ATL: IKE Discussion

[stayawaynow]

To ALL fellow Florida posters.

Can we give the Texas posters a break? We were all over Ike when he was well out in the Atlantic second guessing the models that had him turning north out to sea well out 4-5 days. The Texas posters are just as concerned now as we are/were as many models have swung Ike in their general direction.

Why not understand how you would react in this situation if a Cat. 4 hurricane was 4-5 days out east of Florida and many of the models (not all) were pointing it in your direction?

Exactly and only 3 nights ago we were not sleeping because a Cat 3 was heading toward us.

[Stormcenter]

It's funny how some posters pick the models that "fits" their track theories.
By the way the "HWRF" is NOT a bad model and believe me the NHC knows it.

[meteorologyman]

I think the trough will get longer and stronger, look @ the vapor image you can see moisture building right to it and you can see it stretching just press on NWS fronts

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[wxman57]

One of my coworkers pointed out that he found just one hurricane that formed near where Ike did and made it into the Gulf. Let's not hope for a repeat:

[pablolopez26]

...We are all offering our own opinions

Which is what i was doing before weatherfreak there got his panties all in a bunch for me saying Ike was something Houstonians needed to watch out for. If anything, he/she needs to be more respectful of other peoples opinions not i.

/rant off

[Jevo]

It's funny how some posters pick the models that "fits" their track theories.
By the way the "HWRF" is NOT a bad model and believe me the NHC knows it.

hehe welcome to storm2k my friend...As with anything always refer to meteorologists both from the NHC, you local news, and those that are nice enough to be here with us amateurs

[TampaFl]

Cuban radar - Ike moving west?

[wxman57]

It's funny how some posters pick the models that "fits" their track theories.
By the way the "HWRF" is NOT a bad model and believe me the NHC knows it.

I've see Naomi Surgi's presentations at the various AMS/IHC/NHC conferences last year (she's the lead scientist in the development of the HWRF). The HWRF does look promising, but it has a ways to go before it surpasses the GFDL consistently. It seems to have more trouble in the 72-120hr time frame. They're continuing to tweak the model physics to try to make it better.

[Portastorm]

One of my coworkers pointed out that he found just one hurricane that formed near where Ike did and made it into the Gulf. Let's not hope for a repeat:

How about the irony? The Great Galveston Storm of 1900, called "Isaac's Storm" ... and here we have Hurricane Ike in 2008. Wow!

[BreinLa]

I suggest everyone use the personal forecast disclaimer when makeing a forecast or your post will be deleted, you all know the rules, if you don't you better go read them

[cycloneye]

11:45 AM EDT:

[pablolopez26]

BTW, i have noticed though the HWRF model has shifted east, could it have found a weakness in the ridge of high pressure?

[Enzo Aquarius]

1154 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

ATLANTIC WATERS FROM OCEAN REEF TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60
NM...FLORIDA BAY...GULF WATERS FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM WEST OF
CHOKOLOSKEE TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY

GMZ032-033-072200-
GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
1154 AM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
NEARSHORE WATERS A LIGHT CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS A MODERATE CHOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE. NORTHEAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. NEARSHORE WATERS ROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO 10 FEET.
NEARSHORE WATERS VERY ROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUESDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. EAST WINDS 30 TO
40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 KNOTS. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET.
NEARSHORE WATERS EXTREMELY ROUGH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

[Myersgirl]

How about the irony? The Great Galveston Storm of 1900, called "Isaac's Storm" ... and here we have Hurricane Ike in 2008. Wow![/quote]


"Isaac's Storm" Fantastic book by the way

[gtalum]

One of my coworkers pointed out that he found just one hurricane that formed near where Ike did and made it into the Gulf. Let's not hope for a repeat:

Ike came from a different direction, but it does look like he's starting to move toward a similar track.

NOTE: I am a complete amateur and you should not use this post as any indicator of what Ike will actually do.

[StJoe]

BTW, i have noticed though the HWRF model has shifted east, could it have found a weakness in the ridge of high pressure?

Yeah, thats why I posted the quote from the NHC.

[KWT]

Wow wxman57 that was quite scary, indeed there is some similar factors. The other thing to note is it was also just a TS coming off Cuba yet it made it to category-4 strength, let that be a lesson that Ike will have *plenty* of time to restrengthen.

[pablolopez26]

Yeah, thats why I posted the quote from the NHC.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what the other models pick up in their next run later today.

[VeniceInlet]

As a serious veteran of these systems, I pray to God that this storm does not hit Houston directly. This could darken that city for a month.

I lived in west Houston and was there for Alicia in 1983. I remember how bad the near-downtown areas were hit, lots of downed oak trees, and there was a lot of damage from tornadoes. The near downtown areas like Montrose, the Heights, 5th ward, Museum area, etc., were without power for 2-3 weeks in that muggy Houston heat. I was lucky, I was out by Dairy Ashford and we were without power for less than 24 hours. I still remember watching the trees lean almost in half and then when the eye went over and the wind changed direction and the trees lean almost over the other way. And watching all the transformers blow in the neighborhood. I was fairly naive about hurricanes back then and didn't realize how serious this storm was as it approached us. Also, Alicia didn't have the chance to generate a big storm surge, so something like Ike could be far worse if it hits.

I hope when this thing does hit it's in a more uninhabited area down the coast somewhere.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
C. 07/1500Z
D. 21.6N 74.1W
E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

The plane should have left an hour ago, right?