is in the clear now?

Just keep an eye on the 3 day NHC cone and discussions. Right now we're just barely out of the cone, but even if we stay that way, that doesn't mean we won't feel some effects from this storm. I anticipate we'll get rain and wind here given the current path the NHC has shown. How much and how intense is yet to be determined, and of course the track could change to anywhere within the cone.

[wxman57]

MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...

00Z Canadian does as well among others.

Yesterday's 12Z Canadian took Ike to Mexico. The 00Z run to the western FL panhandle. Not very consistent, I'd say.

[pablolopez26]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

Forget to take your meds this morning?

The NHC has done a phenomenal job with their tracks this season, and if you look at the 5 day probables, youll see where this storm is heading. So i have a right to be concerned. And a right to discuss where i feel the storm may be heading. Instead of bitching about it, maybe you should calm down a little and be more open to discuss things in a civil human way, not like some immature 8th grader that got his feelings hurt.

Plus HWRF is ummm whats the word "unreliable" at best...

*rolls eyes*

[sealbach]

here i am on vacation in colorado thinking this thing was going well east of houston...i don't like what i see so far at all

[Weatherfreak000]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

Getting a grip and being prepared are two different animals. After the Riata evac fiasco for those south of Houston, we are concerned. Lighten up...imo

You realize we're talking 8AM Wednesday for evacuations right? Three days from now.

I'd respect this argument from a Meteorological standpoint if this didn't seem like blind assertiveness on a landfall that is over 100 hours away. I mean jesus we're talking Gustav just exited Jamaica right now...


And frankly...Texas lost significant model support. 6Z is all East. GFDL, GFS, HWRF, take your pick.


I just wanna see a little bit less assured "Doom and Gloom" for any specific area here.

[Dean4Storms]

I noticed the 06z GFDL starts to take IKE toward the weakness and then has him just missing it. I think this first trough is going to be a close call one way or the other.

[chris_fit]

I noticed the 06z GFDL starts to take IKE toward the weakness and then has him just missing it. I think this first trough is going to be a close call one way or the other.

Speaking of the GFDL, due out in about 2 hours right?

[Dean4Storms]

I noticed the 06z GFDL starts to take IKE toward the weakness and then has him just missing it. I think this first trough is going to be a close call one way or the other.

Speaking of the GFDL, due out in about 2 hours right?

Yes, about 12:30 cst

[cycloneye]

11:32 EDT:

[HURAKAN]

The Assault of Great Inagua.

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say the HWRF did really well with Gustav nailing him down to a SE to central LA landfall 3-4 days out.

[Jevo]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

Forget to take your meds this morning?

The NHC has done a phenomenal job with their tracks this season, and if you look at the 5 day probables, youll see where this storm is heading. So i have a right to be concerned. And a right to discuss where i feel the storm may be heading. Instead of bitching about it, maybe you should calm down a little and be more open to discuss things in a civil human way, not like some immature 8th grader that got his feelings hurt.

Plus HWRF is ummm whats the word "unreliable" at best...

*rolls eyes*

better be nice... you may get reported.. i got reported for saying troll

as far as the HWRF goes... its GIGO.. only as good as the GFS

[RL3AO]

Jeez...your internet goes out for three days and it goes from a recurve to a possible Western GOM storm.

[VeniceInlet]

if you look at the 5 day probables, youll see where this storm is heading.

With all due respect, this isn't true. I don't know how many times it has to be said by people here or by the NHC itself that the five day forecast isn't "probable" and that it's subject to large error. The people here who are saying we have no idea what will happen three or more days after it encounters Cuba are correct. The three day NHC forecast has proven to be more reliable but even so it can and has changed in the past. Everyone needs to pay attention and just watch the NHC updates as they are posted.

And these people who are saying it went from recurve to GOM in 3 days, I don't think the NHC ever plotted a recurve east of FL.

[StJoe]

You realize just how completely far away the storm is?

Geez...it's 5+ days out. Get a grip here guys


HWRF says Panhandle...that means it can STILL GO ANYWHERE.

Forget to take your meds this morning?

The NHC has done a phenomenal job with their tracks this season, and if you look at the 5 day probables, youll see where this storm is heading. So i have a right to be concerned. And a right to discuss where i feel the storm may be heading. Instead of bitching about it, maybe you should calm down a little and be more open to discuss things in a civil human way, not like some immature 8th grader that got his feelings hurt.

Plus HWRF is ummm whats the word "unreliable" at best...

*rolls eyes*

um, are you ok? wow, take a breather man, ur getting a little upset. We are all offering our own opinions. While we may not agree with one another, there really isn't a reason for your actions, so just take a chill pill and relax a little, alritey thennnn!

[tolakram]

[Dean4Storms]

To ALL fellow Florida posters.

Can we give the Texas posters a break? We were all over Ike when he was well out in the Atlantic second guessing the models that had him turning north out to sea well out 4-5 days. The Texas posters are just as concerned now as we are/were as many models have swung Ike in their general direction.

Why not understand how you would react in this situation if a Cat. 4 hurricane was 4-5 days out east of Florida and many of the models (not all) were pointing it in your direction?

[hurrican19]

How well can the Galveston sea wall protect the city from storm surge? Im thinking it could withstand a Cat.2 direct hit right?

This huge westerly shift in Ikes track does not bode well for CC or Houston for that matter. A hit on Freeport would be bad!

Houston may not be so lucky this time around with Ike. We're due for a hit anyways.

Houston area had a hurricane hit last year.

Incorrect, the Beaumont/Port Arthur had a hurricane hit last year. Houston area (Including Galveston) didn't get much of Humberto, because it did as not expected noved NE Towards Sabine Pass/High Island area. Houston/Galveston had a rain and a bit of wind, but I would NOT consider that a hit on Galveston or Houston, as small as Humberto was.

[Sean in New Orleans]

As a serious veteran of these systems, I pray to God that this storm does not hit Houston directly. This could darken that city for a month.