ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Air Force Met]

The LLC shifted fromthe W and is now right smack in the center like I said.

Congrats...you get a lollipop.

[cycloneye]

News off-topic.Breaking news at talking tropics regarding what it may be the next named storm.

[dixiebreeze]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
20/1745 UTC 18.6N 84.5W T2.5/2.5 DOLLY

[Janie2006]

Thanks for the detailed graphics, Wxman. I had posted this rather detailed response to YankeeGirl's question, but the board ate my post. Gah.

Anyhow YankeeGirl, as you can see form Wxman's post, the ridge is fairly strong (unless Dolly can maneuver around a bit) and the system will bring deep moisture up from the tropics. What you get is an increase in precipitable water values, which means an increase in local POPS. Voila...increased precipitation chances.

[ronjon]

Dolly has the makings of a very large storm. NHC has already found TS force winds more than 150 miles from the center. They project TS force winds across a diameter of 300 miles at landfall. I concur with most that another LLC is forming under the MLC and heavy convection. The storm is forming nice banding features with a nice outlfow channel developing to the north along Cuba. Might see the heavy convection over Honduras link up from the south later on tonight. Overall shes getting her act together and I think the NHC is being very conservative on their intensity forecast.

[Javlin]

The LLC shifted fromthe W and is now right smack in the center like I said.

Congrats...you get a lollipop.

Always loved your humor there AFMet

[gatorcane]

News off-topic.Breaking news at talking tropics regarding what it may be the next named storm.

NHC expects this to be a depression quickly according to the next TWO...off topic but wow are the tropics heating up

A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY.

[wxman57]

Ok, one more post before dinner. To give you all an idea what might steer Dolly, I plotted the 700-400mb steering level winds (10,000-20,000ft) from the 18Z GFS for the next 4 days. Here are the runs with High centers and Dolly's position indicated. Fairly strong ridge to the north, but Dolly could easily track into the lower to mid TX coast if the timing is right. The ridge weakens a bit on Tuesday and early Wednesday then builds back in late Wednesday/Thursday.

Too tired to post this in the models section. If someone wants to - go for it.

Oh, and it looks like the S2K server is crashing again. Can't post.

[Steve]

8pm advisory should be out soon. I'm waiting. The 11 will be the big ticket advisory and discussion.

[Duddy]

Dolly has the makings of a very large storm. NHC has already found TS force winds more than 150 miles from the center. They project TS force winds across a diameter of 300 miles at landfall. I concur with most that another LLC is forming under the MLC and heavy convection. The storm is forming nice banding features with a nice outlfow channel developing to the north along Cuba. Might see the heavy convection over Honduras link up from the south later on tonight. Overall shes getting her act together and I think the NHC is being very conservative on their intensity forecast.

Understatement of the year.

[alan1961]

250m modis shot of Dolly.http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin ... B_PROD=qkm

[Steve]

19.3/85.5

[Jagno]

This is not the time for the board to blink and play with our emotions. LOL

[Wx_Warrior]

Maybe about as far north as Corpus.

[Smurfwicked]

Maybe about as far north as Corpus.

My best guess would be the center of the probability cone should be somewhere close to Port Lavaca, Tx.... Once again just my opinion based on the current direction I see and my very minimal understanding other factors at play.

[KatDaddy]

The Carla of 2008!!!!

Ok thats my crazy post for the evening. In reality this looks to a very large system. Before its all said and done we may TS conditions along the Upper TX Coast.

[Vortex]

I hope residents of northern Mexico and SE Texas are taking this storm very serious. There is no reason in my opinion for Dolly to be any less than a cat 2 at landfall...Nearly ideal conditions will present themselves in the BOC/Southern gulf and all residents in the forecasted projected impact zone need to begin to prepare for a major hurricane...

[gatorcane]

I hope residents of northern Mexico and SE Texas are taking this storm very serious. There is no reason in my opinion for Dolly to be any less than a cat 2 at landfall...Nearly ideal conditions will present themselves in the BOC/Southern gulf and all residents in the forecasted projected impact zone need to begin to prepare for a major hurricane...

Agreed and glad you brought it up. Let me add that residents within the CONE should take warning. Don't concentrate on the line!

[HouTXmetro]

Im in Houston, I'll be praying for our fellow Texans to the South.

[ronjon]

The buoy at 20N-85W has shown about a 4 mb drop in pressure over the last 5 hrs. Now down to 1008. Isn't that the lowest pressure reported by NHC? Seems that this buoy may be very close to the relocated center. By the way, 15 ft wave heights already.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42056&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=0&time_label=GMT