ATL GUSTAV: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[mattpetre]

The heavy convection moved towards the center a lot in the last couple of sat frames. Looking better...

It is increase convection but not really over the center still some shear at play

Wow, the new shortwave format has come up useful for a change.

Still... I would hazard to guess that the actual llc is under the north part of that deep convection.

[mattpetre]

I kinda want to stay up for RECON at this point. 2am EST right?

[LowndesCoFire]

Just came across this.

[Sanibel]

18.5N-75.2W

[mattpetre]

18.5N-75.2

So still S. of even the newest forecast points. This could really throw a wrench in current predictions.

Amazing thing is that Jamaica really hasn't seen any rainfall yet.

[jasons2k]

Just my $.02 before I call it a day:

Lookie what happened when it finally cleared the peninsula and the inflow wasn't all jacked-up.

Nobody should let their guard down or feel any better about the latest intensity forecasts. It's miniscule and bound to change again.

We have a redeveloping closed cyclone with a decent low pressure about to hit the best part of the basin with very favorable atmospheric conditions. There really isn't a whole lot else to add. See you on the flip.

[CrazyC83]

What a difference 3 hours makes!

My guess is 45 kt / 995mb right now, but the Recon will find out for sure.

[mattpetre]

Just my $.02 before I call it a day:

Lookie what happened when it finally cleared the peninsula and the inflow wasn't all jacked-up.

Nobody should let their guard down or feel any better about the latest intensity forecasts. It's miniscule and bound to change again.

We have a redeveloping closed cyclone with a decent low pressure about to hit the best part of the basin with very favorable atmospheric conditions. There really isn't a whole lot else to add. See you on the flip.

Goodnight Jasons... do you think if it happens S. of Jamaica this could actually hurt intensity as far as TCHP goes or is it insignificant enough to discount?

[mattpetre]

What a difference 3 hours makes!

Yeah, glad I decided to watch that "chick flick" with my wife and come back after it left the "Arms of Haiti".

[RL3AO]

Just my $.02 before I call it a day:

Lookie what happened when it finally cleared the peninsula and the inflow wasn't all jacked-up.

Nobody should let their guard down or feel any better about the latest intensity forecasts. It's miniscule and bound to change again.

We have a redeveloping closed cyclone with a decent low pressure about to hit the best part of the basin with very favorable atmospheric conditions. There really isn't a whole lot else to add. See you on the flip.

My thinking is that it can handle the 10 to 15 kt of shear. It just needed to get away from Haiti.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just a tid bit from the NHC discussion...
AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER
RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY

The trough (If it even develops and makes it down far enough) will not stick around long at all.It is forecast to move in and out being replaced by another high. So that is the reasoning for mentioning shear but it wont last and restrengthening will just be delayed. As I mentioned another high is forecast to build in behind that so conditions will quickly improve. Also with another high coming there is the chance of another Fay type stall which could lead to more time over water and with light upper level conditions we all know what that could lead to...

Any opinions?

[HouTXmetro]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

[Javlin]

18.5N-75.2

So still S. of even the newest forecast points. This could really throw a wrench in current predictions.

It's not that far S guys.The mets on the board have said to IF2 at night to see low cloud circulation.The upper clouds cool thats what you see on regular colored IF you are not seeing the surface winds.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[TexasSam]

what is the time frame for the satellite eclipse tonight?

[jasons2k]

Goodnight Jasons... do you think if it happens S. of Jamaica this could actually hurt intensity as far as TCHP goes or is it insignificant enough to discount?

In the long term, it won't matter. Plenty of heat content NW of Jamaica to continue the ramp-up to what I believe will still be a major hurricane.

I'll add the disclaimer in light of the very recent NHC numbers, but I strongly believe this will be a major.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[jasons2k]

I *think* sateliite out from 12-2. OK, really bedtime now.

[Stormcenter]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

Are you saying Gus is actually moving SSW?

If that's the case wouldn't that throw a major wrench at the projected NHC path?

[Wthrman13]

Its going to die over eastern cuba!..what a difference a few hours make on this forum

Why am I not surprised?

In fact, I actually would have been surprised had something other than this convective blowup not happened...

There is still some shear present, and it may struggle to re-intensify for a day or so, but it's not going away anytime soon.

[Texas Snowman]

News flash - Gus isn't dead and it looks like he's getting off the mat.

Just checked the latest IR shot and wow, this thing appears to be getting his act together quickly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Also looks to me that with good outflow channels, the size of the system has increased quite a bit since yesterday. Any thoughts there?

Night all - back up early to see what Gus is up too.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Maybe I'm paying attention to the strong convection, but this appears to be DIVING SSW.

Are you saying Gus is actually moving SSW?

If that's the case wouldn't that throw a major wrench at the projected NHC path?

If this is the case, Gus could run into more trouble with the mountains of Jamaica. I know it was mentioned earlier, but, we'll be looking at a different scenario if Gus goes directly over Jamaica as opposed to skirting the Northern boundaries.