ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[weatherrabbit_tx]

That GFDL run takes 94L over Jamaica and hardly weakens it, so I doubt the 932mb in the SGOM will verify, it better not!. Also, not to bash JB but didn't he say Fay would be a Carolina storm?....MGC

Ivan danced around it.....but I dont think Jam would do much to a system with a well established core...IMO...

didnt do much to allen in 1980, however it went north of the island, gilbert just buzzsawed back in '88 and didnt do much to weaken it......believe gilbert was a cat. 3 went it went over jamaica.

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah, Jamaica isn't much of a show stopper. It tends to do little in the way of disrupting systems, be they weak or strong.

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL....A lot of folks on here are wrong about every invest, depression, storm & hurricane. And a lot of us are wrong about sports predictions as well.

Way too early for any "lookouts" but things are shaping up for some GOM action.

[hurricanefloyd5]

This is going to be something else A storm this could be.

[hurricanefloyd5]

160 MPH Hurricane, looks like another interesting few days ahead.

Can I get this model in a loop please??????

[SouthFLTropics]

This is going to be something else A storm this cold be.

Huh??? Sure, whatever you said??? LOL

SFT

[HurricaneRobert]

Wow, it's just awesome that GFDL has a category 5 at the end, and HWRF has this:

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow, it's just awesome that GFDL has a category 5 at the end, and HWRF has this:

Now that is what we call not a lot of agreement between the models...At this point in time as far as intensity and track goes we could just throw darts at a board and probably come just as close.

SFT

[cajungal]

This is starting to remind me a little of Lili or Isidore. Taking the tip of the Yucatan channel. It all depends how far west it goes before the ridge breaks down, sending it north. I think the Central Gulf Coast really needs to watch this one.

[USTropics]

Can I get this model in a loop please??????

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Wx_Warrior]

Putting all your eggs in one model is not very smart. With a H building over W/Cen GOM...well, you know the drill.

[vaffie]

The HWRF model always seems to destroy storms that are anywhere near land. Unless the storm is predicted to be in the center of the Gulf of Mexico and is strongly initialized, it rarely predicts rapid intensification--even when it is warranted. The GFDL model on the other hand often goes to the other extreme. The GFDL seems to be the more reliable model generally however, and so I tend to lean towards it more. When both models produce rapid intensification, that is when you get very concerned--and that's what we saw for Katrina and Rita if I recall correctly.

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS nada again...ridge built over CEN GOM....Nite....EURO in a few...

[attallaman]

ivan ... is that a real photo of you?!?!?! I smile everytime i see it.....

Lol yes, can't beat 99 cent margarita night!

Looked to me like you were slurpin' on a Barks.

[Stormcenter]

Wow, it's just awesome that GFDL has a category 5 at the end, and HWRF has this:

Now that is what we call not a lot of agreement between the models...At this point in time as far as intensity and track goes we could just throw darts at a board and probably come just as close.

SFT

I'm not sure what is "awesome" about a Cat. 5 anywhere in the tropics but I wouldn't bet the house
on that actually happening. The GFDL has a hsitory of "over estimating" the strength of tropical
disturbances. The point being I wouldn't cancel my vacation in Carribean just yet.

[blp]

00Z CMC has it crossing Hispaniola and emerging in the Southern Bahamas.

144hrs



http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

[Stormcenter]

GFS nada again...ridge built over CEN GOM....Nite....EURO in a few...

I rest my case for at least tonight.

[southerngale]

Wow, it's just awesome that GFDL has a category 5 at the end, and HWRF has this:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/hwrf/2 ... /slp21.png

Now that is what we call not a lot of agreement between the models...At this point in time as far as intensity and track goes we could just throw darts at a board and probably come just as close.

SFT

I'm not sure what is "awesome" about a Cat. 5 anywhere in the tropics but I wouldn't bet the house
on that actually happening. The GFDL has a hsitory of "over estimating" the strength of tropical
disturbances. The point being I wouldn't cancel my vacation in Carribean just yet.

Perhaps I picked up on the sarcasm wrong, but I don't think he was actually saying there was something "awesome" about a Cat. 5 anywhere in the tropics. I think his point was what the GFDL had compared to the HWRF.

[blp]

00Z NOGAPS crosses Hispaniola and heads North into Bahamas. Continues to feal a big weakness.

120hrs

[Stratosphere747]

00Z NOGAPS crosses Hispaniola and heads North into Bahamas. Continues to feal a big weakness.

It better start moving to the NW, and I mean yesterday for the NOGAPS to verify. I can't throw out the possibility of this moving across Cuba and towards the Bahamas. Hispaniola? Just don't see it happening unless some radical reformation takes place...